Hot Takes From The Farm: Week Fourteen

Honestly, I’m not sure this is even a thing that people care about anymore as a marker of potential vulnerability but I’m going to make a post out of it anyway. The rest of the baseball world has moved on to metrics that I only understand insomuch as it goes to comparing one player to another but I’ve been too lazy to teach myself a really clear comprehension of them. So I freely admit there’s probably some metric that fleshes out this observation in ways beyond what I’m about to say. This, really, is just an observation not a conclusion: a lot of the Blue Jays best young hitting prospects strike out a LOT. Here’s a list of hitting prospects in general prospect status order including only those who’ve struck out more than once per game played. (Just players on full season teams for the same of sample size)

Anthony Alford: 76K/62k
Griffin Conine: 60/38
Kevin Smith: 92/71
Riley Adams: 84/68
Cullen Large: 72/68
Logan Warmoth: 66/60
Chavez Young: 75/70
Ryan Noda: 91/75
Hagen Danner: 76/64
Brock Lundquist: 74/70
Jake Brodt: 101/72

I’ll stop because I’m getting into the marginal guys now. Of the top 50 on my list, 27 are hitters but six of those are short-season players so half of the rest are on the above list. Also, Rowdy Telez, Brnadon Drury, and Teoscar Hernandez – though not “prospects” fall in this category. Is his sub-optimal? Does anyone care anymore? Oh well, on to the team notes…

If you look at the Bisons’ leaderboard you don’t really find a lot of pure prospects. For example, the best OPS on the team (.999) not counting Vlad’s nine game total, is the property of a 29 year old journeyman OF/1B Patrick Kivlehan who’s got more than 130 MLB at bats in his past. Bo, as good as he is, is seventh on the list behind current and former major leaguers – and Kivlehan. Buffalo is on a roll, but of the 14 hitters with at least 30 games played only four are still on the team, have rookie eligibility, and are considered potential major leaguers. You know by now that Billy McKinney is rejoining the Blue Jays today in Boston, give him credit. In the 10 games since he came back down he hit .412 for the Bisons. Also worth a salute, in 12 July games Socrates Brito has hit .357/.412/.714

Speaking of guys who need to bring their Buffalo skills to Toronto, let us consider Thomas Pannone. In 21.2 IP over 5 outings, he’s given up 16 hits and six walks while striking out 2 and achieving a 1.66 ERA. The eternal question, of course, always is whether a guy figured something out in AAA he can take back to the majors with him (ala Lordues Gurriel Jr) or is he just taking advantage of less talented opposition. The K rate speaks to the former but we really can’t know until it’s tried. On the other end of the equation is Sean Reid-Foley. I don’t know if it’s a mental thing at this point or what, but with waves of good pitching coming up the ladder behind him  he’s got like 10 weeks now to prove he can handle a regular starting role or he’s gonna find himself in a bullpen next spring. if not before. In his last 16.2 IP, he’s walked 15 and allowed 12 earned runs. You can’t strike out enough batters to justify that.

Looking at season totals, there’s only two guys in this lineup that can feel good about their results, and both of them had long cold streaks during June. One is C Riley Adams, who was hitting .313 after his call-up when June 1 rolled around, but a 1-for-26 run ruined that hot start. He seems to have regained his momentum though, He’s hitting .345 in his last eight games. The other is CF Forrest Wall who had pushed his season OPS right up against .800 before slumping into the last weekend before the ASB on a 5 for 40 skid. In his last 3 games he’s 8 for 12 though, so maybe that’s over with. The most notable absence from the offensive leaders has been Kevin Smith who’s bat was ice-cold for over 150 at bats at one point (18 for 153 in 51 games). Maybe he’s figured it out? He’s hitting .361 in his last 10 games, including four HR over this last weekend.

Nate Pearson returned from his Futures Game appearance to start for the first time in the second half yesterday, going three innings. Ross Atkins commented over the break that the previous innings restrictions were coming off so presumably they’ll be ramping up his pitch count. Thanks to an injury his last 5 inning appearance was on June 9.  To this point he’s only accumulated 52 innings pitched this season. If he makes his regular turn the rest of the season that’s nine starts in which he could conceivably reach 100 IP though that’s slightly ambitions. If he goes back to the AFL in September he could add maybe 20-30 more so if all goes well around 120 on the season. That would set him up for a lot less restrictions next year. Atkins also hinted some of that work this year may well come at AAA so that’s pretty ambitious in itself. Ptrick Murphy’s reset continues. Since he came back with a modified delivery his ERA is 3.65 and he’s struck out 16 in 12.1 IP.

