GDB 59.0: Middle of Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation continues to dominate

Photo credit:Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Zach Laing
10 months ago
The Blue Jays are back at Citi Field Saturday afternoon in what’s being projected as a tight game between Toronto and the New York Mets.
The Mets opened as favourites in this game, but money has poured in on the Blue Jays at an incredible rate. At the time of writing, the line has moved in favour of the Jays with a staggering 87 percent of the public money on them to win.
This could be due to the fact that Toronto put together one heckuva performance on Friday night off the back of Chris Bassitt’s ninth quality start of the season — something we’ll talk about more below — but also because the Jays have seemed to bust out of their slump. In their last seven games, they’ve gone 5-2 outscoring their opponents 28-18.
Another reason we could see money piling in on Toronto is because New York has historically struggled in the month of June:
2022: 13-12, -.520 W-L%. -15 DIFF. .623 season-long W-L%.
2021: 15-15, .500 W-L%. -8 DIFF. .475 season-long W-L%.
2019: 10-18, .357 W-L%. – 21 DIFF. .531 season-long W-L%.
2018: 5-21, .192 W-L%. -41 DIFF. .475 season-long W-L%.
2017: 14-14, .500 W-L%. -13 DIFF. .432 season-long W-L%.
2016: 12-15, .444 W-L%. -16 DIFF. .537 season-long W-L%.
2015: 12-15, .444 W-L%. -18 DIFF. .556 season-long W-L%.
2014: 11-17, .393 W-L%. +2 DIFF. .488 season-long W-L%.
2013: 11-15, .423 W-L%. -12 DIFF. .457 season-long W-L%.
2012: 15-13, .536 W-L%. +52 DIFF. .457 season-long W-L%.
Say what you will, but this has been a long trend here for the Mets of major mediocrity in June, so it makes sense to see the public on Toronto here. It’s worth noting, too, the only years where the Mets had a better June W-L% than season-long W-L% were in 2021, 2017 and 2012.
Back to the Jays rotation, however, as the middle of the order has been nothing short of tremendous for the team this season. Something that has been imperative has been the fact that they’re giving the Jays quality start after quality start and are going deep in games.
Heading into Saturday’s games, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt both have posted nine quality starts in their 11 starts — good enough to be tied for second among all starters in the bigs. The next Blue Jay is Jose Berrios, whose five quality starts this year have him tied for sixth.
In terms of longevity, all three have been able to go deep into games. Gausman leads the pack with 75.0 IP while Bassitt is close behind with 74.0. Berrios is near with a solid 65.1 IP of his own.
On an innings-per-start basis, Gausman’s 6.3 has him tied for fourth, while Bassitt’s 6.2 ties him for fifth. Berrios, again, isn’t too far behind with 5.9. For the Jays, all three of these numbers are well above the league average of 5.2 innings-per-start and it’s a huge reason why the Jays are sitting where they are right now.
Yusei Kikuchi’s game has cooled in his last four starts with his ERA ballooning to 6.75 from the 3.35 it was during his first seven starts of the year. Yet, the Jays have still gone 2-2 in those lastest four starts.
Manoah’s game has been all over the place this season and truth be told, if Toronto could get even league-average pitching from him the rest of the way, that would be a huge boon.
All in all, we’ll get to see if Berrios can continue his strong play as of late this afternoon.
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. EST
Weather: 18C. 27 KM/H winds. “Decent pitching weather, cool’ish with winds in from center at 15mph (24 kmh).” – RotoGrinders.
Toronto Blue Jays: 31-27, 9.0 GB, 2.5 WCGB, +28 DIFF.
New York Mets: 30-28, 3.5 GB, – WCGB, -9 DIFF.
Odds via Betano:
Moneyline: TOR -120; NYM +102.
Starting pitchers:
TOR: Jose Berrios RHP — 5-4, 11 GS, 3.86 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.225 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 0.5 bWAR.
NYM: Tylor Megill RHP — 5-3, 5 GS, 54.0 IP. 4.67 ERA, 5.28 FIP, 1.593 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, -0.1 bWAR.
  1. G Springer (R) RF
  2. B Bichette (R) SS
  3. V Guerrero Jr. (R) 1B
  4. B Belt (L) DH
  5. M Chapman (R) 3B
  6. W Merrifield (R) 2B
  7. D Varsho (L) LF
  8. A Kirk (R) C
  9. K Kiermaier (L) CF
  1. B Nimmo (L) CF
  2. F Lindor (S) SS
  3. J McNeil (L) 2B
  4. P Alonso (R) 1B
  5. B Baty (L) 3B
  6. S Marte (R) RF
  7. D Vogelbach (L) DH
  8. M Canha (R) LF
  9. T Nido (R) C

Need to bide the time until first pitch?

Tune into the latest edition of Blue Jays Nation Radio as the crew talks about the Jays’ latest series against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.


Discover Betano.ca – a premium Sports Betting and Online Casino experience. Offering numerous unique and dynamic betting options along with diverse digital and live casino games, Betano is where The Game Starts Now. 19+. Please play responsibly.

Check out these posts...