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Assessing where things fell apart for the 2026 Blue Jays
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Photo credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Nick Prasad
Oct 14, 2026, 06:00 EDTUpdated: Oct 13, 2026, 16:30 EDT
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As we proceed through the Major League Baseball postseason, the humming about the future of the Toronto Blue Jays is getting louder. Before anything can be fixed, it’s important to understand how this season fell apart.
A year ago, the Blue Jays were American League East champions and in the middle of eliminating the New York Yankees. This year, they’ve cleaned out their lockers and are probably on a beach or an 18-hole course somewhere.
It’s wild to think that they went from being inches away from winning a World Series in 2025 to being dead last in the division. There were a lot of things that added to the recipe for disaster for Toronto’s season.
Injuries started the decline of the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays
The team had entered the season with what was supposed to be one of the strongest pitching staffs in the league. The Blue Jays lost and delayed a few arms upfront, delaying their plan to get by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2026.
Cody Ponce was signed as a part of that plan, and he was one of the first victims of injury. The right-hander went down in early April, tearing his ACL while attempting to field a ball. The corrective surgery ended his season.
José Berríos was a contributing piece to the staff, and would’ve played an important role. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May, ending his season. Shane Bieber was another strong piece of the pie, and he was already on the injured list to start the season. After returning, Bieber went back onto the injured list in August with a back issue.
His health was inconsistent, and so was the overall health and availability of the original projected rotation. From a depth standpoint, Bowden Francis underwent UCL reconstruction surgery that ended his season, while Yimi García and Jake Bloss were in a similar boat.
On the offensive end, Anthony Santander was once again injured and missed the entire season after left-shoulder surgery. This was a bat the Blue Jays wanted in this lineup for some time; this also may be a contract that holds some regrets.
The one bat that really hurt with absence was Addison Barger. This young power-stick was a huge name in the Blue Jays 2025 World Series run, and a part of a young enthusiastic core. He suffered injury on three different occasions during the season, and finally in July, it was confirmed that he needed season-ending surgery on his right elbow. This ended his season, and possibly will delay the 2027 start-up.
The Blue Jays had over 30 injured list stints in 2026 and over 2000 days missed by players. Unfortunately injuries are not controllable, but it makes huge impacts on the team’s consistency. It forced management to fill holes with who they had available, trusting those fillers to produce. Injury explains a huge part of 2026’s decline, but this wasn’t the only diagnosis. There’s more to this picture.
Offensive production in 2026 was not booming like 2025
The Blue Jays offense in 2026 was without sharp teeth. They had all the pieces to do what they needed to do; however, they lacked bite. Numbers were down, hitters were slumping, and intermittent injuries all played a role.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. unfortunately, is the one to start this topic off with. In the postseason, Guerrero was a breakout player after a mediocre 2025 regular season. The first baseman was Mr. October in Toronto for that time being.
Toronto expected a lot from him in 2026, and his offensive output was very disappointing. The slugger finished with 141 hits, 57 RBIs, nine home runs, and a .260 average. Last season, he recorded 172 hits, 84 RBIs, and 23 home runs in the regular season.
The main focus for Toronto fans is the lack of production versus the money he signed for. What the real focus should be is the contagiousness of the slump. If your top guy is going through it, it always seems to rub off elsewhere.
What the decline looked like
Who else was affected? George Springer was one of the biggest ones. He declined from 2025, posting just more than half of the home runs he hit in 2025, at 15 versus the 32 last season. Springer’s OPS dropped 233 points, so did his RBIs, from 84 to 54.
It wasn’t just Springer; Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, and others were in the same boat. The Blue Jays scored 150 fewer runs; they hit 39 fewer home runs. Their slugging percentage fell from .427 to .381; the team also generated fewer total bases per at-bat.
Their walks fell by 61, while on-base percentage dropped 23 points; the team also struck out more while recording fewer hits. The bottom line is, if you can’t score runs, you can’t win ball games.
Between injury and a speed bump in roster structure, performance took a toll, and consistency became scarce within the clubhouse. The team battled but couldn’t pull off an entry into fall baseball. The front office has their work cut out for them, as they attempt to review and make corrections to this issue.
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