In the first edition of The Rotation Review, I wrote about how the Jays would need good starting pitching if they wanted to contend because the offense isn’t going to carry this team. And here we are, through 21 games, sitting at 13-8. Except the rotation has been, as a whole, rather mediocre, and the offense has been carrying this team, sitting fourth in the AL in runs scored. Still, in order for this success to continue, they’re going to need better pitching. Diving a bit deeper into the offensive numbers, they sit smack dab in the middle of the AL with a 102 wRC+, with lots of clutch, late-inning magic contributing to W’s.

That brings us back to the rotation. They are currently 13th in the AL with a 5.23 ERA, surrounded by teams such as the Orioles, Rangers and White Sox, who are all quite shitty. Their FIP isn’t much better, at 5.08. Their SIERA, a more sophisticated version of FIP, has them at 4.25, which is better, but still bottom-third. While they’ve been near the top of the league in strikeouts, walks and especially the longball have really hurt them. They have, however, been the best staff at inducing groundballs, so their ridiculous 17.4% HR/FB rate will regress eventually.

With all that preamble out of the way, let’s dive into the last five starts!

Side note: I’m going to begin adding Game Score (GS) to each pitcher’s line. It ranges from 0 (bad) to 100 (good), with 50 being average. I’m going to use FanGraphs version (GSv2), since most stats I pull are from their website anyways.

6.0IP, 5H, 4ER, 2BB, 8K, 1HR, 51 GS

Season: 4GS, 22.0IP, 12.68 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 2.05 HR/9, 106 ERA-

It was pretty much a standard outing for Happ, heavily favouring his fastball, even with two strikes. All eight of his strikeouts came on fastballs, seven of which were four-seamers. Happ began the season continuing to mix in his sinker more often over his four-seamer, however in each start he’s reversed that trend, with Wednesday being his most four-seamer heavy start of the season. The sole home run he gave up came on a slider, a pitch RHH have done well against this season, putting up a 1.300 OPS including two of his five home runs allowed. His next start is against the Red Sox, so if he can keep the ball inside the park, the Jays will have a good chance of winning.

6.0IP, 7H, 3ER, 2BB, 2K, 0HR, 50 GS

Season: 4GS, 25.2IP, 5.26 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 0.35 HR/9, 91 ERA-

The most intriguing thing about Aaron Sanchez’ young season are his strikeout numbers. He’s never been an extremely high strikeout guy, even when in the bullpen. His only full season of starting was in 2016, and his K/9 rate of 7.55 wasn’t too eye-popping.

Once you dive into the numbers, the fact that his strikeouts have taken a dive is rather peculiar. It’s been well documented that Aaron’s changeup has become an effective weapon this year. His usage of the pitch has skyrocketed, and it’s become his primary out-pitch. He’s been generating a ton of whiffs on it. A quick check of the plate discipline section of FanGraphs page reveals that hitters have, in general, been making less contact on his pitches than before. Surely, this is a perfect storm for elevated strikeout rates. But that hasn’t been the case.

Looking a bit deeper, some factors reveal themselves. With two strikes, batters haven’t been able to touch his changeup, batting .000 off it in 15 ABs, including 10 Ks. His fastball, however, has been a different story. Hitters have put up a .935 OPS against it, and he’s only generated two strikeouts with it. This may be due, in part, to a slight drop in velocity (down to 93.8 after sitting around 95.5 previously). He also has had issues commanding the pitch, accounting for eight of his nine walks. Through four starts after missing a large chunk of 2017, I’m not overly concerned about it. Even if his velocity has dropped a bit, if his command improves, his strikeout numbers will, too.

5.0IP, 7H, 5ER, 1BB, 4K, 3HR, 24 GS

Season: 4GS, 22.0IP, 7.36 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 2.45 HR/9, 125 ERA-

I think Marco pitched a little bit better than his line indicated. He’s given up six homers on the season, and five of them have come against the Bronx Bombers. I’m still not overly concerned about Estrada. His first two starts were quite good, and a quick glance at his peripherals doesn’t show anything too concerning. Sure, his strikeouts are down slightly, but his velocity and vertical movement on his changeup have remained pretty consistent to his previous three seasons, so you’d think eventually that will tick back up. Like Happ, he’ll be in for a tough test against the powerful Red Sox, so keeping the ball in the yard should be main priority.

5.1IP, 7H, 6ER, 4BB, 5K, 1HR, 50 GS

Season: 4GS, 20.0IP, 9.45 K/9, 6.30 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 202 ERA-

After a rough couple innings in Cleveland, Stroman finished strong. We were hoping he could carry that momentum into this start, and through five innings, he had done just that, allowing four baserunners. Unfortunately, two runs were scored on an Aaron Judge bomb, but such is life against the New York Yankees. Then the wheels fell of in the sixth. You could argue Gibby should have given Stroman the hook instead of letting him try and get out of it himself, but this bullpen lacks a long man and they need starters to work deeper into games. Stroman will continue to have starts like this until he can get his command under control. It was another walk-heavy outing for him.

5.1IP, 6H, 4ER, 3BB, 6K, 1HR, 41 GS

Season: 4GS, 21.2IP, 9.55 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 2.08 HR/9, 159 ERA-

This would likely constitute Garcia’s worst start as a Blue Jay. Up until this start, he’s had pretty weak opponents (he avoided the Yankees the first time around). While his ERA hasn’t been great, his SIERA projects him to a 3.76. If you get anywhere close to this, that’s fantastic for a fifth starter. He’s going to have some good starts, and he will definitely have some bad starts. When you look at the issues rotation has had, Garcia’s aren’t as important as the four guys in front of him.

A look back at the lines for this turn reveals that nobody was able to make it past the sixth inning. The bullpen has been stellar so far, but without a long man, they need the starters to go deeper into games to give them adequate rest so the wheels don’t fall of later in the year. The Jays offense has been able to win a few games in the late innings, and the pen has been there to hold the fort. If the offense starts to falter, they’ll need a rested pen to give them a chance to win games.