It’s a good thing there are nearly four months until the 2025 season begins because the Toronto Blue Jays would be in serious trouble if the regular season started right now.

Thus far, the only meaningful moves the franchise has made this off-season have been the Andrés Giménez trade and bringing back Yimi García. Those are important additions to next season’s roster — that’s without question. However, it’s only a start, albeit a decent one at that. There needs to be more that follows before Opening Day arrives.

As currently constructed, Toronto’s roster is only marginally better than it was at the end of last season. And there’s plenty of work still to complete. The front office has yet to raise the ceiling of next season’s squad, only slightly improving its floor with the Giménez and García acquisitions.

Those deals checked off a few boxes, further enhancing the club’s team defence and filling one of the many vacancies in the bullpen, which remains a work in progress. One area they haven’t addressed, though, is the offence. On top of that, the starting rotation could also use a significant upgrade or two, given it’s projected to be a bottom-five staff in 2025, per FanGraphs’ Steamer model.

Meanwhile, the rest of the American League has continued to improve around the Blue Jays, especially within the division.

Inside the AL East, the New York Yankees — who’ve recovered nicely since losing Juan Soto to the crosstown Mets — and Boston Red Sox have each raised the ceiling of their respective rosters this winter. While the Baltimore Orioles, despite being under new ownership, continue to shy away from making big splashes in free agency, they’ve increased the floor of their 2025 roster with multiple complementary additions. Everyone expects the Tampa Bay Rays to be competitive next season, too, with many key players returning to full health and their elite player development system likely to churn out a fresh wave of talent.

That leaves the Blue Jays in, well, a rather tricky position. At this point of the off-season, with several marquee free agents off the board, there aren’t a ton of ceiling-raising moves still available. Without making one, this team’s best hope of returning to the playoffs in ’25 will be via the wild card again, and the fan base knows all too well about the unpredictability of a best-of-three series.

Not only is the wild-card route unappealing, but increased competition also exists for the three AL seeds next season between the East, Central and West divisions — adding to the importance of constructing a division-winning roster to secure a first-round bye.

Part of that increased competition starts with the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, who clinched the final two wild-card spots last season and are trending upwards within their competitive windows. There’s also the Seattle Mariners, who’ve narrowly missed the playoffs over the past two seasons and will be a legitimate threat if they acquire a few impact bats. The Texas Rangers are another team to watch, as well, now that they’re healthy and have improved an already dangerous lineup.

It’s also safe to assume the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros probably aren’t going anywhere and could repeat as division champions in 2025. Then there’s the Minnesota Twins, who’ve barely made any meaningful additions since Sonny Gray departed via free agency last off-season but will likely remain competitive if they can stay healthy, particularly on the position-player front.

With the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland-less Athletics being surprisingly active this winter, the chances of those rebuilding clubs being the same pushovers they once were have decreased considerably — although neither will likely be any threat in the wild-card race.

Still, that could mean fewer wins for a team like the Blue Jays, who are in danger of falling behind the rest of the competition without raising the ceiling of their roster for ’25 and beyond.

Since the Blue Jays feature a bottom-third farm system, they don’t possess the type of prospect capital it’d require to execute a ceiling-raising trade, and there likely aren’t many players available who fit that description anyway. So, free agency it is.

Of every free agent still unsigned, third baseman Alex Bregman leads the remaining crop in projected fWAR for 2025 at 4.1, per Steamer, matching his ’24 rating. Landing the Scott Boras client will likely require a $200 million investment, though — a price no team is currently willing to meet. As talented as the two-time All-Star is, he doesn’t offer the middle-of-the-order thump Toronto’s lineup desperately seeks to justify such a lucrative cost.

Next up is infielder Ha-Seong Kim, with a 2.8 projected rating. But another glove-first player isn’t what this team needs, either. They need power, and that’s precisely what they’d receive from the two hitters below Bregman and Kim in projected fWAR, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, both of whom feature a projected 2.5 rating.

Jurickson Profar is another potential high-ceiling target who could improve the Blue Jays’ offence, especially considering the switch-hitting outfielder was 39 per-cent above a league-average hitter (100 average) and worth a career-high 4.3 fWAR in 2024. However, it’s worth noting Steamer doesn’t expect him to sustain those results in ’25, projecting as a two-win player.

Removing the likes of Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes has left little upside among free-agent pitchers, and rightly so. However, the starting pitching market isn’t completely bare, with Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta (qualified) still up for grabs, and several high-end relievers remain available as teams wait for prices to cool.

While Toronto doesn’t have the resources to be a major player via trade, the organization could acquire someone like Jordan Montgomery without sacrificing a meaningful return. Despite his immense struggles last season, he was a four-win pitcher during his World Series run in ’23 and could be an intriguing reclamation project if Arizona is willing to retain part of his $22.5 million salary.

Given how much is riding on next season, much of the fan base is understandably skeptical of the Blue Jays putting together a competitive roster that can contend for a division title and embark on a deep post-season run in 2025. It’s a tall order. Nobody’s denying that. But all hope shouldn’t be lost — not yet, at least.

Toronto will likely begin Opening Day without a complete roster, as most teams do unless you’re the Los Angeles Dodgers. To avoid last season’s first-half failures, the front office must add at least one impact hitter, round out the starting rotation (ideally with a mid-rotation arm), fortify the bullpen and acquire a backup catcher.

Easier said than done, of course, but those are the boxes that general manager Ross Atkins must check between now and the end of spring training. It’s a difficult agenda. But the good news is the number of teams shopping in the same aisle as the Blue Jays has shrunk considerably.

Those still in the running for Bregman might be down to the Detroit Tigers, Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets and possibly Red Sox. As for Alonso and Santander, every club listed above is also likely in play for those two, except for the Yankees and Red Sox. But you can probably swap them out for the San Francisco Giants and Angels.

The Giants will also likely remain aggressive in the starting pitching market after missing out on Burnes, as will the Orioles, who now have to fill his spot in the rotation. Beyond them, though, there may not be another team more motivated to improve its starting staff than the Blue Jays.

With a small group of teams looking to make a splash, the remaining free-agent market sets up perfectly for teams who still have money to spend, like Toronto. All they have to do now is strike.

The Blue Jays already lived this story once, and it didn’t end favourably after they bet on internal improvements and veteran, complementary additions after whiffing on Shohei Ohtani last winter. If history repeats in 2025, it could seriously jeopardize the franchise’s future — not just during the following season but five or 10 years down the road.

Raising the floor of next season’s roster instead of its ceiling raises the risk of missing the playoffs for a second straight campaign, likely signalling the end of the current competitive window and marking the beginning of another rebuild.

Another underwhelming first-half performance would almost certainly be the final nail in the coffin, thus resulting in a much larger sell-off compared to last season’s, headlined by franchise cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette if both remain unsigned beyond ’25, causing both to be dealt at a dramatically reduced cost. It’d likely include Chris Bassitt, as well, also a free agent next off-season, as well as George Springer and Kevin Gausman — both free agents after ’26.

Entering a rebuild would also probably result in significant turnover throughout the organization, namely for Atkins, manager John Schneider and president and CEO Mark Shapiro, charting a new era for the franchise — one filled with uncertainty.