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MLB Betting Preview (June 3): Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) slides into second base before Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) can apply a tag on a second inning steal attempt at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Photo credit:Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
15 days ago
The Toronto Blue Jays will continue their surge towards the .500 mark on Monday night when they kick off a four-game series with the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre.
Toronto has won back-to-back series for the first time since mid-April after taking two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend. The Blue Jays swept the Chicago White Sox in the series before that and have won five of their last six games.
 
 
 
The Orioles, who sit three games back of the New York Yankees for the American League East lead but sit comfortably in the first AL wild-card spot, took two of three from the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend to complete their third consecutive series victory. They’ve won eight of their last 10 games.
This will be the second series of the season between these teams. They split two games at Camden Yards in May with identical 3-2 scores. One of the scheduled games in that series was postponed due to rain and will be made up in July.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s clash between the Orioles and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:

Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds

Orioles Moneyline Odds-110
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds-110
Runline OddsOrioles -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)
Over/UnderOver 8 runs (-105), Under 8 runs (-115)
Time/DateJune 3, 7:07 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Baltimore Orioles (37-20 SU, 31-26 ATS, 27-22-8 o/u)

The Orioles are proving last year’s breakout season was no fluke and are once again one of the top teams in the AL heading into the summer months. They’re averaging five runs per game (fourth in MLB) while allowing just 3.7 (tied for fourth), and they’re flexing their muscles with a .439 team slugging percentage (second) while swatting 84 home runs (second).
Gunnar Henderson leads the team in home runs (19), RBIs (42), and on-base percentage (.368). In just his third big-league season, his true potential is becoming realized and he’s even in the AL MVP conversation with the third-shortest odds (+450) behind New York’s Juan Soto (+200) and Aaron Judge (+200).
 
 
On the pitching side of things, the Orioles rank in the top 10 in team ERA (3.33 – fourth), WHIP (1.15 – fifth), K/9 (8.69 – 10th) and opponents’ team batting average (.220 – fourth). Even veteran closer Craig Kimbrel is turning things around after a slow start to the season. He’s converted all six of his save opportunities in May while holding the opposition to a .097 batting average.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (28-30 SU, 29-29 ATS, 25-32-1 o/u)

The Blue Jays responded well during an easy portion of their schedule, but things will get considerably more difficult in June against more top tier opponents. After this series with Baltimore, the Blue Jays will play several opponents later this month with records at or currently above .500, including the Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians (two series), Boston Red Sox (two series), and New York Yankees.
Blue Jays manager John Schneider raised some eyebrows Sunday when Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who usually plays first base, took up position at the hot corner for the first time since 2019. The move allowed Schneider more flexibility to include some hot bats in his lineup, and it worked with Toronto putting five runs on the board, including two off the bat of Daniel Vogelbach who was able to slide into the designated hitter spot.
Five runs appear to be the magic number for the Blue Jays this season as they’re 22-3 when scoring five or more runs.
Bettors should note that Toronto will be without its regular closer for the duration of this series, as Jordan Romano is on the injured list with elbow inflammation.

Probable starting pitchers

Baltimore: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (5-2, 3.53 ERA, 10.76 K/9, 1.33 WHIP)
Rodriguez is coming off a mediocre outing against the Red Sox in which he allowed four earned runs on seven hits over six innings of work while striking out 10 batters. He boasts incredible swing-and-miss stuff, ranking in the 86th percentile in whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. The righty averages 96 mph on his fastball and he uses a devastating changeup against left-handed hitters to rack up strikeouts. Rodriguez has been particularly good on the road this year, holding the opposition to a .132 batting average while recording a 2.31 ERA.
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (4-3, 4.14 ERA, 9.28 K/9, 1.36 WHIP)
Gausman has strung together two strong starts in a row against the White Sox and Detroit Tigers, holding them to two earned runs over 12 innings while striking out 13. There’s been a noticeable uptick in his strikeouts recently, with him fanning 33 batters across 26 1/3 innings in May compared to 17 strikeouts across 23 2/3 innings in April. He was slowed by injury during spring training, so that may have resulted in a slow start to the season by his standards. Gausman needs the opposition to chase his best pitch, the splitter, in order to have success on the mound. Historically, the Orioles haven’t been fooled by Gausman who has a 1-3 record with a 4.61 ERA in five career starts the O’s. Baltimore hit a blistering .341 off him in those matchups.

Weather

It should be a pleasant evening for baseball in Toronto, with temperatures expected to sit around 20 C under clear skies. Winds will blow from left field to right field at 8 mph.

MLB betting trends

  • The Orioles are an impressive 16-8 SU and 13-11-2 ATS on the road this season.
  • The two teams played under the total with the Blue Jays covering the runline in both of their previous meetings this season.

MLB player prop trends

  • Rodriguez has struck out seven or more batters in each of his last three starts and he’s notched six or more strikeouts in seven of his nine starts this season. He’s -110 to record over 5.5 strikeouts.
  • Orioles infielder Jordan Westburg is taking a seven-game hitting streak into action Monday. He’s -270 to get a hit but is 0-for-3 in his career against Gausman.
  • Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman has at least one hit in six straight contests. He’s -245 to get a hit and is 4-for-15 with three RBIs in his career against Gausman.
  • Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has struck out at least once in each of his last six games. He’s -145 to strike out at least once and is 2-for-6 with a strikeout in his career against Rodriguez.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions

  • Rodriguez over 5.5 strikeouts: -110. In three starts against the Blue Jays last season, Rodriguez averaged almost exactly one strikeout per inning and his 10.75 K/9 rate is among the league leaders this year. His track record this season also suggests he’s a good bet to notch at least six strikeouts in this spot.
  • Orioles moneyline: -110. This game will feature a great starting pitching matchup and it should be close through six or seven innings, but Baltimore does have an advantage when it comes to the bullpen. With Romano on the injured list, Yimi Garcia and Chad Green will be counted on for high-leverage situations, but both of those hurlers threw nearly 30 pitches in Sunday’s win, putting their availability in question Monday. Baltimore used just two relievers on Sunday (and none of their high-leverage arms) compared to Toronto’s four, giving the Orioles the rest advantage here. Statistically, the Orioles are the better team in nearly every category this season and getting them at a pick’em price in this spot is too good to pass up.

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