Eloy Jimenez’s long-term deal with the White Sox sets a framework for Vlad Jr.

Eloy Jimenez hasn’t played a game at the Major League level yet. He’s coming into 2019 as baseball No. 3 ranked prospect, behind only our Large Adult Son Vlad Jr. and San Diego’s top prospect Fernado Tatis Jr. That’s good enough for the White Sox.

Much like the Phillies did last last year with prospect Scott Kingery, the White Sox have signed Jimenez to a long-term contract, making the whole keep him down for a month to win an extra free agency year thing completely moot. Jimenez, who was expected to spend the first few weeks of the season with Chicago’s Triple-A team for the sake of service time manipulation, now has a contract that keeps him const-controlled for up to eight seasons.

So, assuming the Sox manipulated Jimenez’s service time this spring, he would be under control for seven seasons before he could reach free agency. This means the Sox are buying one year of free agency and all of Jimenez’s arbitration years for no more than $77 million.

For a comparable, let’s look at Kris Bryant, a very good player who was victim of the Chicago Cubs playing the service time game in 2015. Bryant spent about a week-and-a-half in Triple-A at the beginning of the 2015 season, went on to win Rookie of the Year that season, then won MVP in 2016, helping the Cubs to their first World Series in a billion years.

The Cubs paid Bryant $10,850,000 in 2018 and will pay him $12,900,000 in 2019. He’ll be eligible for arbitration two more times after 2019 and 2020 and then he can hit free agency for the first time after the 2021 season. So, in his first four years, the Cubs have paid Bryant about $25 million.

Bryant set a record earning that $10.85 million figure in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Josh Donaldson currently owns the record for most money dished out in arbitration, which, as we know, came when he was awarded $23 million last January. With that in mind, Bryant could easily pull something like $40 million combined over his next two arbitration years.

So, is it worth it to sign a prospect to a long-term deal to avoid doing this dance every year? Obviously we have no idea if Jimenez is going to become the player his scouting report suggests, but if he does, the White Sox have themselves a pretty solid deal here. A star player like Bryant who had his service time manipulated to garner seven control years will (assuming he doesn’t sign an extension before hitting free agency) be paid something like $65-$70 million over those years.

The Sox get to avoid pissing everyone off by sending Jimenez down at the beginning of the 2019 season, they avoid a potential grievance filing down the road, and they don’t ever have to worry about going to arbitration with their most important player. Based on the Bryant model, they’ll also be getting a cheaper-than-expected year in the eighth year of this deal.

Of course, they’re also taking a massive risk here. While Jimenez was a beast in Double- and Triple-A last year, prospects aren’t sure things. Like with Vlad Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr., there’s no way to look into a crystal ball to see if these players are going to live up to the hype. Take a look at Rusney Castillo in Boston, for example.

Personally, I love the idea of pushing all the bullshit aside and investing in a potential superstar like Eloy Jimenez. We won’t see it here with Vlad before the season starts, but it’s something I hope the Blue Jays explore if he does hit the ground running. Jimenez is two-and-a-half years older than Vlad, so the comparison isn’t perfect, but this still sets an interesting framework for what a deal for Vlad could look like if the Jays decided to completely dive in.