Taking a look at some interesting position players in the Rule 5 draft
3 years ago
With teams finalizing their 40-man rosters last week, it’s time to look ahead to some players who were not protected by their teams and eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.
The Blue Jays protected five players (Riley Adams, Otto Lopez, Gabriel Moreno, Josh Palacios and Ty Tice) and their 40-man roster is now full. However lots can change between now and the draft on December 10th, the non-tender deadline is tomorrow, December 2nd, so the Blue Jays could free up a roster spot that way.
With no minor league season this year it makes it difficult to evaluate players. To get an idea of the more talented players eligible this season, I went through Roster Resource on Fangraphs and found every player eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. From there I sorted them by their prospect ranking. This will give us a pretty good indicator of who the more talented players are that are available.
I spilt the players into two groups, the first being those who are currently ranked in their teams top 10 and the second being a few notable players who were ranked in the top 10 but fell down on the lists for various reasons.
We will focus on hitters in this post and pitching in part two.
Current Top 10 Prospects
Wenceel Perez – SS Tigers (Age 21)
Ranked eighth in both 2019 and 2020, the Tigers didn’t protect Perez because in spite of his talent he is still very raw. He’s a good defender so a team may take a chance on him as a utility infielder. His bat though, still has a ways to go. In 2019 in A ball Perez hit just .233/.299/.314, an 81 wRC+. This would have to be Elvis Luciano type selection; you pick him and use him in only blowout games.
Jhon Torres – RF Cardinals (20)
Torres ranked ninth coming into the 2020 season. He was acquired by the Cardinals in the Oscar Mercado trade. Much like Perez, Torres is young and raw. At 20 years old he is one of the youngest players eligible. Torres is big, in the Cardinals prospect list on Fangraphs, Eric Longenhagen compares Torres’ build to that of Franmil Reyes at the same age. Torres has power, but struggled to show it in Lo-A in 2019. In 21 games there Torres didn’t hit a homer and slugged just .212. It would be nearly impossible for Torres to make the jump to the big leagues and very difficult for a team to stash him.
Shervyen Newton – SS Mets (21)
Newton like Torres is young and raw. Newton stands 6’4 and uses that large frame to generate good power. The problem is the hit tool. Longenhagen expects Newton to play a premium defensive position, either short or third, with “impact power.” However when you strikeout over 30% of the time in rookie ball and Lo-A it raises some big red flags. Even if he does figure it out in the minors as he progresses it could still be an issue in the big leagues, like Lewis Brinson as Longenhagen points out. If Newton could cut the strikeouts down he could be a really good prospect, but not one you can realistically take in the Rule 5 Draft.
Notable Former Top Prospects
Seuly Matias – OF Royals (22)
Matias has some of the best raw power in the minor leagues. He is one of just six players on The BOARD to be given a future value of 80 on raw power. He hit 31 homers and slugged .550 in Lo-A in 2018, in just 94 games. In 2019 he was promoted to Hi-A and struggled. He dealt with a hand injury limiting him to just 57 games, but even in those 57 games he was exposed. He struck out an absurd 44.3% of the time as his swing decisions are poor. He is another talented player with a major that a team would have to think they can fix to take a chance on Matias in the draft.
Omar Estévez – 2B Dodgers (22)
Prior to the 2019 season Estévez rated as the Dodgers 8th overall prospect. He spent the 2019 season in AA and hit 291/.352/.431. His 119 wRC+ put him alongside other top prospects at AA including Nico Hoerner, Oniel Cruz, Alex Kirilloff and Jazz Chisholm. While those players climbed up prospect boards Estévez slipped, falling to 23 on the Dodgers list. He battled a shoulder injury this past year, and is not a very good runner. He has some pop, ZIPS projects him in just over 400 plate appearances to hit 11 homers in 2021. He is advanced enough that he might be able to fake it in the big leagues for a season, so a team may take a chance on him, if they believe in his bat.
Aramis Ademan – SS Cubs (22)
Ademan reached the highest prospect status of anyone on this list. In 2019 he rated as the Cubs third best prospect and was just outside of Fangraphs top 100, coming in at 119. The Cubs were aggressive with him, having him play at Hi-A at just 19 years old. He expectedly struggled with just a 64 wRC+. He repeated the level in 2019 and fared better with a 92 wRC+. What caused to fall out of favour with scouts is he’s “gotten heavier and slower without adding any power.” He only hit five homers in 2019. He’s fallen down to 25th on the Cubs list and may fall off the list entirely if he doesn’t start improving. He’s a tough sell as a Rule 5 pick you would basically have to stash him for a year and hope that you can get him into shape and hope he can get back some of what made him a good prospect.
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