The Blue Jays can capitalize by trading their veteran pitchers

There’s something to be said about recognizing a window and making the most of that opportunity. The 2015 Toronto Blue Jays saw a window at the mid-season point and they went for the damn thing. Nine years later, with a sub-.500 record and sitting in last place, the Blue Jays should do the opposite.

For the first time since the 2019 trade deadline, it feels like the Blue Jays front office will subtract big league pieces from this roster rather than add. It’s an unfortunate admission to make, and it feels like waving a white flag on 2024, but this isn’t working for the Blue Jays.

Veronica Chung broke down the five most likely Blue Jays to walk out the door who are pending free agents, but if the Blue Jays really want to get some value, they’d be best served to start shopping their controllable pitchers. Namely Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, Chad Green and Jose Berrios.

There’s been so much conjecture over the last month about whether the Blue Jays will trade Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and while dealing away two franchise figureheads would be a huge blow to the roster, the value just isn’t there for the Blue Jays on Bichette or Guerrero.

Toronto is likely shopping those two at their 2022 or 2023 valuations, but they’re both having bad-to-mediocre seasons compared to their career norms. The Blue Jays will never get the value they think they deserve on the open market unless another team out there is highly motivated to get Bo or Vlad.

Which is why it makes more sense to pivot and start peeling away pitchers from the starting rotation and the bullpen. To me, that’s where the true value lies for the Blue Jays on the trade market. Contenders always need starting pitchers and late relief options to bolster their roster for the second half, and the Blue Jays have a bevvy of them.

If there’s a contending team out there looking to acquire Bichette or Guerrero, they have to overlook a lot of warts in their profile to justify that trade. There are front offices out there that feel like they can “fix” these guys, and with Bichette at 26-years-old and Guerrero at 25-years-old, there’s still plenty of runway for them to figure it out. But with only one-plus years of control, that’s a gamble for any prospective contender.

But on the starting pitching side, you know what you’re going to get from a Bassitt, Berrios, Green, and to a lesser extend this season, a pitcher of Gausman’s ilk.

After a rough start to the season, Bassitt whittled down his 5.64 ERA at the end of April to a 3.45 ERA at the end of June. With six quality starts in his last 10 games, Bassitt has been one of the most reliable arms in Toronto’s rotation.

That he’s under contract for only $22 million next season as well may be attractive to a playoff-bound team who expects their competitive window to span at least the next few years.

The sell on Gausman is a little trickier. He has two-plus years left on his contract, but under the hood, his strikeout numbers have dipped, the run value on his splitter and four-seamer have tumbled, and he’s getting knocked around quite a bit by the opposition.

But if there’s another team that feels like a few tweaks could be key to getting Gausman back to normal, there’s a potential he returns to that ace-level pitcher he’s been for the Blue Jays the last two seasons. And at $23 million per season, that’s a pretty reasonable AAV, so long as he’s still a serviceable starter.

The Berrios question is the biggest one looming over the Blue Jays when it comes to whether they should keep or trade one of their veteran starting pitchers. He got out to one of the most tumultuous starts after signing his 7-year/$131 million extension with the Blue Jays, but has turned things around dating back to last season.

With his player opt-out after the 2026 season, prospective trade partners might only have him for two plus seasons, but for a team like the Dodgers, Braves or Guardians who are built to win now, adding a piece like Berrios for three potential playoff runs might be all that they need to push them over the top.

Who doesn’t love a controllable reliever? In hindsight, the Blue Jays completed a tidy piece of business by agreeing to that contract with Green, who is under team control for next year as well. He won’t fetch nearly as much as Bassitt, Gausman or Berrios would, but some nice prospects in exchange for Green may help kick-start the impending rebuild for the Blue Jays.

Especially for the starting pitchers, in a very thin market where the best options out there are Jack Flaherty, Garrett Crochet and Jon Gray, the Blue Jays could make a killing this trade deadline if they decide to open up their starting rotation to the buyers right now.

Sure, it’s going to be a huge blow to Toronto’s rotation to lose Bassitt, Gausman or Berrios, but it’s going to be painful no matter what when there’s a huge turnover on the roster on the horizon heading into this and next offseason.

More than anything, the Blue Jays need to read the room and be honest with themselves heading into this trade deadline. If they truly feel like they can contend in 2025, then it isn’t prudent to disassemble the starting rotation. But if they’re just going to make another haphazard attempt at running it back again, maybe it makes sense to blow this thing up now and capitalize before it blows up in their face.