Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

About Last Night… That Wasn’t Any Fun

Oh man, that was bad. So, so bad. Compounded by the fact that it looked like the boys were actually pulling themselves up by their stirrups and getting back to respectability that was rough.  Not even a tequila induced stupor could wipe that gem from memory, so if you’re strong enough, let’s relive it together, shall we?

Keeping it short and sweet, Sanchez started the game fresh off of the DL looking nothing at all like himself. Struggling to find the zone and laying in flat fastballs, he wasn’t the pitcher that we have come to expect. Being squeezed a bit, and poor defense didn’t help his cause either, and before the second inning was done, Sanchez was gone and the Jays were down by eight. There wasn’t much more from there, the Jays not even coming close to closing the the gap and the Astros cruising to a 12-2 victory.

Starting Pitchers Lines:

Aaron Sanchez (L):  1.2 IP 7 H 8 R 5 ER 4 BB 0 SO

Charlie Morton (W): 6 IP 4 H 1 R 1 ER 2 BB 3 SO



I mean, this section is here, so I guess it’s got to go to someone. As such, Josh Donaldson led the way last night adding 2.9% to the Jays chances of winning. The bringer of rain was one of only two Jays to put up a positive WPA.


Well, this one is pretty obvious. Before the Jays even had a chance to go up for their second round of ABs they were already down at 8-0. With that in mind, Aaron Sanchez led the way with a whopping -41.9% through is 1.2 IP.

Lineup Contribution:

Even though the lineup wasn’t to blame in this one, they didn’t put forward a positive outing either. All in all, the bats combined for a -7.9%

Pitching Contribution:

You might want to look away for this one… With Sanchez doing the majority of the damage early on, it wasn’t easy to damage the teams winning chances any more significant. The relievers did their parts, though, and brought the end of game total down a little bit more to a total of -42.1%

Highest Leverage At Bat:

From here on out, this half of the recap could have been written after the second inning. The highest leverage Blue Jays at bat came with them already down two runs. In the bottom of the first with one away and Josh Donaldson on base, Justin Smoak came to the plate with an opportunity to start a rally and bail out his pitcher. With only a 1.20 LI, Smoaks at bat registered in as the highest for the Jays for the rest of the game.

Highest Leverage Opponent At Bat:

In the bottom of the second inning, George Springer got the opportunity to hit in the highest leverage at bat of the game. With Evan Gattis and Nori Aoki on base due to walks and one away, Springer was presented with an opportunity to add to the then 2-0 lead. Despite being the highest leverage at-bat of the game, it still only registered in at a leverage index of 1.47. Springer made no mistake either, hammering a three-run shot and putting the Astros up by five.

Highest Impact At-Bat:

Justin Smoak’s high leverage at bat also doubled as the highest impact. Unfortunately, instead of blasting a game tieing home run or starting a really to get the Jays right back in it, Smoak hit into a double play that hurt the Jays chances of a win by 5.2%

Highest Impact Opponent At Bat:

The highest impact at bat for the Astros came right off the hop in the first inning. With George Springer standing on third and two away, Carlos Correa stepped to the plate wiping tears from eyes. Apparently, he was able to fight through the mental scarring of being “shown up” hitting a homerun off of Sanchez to put the Astros up 2-0 increasing their chances of winning by 16.8%. The Astros never looked back.


(h/t to fangraphs.com for WPA chart and statistics)

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  • lukewarmwater

    Being an oldie but goldie I do try to keep up with the whiz kids on the stats, but the highest leverage of the game at 1.47 Could some poor mortal soul translate that for me and millions of others. Now on the positive side obviously Sanchez , surprise, surprise, surprise, is in spring training as was Happ when he came back as was Osuana when he recovered from his injury. So yeah poor outing not helped by several questionable calls behind the plate. So yeah Sanchez wasn’t good whoopy do against the best team in baseball. But here is where the good part comes in. All of a sudden Joe B is now ready for the bull pen. Yeah, yeah he gave up a home run to the power hitting astros but you can see immediately our bull pen is that much better. By the way the Jays smoked the Astros who are strutting and styling and priming and trying to do the Ric Flair strut when they have won sweet dick all as Tulo and our M.V.P. hit 3 run homers to take 2 of the first 3 games of the series. Btw Andrew, it appears teaming up with the nation maybe wasn’t such a good idea as few responses day after day , night after night. The same goes with the leaf nation as I along with others have found a better sight than the leaf nation. Just suggesting you go back to your old format. But as I stated what do oldies but goldies like us know, WELL A HELL OF A LOT.

    • Dustin Reddon

      No troubles! LI isn’t referred to often, but keeping it simple is very easy to understand. All it does is assign a number to quantify how intense, suspenseful, or how impactful that situation may be in that game. To quote FanGraphs, “An LI of 1 is average. Anything above 1 is above average and anything below it is below average. We bin the situations into three groups (Low: 0-0.85, Medium: 0.85-2.0, High: 2.0+)”

      In the scope of this game, there were no really intense situations, because the highest LI fell within that “medium” bucket.

      If you want to go into the nitty gritty, Fangraphs has a very thorough explanation here: