The Toronto Blue Jays are the heaviest underdog they have been all season, even though Trent Thornton is coming off a start where he suppressed one of the best offenses in baseball. The Blue Jays are the +280 underdog (wager $100 to win $280) on the MLB odds for Friday with the Boston Red Sox coming back as a -360 favorite (wager $360 to win $100), while there is an 8.5-run total at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The Blue Jays are 2-10 in their last 12 games as the underdog against the Red Sox, according to the OddsShark MLB Database, with the OVER hitting in seven of those matchups.
Blue Jays at Red Sox | OddsShark Matchup Report
The total has either gone OVER or been a push in each of the Blue Jays’ last eight road games as a moneyline underdog of +200 or more, and they are also 2-10 in their last 12 such matchups. Oddly enough, though, the Red Sox are 5-3 in their last eight games as a moneyline favorite of -300 or more.
Be that as it may, the Blue Jays have won in four of the last five Thornton started when they were an underdog on the road. The rookie righthander, who is facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career, is 2-5 with a 4.36 earned-run average in 15 starts. However, he is coming off an outing last Sunday where he pitched six-plus innings to earn credit for the win against the Houston Astros.
The Red Sox are countering with lefthander Chris Sale, who is 3-7 with a 3.49 ERA this season although his traditional numbers belie an American League-leading 2.80 FIP (fielding-independent pitching). Over 16 career games against the Blue Jays, Sale is 7-4 with a 2.67 ERA and has averaged 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
Bettors will have to weigh the head-to-head trend that has seen Blue Jays-Red Sox clashes at Fenway Park typically result in a lot of scoring, versus taking a flier on Thornton. He has big righty/lefty split and the Red Sox could be minus their two best lefty power bats with Mitch Moreland on the injured list and Rafael Devers (right hamstring) having an injury situation to monitor.
As a team, Toronto ranks 30th in MLB in on-base percentage (.288) and 27th in slugging percentage (.386). Boston is fourth in OBP (.340) and 11th in slugging (.447). The Blue Jays’ team ERA of 4.82 is 21st while the Red Sox’s 4.22 figure ranks 11th.
The Blue Jays have not named a starting pitcher for Saturday’s game, while left-hander Brian Johnson, who is a 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA since returning from an elbow injury that cost him the first two months of the season, starts for Boston. Johnson has a 5.56 ERA in four career starts against Toronto.
Sunday, Marcus Stroman, who is 4-9 with a solid 3.23 ERA, starts for the Blue Jays while the Red Sox counter with Rick Porcello, who is 5-6 with a 4.31 ERA. The total has gone UNDER in four of Stroman’s six away starts this season at online betting sites.
Following this series, the Blue Jays host the New York Yankees in a three-game series beginning Monday.