How Josh Donaldson could maximize his value in free agency
By Blue Ox
6 years agoJosh Donaldson plays what position?
Obviously he is a 3B right now, he’s played catcher and he took some reps at SS this past season. With Manny Machado wanting to move to SS could we see something similar with Donaldson?
Just think of Donaldson’s bat at SS. Nobody can touch him; not Carlos Correa, not Corey Seager, not Francisco Lindor. Machado is close, but even his bat doesn’t match that of Donaldson. Looking at the left side of the infield, the closest you can get is Nolan Arenado but he’s not moving to short anytime soon. There is no real comparable for Donaldson at SS, heck it’s tough enough to find a comparable for him at 3B.
I discussed the other day Donaldson’s looming free agency in a strange market and how it could result in him, like many other we saw this winter, getting paid less than expected. Could playing a different position, one that makes him even more of an incredible bat than he already is, help him navigate that market?
A move to SS could increase Donaldson’s versatility and, in doing so, his potential free agent salary. If Donaldson wants to increase his market value, this is the logical next step. Wouldn’t put it past him to request it either considering his move from catcher to 3B was based on his request to management in Oakland. Donaldson speaks his mind; he’s kinda stellar like that.
Over the past three years, Donaldson has averaged better offensive production than even Troy Tulowitzki in 2010 – Tulo’s second best offensive season. Tulo’s best season – 2014 – was more productive than Donaldson’s but his AB total was limited to just over 300. That extra 150 to 200 ABs make a difference.
For me, OPS (on base plus slugging) gives a general idea to the offensive production a player provides. It’s not perfect, but it works in an inexact science kind of way. Think of it as Google Map’s estimated arrival time – close enough for planning but not exact enough to fully base a decision on.
In case you’re wondering, the OPS for Correa, Seager and Lindor over the past three years averages out at 0.866, 0.873, and 0.825, respectively (Machado comes in at 0.840).
So what to make of this?
Donaldson at SS would be unreal and it may be his best avenue to earn over $20 million next season. He’s going to be 33 and there are not many 33-year-olds signing free agent contracts over that mark at this point.
At 36, Victor Martinez ($17 mil over 4) and Adrian Beltre ($18 mil over 2) came close. At 34, Yadier Molina and Edwin Encarnacion averaged out at $20 mil on 3 year deals. Kendrys Morales is the only current contract signed at the age of 33 and he’s making $11 mil – we all know how that has turned out. At 32, Pujols ($24 mil over 10 years – there are still 4 years left on that contract…makes Morales contract easier to stomach) and Miggy ($31 mil over 8 years – 6 years left on that…ouch) are the only ones to earn over the $20 mil mark.
That $20 million mark is going to be tough for Donaldson at 33 years of age especially with the potential for Harper and Machado likely to be ahead of him in line for massive contracts from teams with deep wallets. The money isn’t going to be there unless Donaldson can differentiate himself from the pack – though I’m starting to question if copying Machado is actually a form of differentiation. Let’s just pretend it is.
The rebuttal to the $20 mil mark is that Donaldson is already earning over that with his $23 mil contract. But that contract was through arbitration. Maybe there will be an article later on that goes deeper into this process. In the meantime, FanGraphs has already completed a valuable analysis on how arbitration contracts are typically valued.
If Donaldson can get reps at SS than $20 mil seems reasonable. The question really is if his defense can handle it. If we’re using UZR/150 there aint a chance in hell he can handle it. We’ll get into that another day. For now, it’s pretty damn clear Donaldson is a 3B…maybe a future 1B…and $20 mil could be a tough sell for a 33-year old 3B with declining defense.
This certainly makes sense from the perspective of Donaldson who will be hitting the open market for the first time in his career, but there isn’t really an advantage for the Blue Jays. You tell me, am I off the mark here?
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