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Alek Manoah will be a key factor for the Blue Jays’ rotation late in the season
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Photo credit: © Kamil Krzaczynski - Imagn Images
Veronica Chung
Jun 4, 2025, 07:00 EDTUpdated: Jun 3, 2025, 21:29 EDT
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It wasn’t all that long ago when the Toronto Blue Jays were struggling to get to .500, let alone get above the mark. Despite all the concerns and doubts over this team, Toronto now owns a winning record heading into last night’s game (31-28) and is still on the right side of the mark even after last night’s ugly loss to the Phillies. 
The Athletic’s Blue Jays beat writer Mitch Bannon shared a post on X earlier this week, comparing the 2025 Blue Jays with the 2024 Blue Jays. While the current version of the team is faring far better than last season’s iteration, there aren’t as many salient differences between those two teams.
Other than the bullpen ERA and wRC+, most statistics from Bannon’s post indicate that these Blue Jays are eerily similar to last year. This isn’t all that surprising, given that Toronto still has a negative run differential of five, one of the worst among AL East teams, aside from the scuffling Baltimore Orioles. 
Another part of this comparison that stands out is the virtually similar overall ERA. Both versions of the team ranked 20th so far in this category, indicating that the Blue Jays could use more depth in pitching to support the team for over 100 games. With veteran starter Max Scherzer out on injury and former AL Cy Young award finalist Alek Manoah recovering from Tommy John surgery, the team has operated with just four regular starters, while opting to use a variety of pitchers and different arms to fill in the void of a fifth starter.
So far, that has paid off if we are strictly looking at the number of games the Blue Jays secured, despite their lack of pitching depth. However, this isn’t comforting. Baseball Reference’s Pythagorean win-loss record for Toronto is 29-30. As we’ve established before, this Pythagorean win-loss record is more indicative of how the team will perform moving forward, which doesn’t bode well for the Blue Jays as they face convincing playoff contenders for the rest of this month. 
This is where Manoah’s recovery comes in. Manoah’s healthy and secure return is the single best way the Blue Jays can ensure they have enough support for a starting rotation while giving them more chances to win. Since Toronto doesn’t have any other pitchers in the minors who aren’t pounding on the door to take that role and Spencer Turnbull is ramping up to be MLB-ready, having Manoah back, even for a month, could potentially change the Blue Jays’ fortune. The 27-year-old isn’t slated to make his comeback until sometime in August, but having a starting pitcher of his calibre could bear the same desire as a trade deadline acquisition to finish out the season. 
At the same time, this is also contingent on how Manoah tweaks his pitching mechanics, among other things. The version of Manoah that Toronto needs is the one who recorded a 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings pitched with 180 strikeouts. If the Blue Jays intend to taste the playoffs and redeem their cursed 2024 season, they can’t afford to have a floundering starter in their rotation, aka the 2023 version of the right-hander. 
Pitching is a crucial foundation for any team with playoff aspirations. Not many teams in the postseason have made it deeper into the stage without a strong pitching performance–good pitching comes from consistency, strength and resilience. 
The Blue Jays need more sustainable offensive performance to sniff the playoffs (in case you were wondering, the team ranks 20th in home runs and 13th in slugging heading into last night, according to FanGraphs), but enhancing their pitching is on the same critical level because the team has operated with an incomplete rotation for roughly 60 games. If the ERA ranking remains similar for Toronto, its chance of getting to the playoffs will gradually diminish simply because not many teams fare well in the playoffs or get the opportunity, with pitching that skews towards the bottom of the league. It also cannot bank on Scherzer returning and being back to full health, or having their veteran arms be willing to go on short rest throughout the year. 
Not having Scherzer or Manoah, thankfully, hasn’t loomed too large for the 2025 Blue Jays. The only uncomfortable part of that news is that no one knows when Toronto may struggle to score and pitch, given the ebbs and flows of how this campaign has unfolded. When that happened all at once last year, that was ultimately the nail in the coffin for the Blue Jays. If the squad is interested in avoiding what transpired last season, preparing Manoah and getting some heavy lifting done, even at the end of the season, will set the team apart from other contenders. Turnbull can also occupy this role and he’s great depth to also have around, but he can also operate out of the bullpen if needed, and a return of Manoah and his 2022 form would go a lot further for this squad. 
That’s what Alek Manoah is to the Blue Jays. It’s certainly a heavy burden for a younger pitcher to handle, especially after a physical and emotional roller coaster ride, but if there’s anyone who can handle pressure, it’d be the West Virginia alum himself. Three punchies! Let’s go! 
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