Up Next: Blue Jays face young Kansas City Royals team off to a hot start

After taking two of three from the Padres in San Diego, the Blue Jays’ road trip continues to the City of Fountains tonight, where they’re set to start a four-game series with the Kansas City Royals.

The Royals have got off to a 13-9 start, which is even more impressive considering they have the second-best run differential in the Majors (+38). Second-year manager Matt Quatraro has his squad in second place in the AL Central, three games behind the red-hot Cleveland Guardians. The upstart Royals have been particularly tough at Kauffman Stadium this year, where they own the best home winning percentage in the Major Leagues (9-4, .692%). Let’s take a look at what’s worked for them this season, and what chance the Jays may have of winning the series.

Monday, April 22: 7:40 EST: Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 2.08 ERA) vs Brady Singer (2-0, 1.54 ERA)

Tuesday, April 23: 7:40 EST: Kevin Gausman (0-2, 8.16 ERA) vs Michael Wacha (1-2, 3.75 ERA)

Wednesday, April 24: 7:40 EST: Yariel Rodriguez (0-0, 2.35 ERA) vs Alec Marsh (3-0, 3.22 ERA)

Thursday, April 25: 2:10 EST: Jose Berrios (4-0, 0.85 ERA) vs Cole Ragans (0-2, 4.32 ERA)

The Royals currently sport the third-best starting pitching ERA in the Major Leagues (2.94), a night and day difference from their 27th-ranked unit from 2023 (5.12). The most important development for this team has been the emergence of Brady Singer. Once a highly touted prospect, Singer has battled inconsistency in his first four Major League seasons. His 1.54 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through four starts have him leading this pitching staff and he could be emerging as an ace for this team. Alec Marsh has been a mostly unheralded prospect but has provided another homegrown arm for the Royals to lean on in the back end.

Adding some veteran presence to the rotation has been the free agent acquisitions of Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, the latter of which is second on the squad with a 2.03 ERA. However, he may have run into some good luck, as he’s only punched only 14 batters in 31.0 innings. Shockingly, the pitcher that some were mentioning before the season as a possible Cy Young dark horse has been he team’s worst starter so far. Cole Ragans’ nasty stuff has been on display at times this season (33 strikeouts in 25.0 innings) but he’s been hit harder than the other starters donning blue and white, sporting a 4.32 ERA and 1.48 WHIP so far this season. Look for Ragans’ numbers to improve as the season goes along, while guys like Lugo and Marsh regress from their spectacular early season statistics.

The Royals fall near the middle of the pack in bullpen ERA, with their 3.63 mark ranking 12th in the Majors. Righthander John Schreiber has been a key piece, donning a sparkling 0.90 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. He has been the most relied-upon reliever for the team, leading the team with 11 appearances and 10.0 innings. Angel Zerpa has been the most successful lefty arm, sporting a 1.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 10 appearances. One disappointing arm for this bullpen has been free agent acquisition and back to back to back World Series winner Will Smith, who has struggled to the tune of a 12.38 ERA in 9 appearances. It’s been James McArthur who has been trusted to lock down the end of games for the team, converting 4 out of 5 save chances so far.

The offence for the Royals has been solid if not unspectacular, ranking 12th in team OPS in all of baseball. It is worth noting that they have been one of the best baserunning teams so far this season, ranking 5th in SB% (85%, 22 for 26). KC has been led by veteran catcher Salvador Perez, who has gone through a bit of a renaissance season en route to a .985 OPS through 21 games. He’ll try to recreate his absurd 2021 season, where he smashed 48 homers, a far cry from his next-best power season of 27.

Bobby Witt has also continued to blossom into one of the game’s brightest stars, repping a .929 OPS with 4 homers and 4 steals. The third and final Royals hitter who has put up impressive numbers has been first basemen Vinnie Pasquantino, who sports a .883 OPS with almost twice as many walks as strikeouts (13 to 7). After Perez, Witt, and Pasquantino, the Royals have received mostly average and below-average production from the rest of their offensive players.

Despite seven straight losing seasons (three of which where they lost 100+ games) the Royals definitely seem to have staying power this year. It seems highly unlikely that they will maintain the second-best run differential in the league, but they have a good chance to continue to battle for the AL Central crown this year. This is especially true if they can get a few more contributions from some of their offensive players, as well as some more consistent pitching from lefty Cole Ragans. This looks like it may be a tough series for the Blue Jays, with a possible 2-2 series split as the most likely outcome.