FanGraphs doesn’t think the Blue Jays will win the World Series in the next five years

The future ISN’T bright, according to FanGraphs. Based on a variety of criteria, FanGraphs put together a list of the teams who are most likely to win the World Series in the next five years. Despite having a top-five farm system and the best prospect in baseball, the Blue Jays aren’t one of them.

Here are the criteria I’ve considered to produce these rankings: short-term MLB talent, long-term MLB talent/upper-minors prospects, lower-minors prospects/trade capital, payroll ceiling, MLB coaching/front office, and amateur signings (draft and international).

Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers, who are currently making their second of back-to-back World Series appearances, and Astros, who won the World Series last year, are at the top of the list. After them we have the New York Yankees, who have put together a great farm system, cheap, young Major League talent, and, of course, boast infinite money. Somewhat surprisingly in fourth place is Cleveland, who has had a hard time getting over the hump since losing to the Cubs in the 2016 World Series. The new challenger, sitting in fifth, is the Atlanta Braves, who have an excellent farm system and enjoyed a breakout season this year. The Cubs and Red Sox then round out the final two spots on the list.

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Where are the Blue Jays?! After the top seven, the article breaks down some honourable mentions who could be on the list but didn’t make the cut. The Angels are mentioned because of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Phillies are mentioned because of their high payroll ceiling and bevy of prospects, fucking Milwaukee gets a shoutout, and then Oakland and Tampa Bay are mentioned because of their Moneyball thing.

Then, finally, in the same category as COLORADO and MINNESOTA, the Blue Jays are mentioned…

The Jays have a high payroll ceiling and two top-10-overall prospects.

Obviously I’m being facetious here and this isn’t actually something to worry about, it just serves as a reminder that despite boasting some very good prospects, the Blue Jays aren’t going to have any easy trip to winning a World Series. They play in a division with New York and Boston, who will always be good, and Tampa Bay, a team who manages their minuscule budget in an incredibly clever and progressive way. There’s also the Astros, who are built to be good for quite some time, and a bunch of other good teams in the National League.

Anyways, since we’re talking about the future, let’s dive into Baseball America’s prediction of what Toronto’s lineup will look like in 2022. (Hat tip to Jays from the Couch for finding this) 

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C – Danny Jansen

1B – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

2B – Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

3B – Jordan Groshans

SS – Bo Bichette

LF – Teoscar Hernandez

CF – Kevin Pillar

RF – Cavan Biggio

DH – Randal Grichuk

That’s, uh, something. They predict a 33-year-old Kevin Pillar will still be manning centre field, Randal Grichuk, who has two years of control left, will be the designated hitter, while the completely-lost-out-there Teoscar Hernandez is in left field. Vlad and Bo are predictably on the roster, as are Danny Jansen and Lourdes Gurriel, who made good impressions as rookies in 2018.

I mean, okay, yeah, I don’t think this roster presented by BA is going to win a World Series.


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  • Regulator Johnson

    Meh I think it’s hard to envision how this team will look on the upswing because they’re currently on a big downswing. I don’t think anyone would have put the 2016-17 Phillies on any future WS list, but now their ‘path’ is starting to look a little clearer.

    The real garbage to get mad about is BA’s 2022 Jays roster…

    • TomHorn

      Agreed, people who speculate that far into the future have nothing better to do because there will be players on the Jays that arent even in the organization right now so its a big waste of time.

  • Oz Rob

    I would place zero faith in this sort of projection. Why do they even bother with this sort of crap given that baseball is so unpredictable. As for us winning the World Series in the future. Sure, that’s the goal, but to be honest, I would be happy with us being a perennial playoff team (at least for more than two years).

    • Regulator Johnson

      To be fair, the 2015/16 team should have been competitive in 2013/14 as well. Got really unlucky for a few years.

      Core minus giant Donaldson sized hole was all there.

  • dolsh

    If Hernandez and Pillar are still in the outfield given the presence of DSJ, Alford, Palacios, Ramirez, McKinney, Wall, Noda, and maybe even Fields in the minors, I agree with them.

  • Peter Gowdy

    The Baseball America projection for 2022 is a freakin joke. The Jays will make no trades or sign no free agents in the next five years? Teo playing outfield while Grichuk is the DH? Ha ha ha!