Blue Jays vs Orioles 07/06/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

There are strong OVER trends for both teams as the Toronto Blue Jays head into Baltimore, but starting pitching is always the X-factor. The Blue Jays are road betting favorites and the Baltimore Orioles are home underdogs with an 11-run total on the MLB odds for Tuesday night at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how sports betting works).

The Blue Jays are 11-5 in their last 16 games against the Orioles as an away favorite, with the OVER hitting eight times with two pushes. Toronto also has an 8-3 record over 11 recent games as the away favorite, with the OVER hitting six times. Baltimore is 5-11 over its last 16 games as an underdog at home, with the OVER hitting 12 times. The Orioles are also 5-15 in their last 20 games against AL East counterparts, with the OVER hitting 12 times.

The Blue Jays, who have a 43-39 record, are the second-highest scoring team in MLB at 5.16 runs per game. They also rank second in OPS at .781. Four Blue Jays have an OPS of at least 1.000 against Baltimore, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1.246), Reese McGuire (1.091) and George Springer (1.062). On the mound, Toronto is 13th in overall earned-run average (3.97) and 12th in relief ERA (3.92).

The Orioles, who have a 27-57 record, are 20th in run scoring, averaging 4.12 per game. They rank 19th in OPS at .696. Ryan Mountcastle (1.434 OPS vs. Toronto) and Cedric Mullins (1.298) both have four home runs already this season against Toronto. On the mound, Baltimore is 30th in overall ERA (5.48), and 25th in relief ERA (4.80).

Blue Jays lefthander Steven Matz (7-3, 4.60 ERA, 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings) will start in Tuesday’s matchup, while the Orioles have not announced their starter. Over his career, Matz’s teams are 12-7 as an away favorite at betting sites when he starts. This will be his first career appearance against Baltimore.

Lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu (7-5, 3.65 ERA, 7.1 SO/9) will start on Wednesday opposite Orioles righthander Matt Harvey (3-9, 7.34 ERA, 7.2 SO/9). The total has gone UNDER in seven of Ryu’s last 10 starts on the road when his team was favored. Ryu has a 3.13 ERA in 31.2 career innings against the Orioles. Harvey’s teams are 2-8 in his last 10 home-underdog starts with a 5-5 split in OVER/UNDER totals. He has a 3.71 ERA over 17 innings against the Blue Jays.

Rookie righthander Alek Manoah (2-0, 2.70 ERA, 10.6 SO/9) will start opposite lefthander Keegan Akin (0-4, 7.46 ERA, 8.3 SO/9) on Thursday. The Blue Jays are 5-2 with the OVER hitting four times in Manoah’s seven starts this season. He has a 5.79 ERA in 9.1 innings against Baltimore, with all of the earned runs coming in a game on June 19 where he was ejected for hitting Maikel Franco with a pitch after giving up a home run. The Orioles are 1-6 in Akin’s last seven starts, with the OVER going over in the last four. He also has a 7.71 ERA in 11.2 career innings against Toronto.

After this series, the Blue Jays visit the Tampa Bay Rays for three games.