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Blue Jays: How Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can become an MVP candidate in 2026
Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) reacts after hitting a two-run home run in the first inning against the New York Yankees during game three of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium
Photo credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Ben Wrixon
Feb 6, 2026, 12:00 ESTUpdated: Feb 6, 2026, 10:19 EST
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Breaking news: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is very good at baseball. He’s been impressive from the day he broke through with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2019, and recently authored one of the most impressive postseasons in history during the team’s World Series run. 
Everyone knows Guerrero is the guy in Toronto. He’s the $500-million face of the franchise, especially now that Bo Bichette is a New York Met. Yet, for all his success, he’s struggled to be truly excellent two years in a row—and that might be good news. 
Simply put, Guerrero is primed for a monster season in 2026. 
There were times last season when the pressure of living up to his new contract extension seemed to be wearing on Guerrero. He was good but not elite during the regular season, recording a .848 OPS with 23 home runs and 84 RBIs. The counting stats were his lowest totals since his rookie year, when he only played 123 games. 
Guerrero’s regular-season numbers were especially disappointing when compared to what he did in 2024. The .323/.396/.544 slash line and 75 extra-base hits he delivered that year earned him a top-six MVP finish on a last-place Blue Jays team. 
When Guerrero struggles, it’s often because he’s pulling the ball on the ground too often, usually to the left side of the diamond at the shortstop or third baseman. He hit groundballs 47.7% of the time in 2024, yet that number actually dropped slightly to 47.1% in 2025. His pulled groundball rate also dropped from 21.6% to 20.8%. So what was the problem? 
It might have been his pop-up rate, which increased from 4.2% in 2024 to 6% last season. He was above 6% in both 2022 and 2023—two of his more underwhelming seasons —after popping up just 4.8% during his MVP runner-up season in 2021. 
Pop-ups usually happen when a hitter just misses his pitch. It’s often a sign that their mechanics are slightly off, and that appeared to be the case with Guerrero for much of the regular season. He seemed like he was finally locking in around mid-August, but then he injured his hamstring and didn’t look right the rest of the way until the playoffs. 
Everything changed in the postseason when Guerrero slugged a historic eight home runs, of course. He was the most in sync with his mechanics he’s ever been. However, perhaps more importantly, he also looked more confident than ever. 
It’s that confidence more than anything that should power Guerrero to greatness in 2026—mechanics are just as much a mental thing as they are physical. He finally proved himself on the biggest stage, changing the narrative surrounding his career in the process. There’s nobody left wondering whether or not he deserved that $500-million deal. 
Guerrero has never had more reasons to believe in himself, and that bodes extremely well for him, the Blue Jays, and their fans heading into the 2026 season. 

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