Sweet-swinging catcher Alejandro Kirk had a cool spell in June, but over his last 14 games he’s slashing .356/.453/.467 with more walks than strikeouts again. Your regular cal Stevenson update goes like this: in 61 games since he turned things around in late April he’s slashing .309/.406/.408, also with more walks that strikeouts. OF Ryan Noda went into a slump in the first week of may (when he was hitting .286 and had an OPS of .815) that took him all the way down to .233/.741 by the end of June. He seems to have found a grove again though, not only is he hitting .286 in July but six of his eight hits have gone for extra bases.

On the mound, it must be acknowledged that lefty Nick Allgyer has taken a little tumble. In his last two outings he’s given up 11 runs in 9.1 IP but of course, extreme small sample size caveats apply. The steady supply of good news continues to come from Joey Murray who has yet to give up more than 2 runs in any FSL appearance. Also, if you’re not keeping your eye on Maximo Castillo you should be.He’s had only one really bad outing this year (giving up 7 runs). Take that away and his ERA on the season is 2.61 with a 1.05 WHIP.

Conine’s strikeouts notwithstanding, he keeps raking. He’s now second on the team with 11 homers in just 38 games (team leader Hagen Danner has 12 in 64 games). Danner, a catcher drafted in the second round in 2017, is an interesting case. In 18 games and 60 at-bats in may he hit .100 (not a typo) with two doubles among his six hits, and in 18 games and 60 at bats in June he hit .250 but with two triples and seven homers among his 15 hits. He also walked once in may and 12 times in June. Turned a corner? To early to say but in 10 July cames he’s hitting .212 and has but one home run.

With Jordan Groshans still on the IL, Eric Pardinho becomes the most highly touted prospect on this team. Early on he’s living up to the billing, with a 1.93 ERA in his first three outings with as many strikeouts as innings pitched. This is a big boost to a rotation that has, apart from the departed Josh Winckowski and Joey Murray, been a swamp of inconsistency. But some of the other guys are finding something of a groove lately. Sean Wymer, a 2018 fourth round choice who had some buzz after the draft, has had his best run of his young career lately. In his last nine starts stretching back to late May he has a 3.30 ERA – by contrast in his first nine games this year he had an ERA of 8.79. Less heralded Troy Watson got pounded for six runs in two innings on June 10. Except that one game from his last 10 outings and his ERA for the other nine is 2.72 but the supporting stats are not as good as Wymer’s. Even Troy Miler, an undrafted free agent, has gotten into the act lately with a 2.21 ERA over his last three starts.

In Vancouver, recently signed 9th round choice Phillip Clarke, fresh off playing in the College World Series, has been a much needed offensive boost. In only seven games he’s already homered twice. On a team with only one other really above average offensive performance so far (fellow catcher Yorman Rodriguez) that’s encouraging. SS Tanner Morris is hitting .308 over his last right games with almost twice as many walks as strikeouts so maybe he’s finding a groove.In a similarly tiny sample, RF Will Robertson (one of the players i expected to be excited about) is hitting .407 in his last seven games.

In Bluefield another catcher, 38th round selection Ryan Sloniger who was pushed out of Vancouver by Clarke’s arrival, is hitting .423 in his first eight games for this team. No less than nine Baby Jays have an OPS of at least .750 including two ranked prospects and four 2019 draftees. One name I didn’t expect to see here is PK Morris. Repeating the level (never a good sign this far down the chain) after having hit a mere .215 here last season, Morris has an .894 OPS early on. On the mound the one starter who’s distinguished himself is 17th round RHP Jared DiCesare who’s struck out 12 without a walk in his first 15 IP. Also note reliever Naswell Paulino whom the organization really likes – in 14 IP so far he has a 1.29 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 13K.

In the GCL 2017 IFA signings Alberto Rodriguez (RF) and Jhon Solarte (CF continue to be the most effective hitters early while top-ranked prospect Orelvis Martinez isn’t far behind. They have 22, 27, and 25 total bases respectively. The one (non-rehab) pitcher worth a notice is 15th rounder Michael Dominguez who’s struck out 11 in his first seven IP.

Now we wait to see what new prospects enter the system via trade over the next two weeks.