The Toronto Blue Jays have started introducing some of their newest prospects from the 2024 MLB Draft into the farm system, with orientations and training camps beginning just over two weeks ago. Since then, a handful of new Blue Jays have started to get their feet wet in the minors – with seven players assigned to single-A Dunedin.

Shane Farrell, the Blue Jays team director of amateur scouting, discussed the recent draft class with reporters back on August 3rd and confirmed what many were thinking in regards to the usage this season for some of their top picks in RHP Trey Yesavage and RHP Khal Stephen, “Given the amount they threw, I wouldn’t expect them to rush to an affiliate and pitch much this season, if at all.”

It’s a tactic the Jays have used over the past few seasons, saving the arms of recently drafted starting pitchers for the following campaign. Nate Pearson (2017) and Alek Manoah (2019) did not follow this trajectory, both of whom were drafted before Farrell’s arrival, but recent draftees Ricky Tiedemann (2021), Chad Dallas (2021), Irv Carter (2021), Brandon Barriera (2022), Juaron Watts-Brown (2023), and Landon Maroudis (2023) all debuted the following season.

The most commonly cited reason is workload, as most of the drafted arms in the higher rounds were starters at their respective prep or college programs and had logged significant innings for their previous squads.

For example, before the draft, Watts-Brown pitched 82 1/3 innings with Oklahoma State University while Dallas logged 103 innings with Tennessee, a career-high for the right-hander. What normally occurs for players who follow the ‘rest and debut next season’ ideology is that these pitchers finish out the year in Dunedin (not playing) under the guise of the Jays staff at the Player Development Complex, following dedicated workout plans and partaking in intrasquad games or live sessions to stay sharp but outside of the game atmosphere.

This follows along with the mentality of not overworking your pitcher, as the fear is that a pitcher going too hard and too fast could lead to elbow/arm injuries that impact their development through the farm system.

Manoah, who logged 108 innings at West Virginia before rounding out the year in Vancouver (17 innings) during his draft year, dealt with arm issues last season and is currently on the IL after undergoing Tommy John surgery a few months back. He also had to deal with the COVID-19 minor league shutdown and ramped up rather quickly in 2021 when he was dominating in triple-A but one could argue there is some correlation between that quick ramp-up to how his arm faded towards the end of the 2023 season.

Pearson was the same way (81 innings in JUCO with an additional 20 in the Jays system in his draft year) but he seems more of an outlier considering his injuries were less arm-related although he did have some dead arm problems during his debut season.

This is also a trend geared toward starting pitchers, as the Jays have assigned relievers to affiliate clubs to round out the season on multiple occasions. Colby Holcome (9th round, 2024) has been assigned to single-A and has one inning under his belt already while Colby Martin (16th round, 2024) has two appearances to his credit with the Blue Jays as well.

Contrary to the previous examples of Manoah and Pearson, there is also tangible evidence to support that the rest following the draft year doesn’t lead to preventing injuries.

All three of Tiedemann, Barriera, and Maroudis underwent respective Tommy John procedures this season and are on the shelf until next year – a group that was part of the ‘rest and come back next year’ draft class of pitchers. Could there be an increased arm risk associated with the rest following the draft or is it just a potential fluke that the injury bug has dealt a harsh blow to some of the top arms in the farm system?

This is a question that won’t have an immediate answer (at least by me, who has zero health science knowledge nor was a professional athlete) but the comparison is interesting to note. It’s also an idea that has been embraced by some but not all across the Major Leagues when it comes to their top-drafted arms.

In 2023, nine pitchers (four high school and five college) were drafted in the first round (plus the first competitive bonus round) and only four of them made appearances last season in the minors – Paul Skenes (Pirates), Noble Meyer (Marlins), Thomas White (Marlins), and Hurston Waldrep (Braves). The Marlins drafted two prep pitchers in Meyer and White and both pitched sparingly to round out their draft seasons – 11 and 4 1/3 innings respectively – while Waldrep led the group with 29 1/3 innings through four different levels and eight starts and Skenes appeared in 6 2/3 innings before shutting it down.

The remaining five pitchers didn’t start their professional careers until this year and only one player has yet to debut in Ty Floyd (Reds), who injured his elbow in Spring Training and then underwent shoulder surgery sometime later and is now out for the season.

The likelihood of whether a pitcher gets shut down or throws some innings following the draft is geared toward the individual, as there are also some cases of starting pitchers drafted by the Jays within the past three seasons who found themselves pitching following the draft (Connor O’Halloran pitched a few innings out of the bullpen in single-A).

The trend is interesting to note with the Jays since Farrell took over his director role in early 2020 and seems to have been an idea brought in by himself and the staff in the Jays front office. Ultimately, it’s a decision the organization makes with the player and is hopefully in the best interest of both sides because baseball is a business at the end of the day.