How good of odds do the Toronto Blue Jays have at winning a World Series title?

Zach Laing
9 months ago
The champagne has gone sticky, the clothes have been washed, and the Toronto Blue Jays are about to embark on the path to a hopeful World Series title.
Any eccentric fan of the team will tell you the Blue Jays have the indubitable best shot of winning it all this year, but that’s not quite the case. And according to oddsmakers Betano, Toronto enters the post-season tied for the seventh-best odds at winning it all.
Betano plugs the Jays, at the time of writing, with +1700 odds of being the World Series winner — a 5.56 per cent chance shared with the Texas Rangers, and Minnesota Twins — the latter of whom the Jays face in the first round.
Ahead of this trio are the Philadelphia Phillies (+1400, 6.67 per cent), Tampa Bay Rays (+900, 10 per cent), Baltimore Orioles (+650, 13.33 per cent), Houston Astros (+450, 18.8 per cent), LA Dodgers (+425, 19.05 per cent) and the Atlanta Braves (+320, 23.81 per cent). Behind the Jays, meanwhile, are the Milwaukee Brewers (+1900, five per cent), Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins (+2900, 3.33 per cent each).
And here, according to Sports Odds History, is how the Jays’ odds fared when they entered the last number of post-seasons:
  • 2022 – +1500, 6.25 per cent
  • 2020 – +2500,  3.85 per cent
  • 2016 – +1350, 6.90 per cent
  • 2015 – +300, 25 per cent
Betano’s odds are similar to what some statistic sites are projecting, too. FanGraphs, for example, pegs the Jays with a six per cent chance of winning the World Series — which would give them +1566 odds. Baseball-Reference, on the other hand, has the Jays with a 5.4 per cent chance of winning it all — +1752 odds.
The Twins, meanwhile, are a long shot. They have a 2.1 per cent chance at a World Series title, according to FanGraphs, while Baseball-Reference is higher on them at 5.1 per cent.
FanGraphs loves the Jays’ chance of taking out the Twins, giving them a 57 per cent chance of making the LDS. There, the Jays have a 25.3 per cent chance of winning, and a 13.9 per cent chance of winning the LCS.
Back to Betano, however, as they favour the Jays to win the series against the Twins giving them -105 odds to do so. Their implied win per centage based on those odds are 51.22 per cent, so there’s some wiggle room in there.
*Odds at the time of publishing. Odds subject to change.

Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@oilersnation.com.


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