For weeks, there had been speculation about veteran starting pitcher Max Scherzer potentially signing with the Toronto Blue Jays. That rumour became reality yesterday when New York Post’s Jon Heyman first broke the news of Scherzer’s one-year, $15.5 million deal with Toronto.

Entering his 18th season in the majors, this will most likely be the St. Louis native’s final year as he looks to retire with a Hall of Fame-worthy resume. The veteran starter has won World Series rings with the Washington Nationals (2019) and the Texas Rangers (2023). Over his career, he has accumulated 3,407 strikeouts, 2,878 innings pitched, a 3.16 ERA, and a 73.2 WAR while earning three Cy Young Awards.

At this stage in his career, Scherzer’s ultimate goal is no longer about fattening his bank account but rather trying to win another World Series ring. His focus for this one-year stint in Toronto is to provide as many innings as possible despite his ongoing injury concerns. The harsh reality is that the 40-year-old pitcher’s health has declined since his time with the New York Mets and his days with the Tigers, making just nine starts last year due to a back injury.

Frequent injuries have become part of the equation for any team considering Scherzer. When the Mets signed him to a massive contract, he was viewed as a high-risk, high-reward pitcher.

The Blue Jays fully understood the risks associated with signing Scherzer. Despite concerns about his health, they were willing to give the future Hall of Famer a chance because they desperately needed an innings eater—someone who could provide stability until former Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah potentially returns in August.

In essence, Scherzer’s one-year contract serves as a potential bridge and safety net for the rotation, allowing Manoah ample time to recover while allowing Scherzer to finish his career on his own terms. The Missouri-born pitcher won’t be expected to replicate the dominance he displayed with the Detroit Tigers or the Nationals. Instead, he will likely fill a role as the team’s fifth or sixth starter, tasked with covering innings and staying healthy.

This role is especially crucial for the Blue Jays, who have struggled with pitching depth over the past few seasons. Manoah was once a key piece of Toronto’s rotation a few years ago, but major struggles on the mound and eventual UCL surgery last year have seen him on the outside looking in. Now, as both Scherzer and Manoah attempt to rebound from injury-riddled seasons, their workload management will be a delicate balancing act—almost like a relay race.

Manoah is not expected to return until well after the All-Star break as he continues to work back from Tommy John surgery. Until then, Scherzer’s job will be to fill Manoah’s void by providing reliable innings. When Manoah returns in the summer, his role will be to ease Scherzer’s workload, with the Jays potentially using a six-man rotation down the stretch. There’s no guarantee Manoah will return and be an effective starter, especially since he struggled mightily in 2023, but there is a chance this follows a similar strategy to when Hyun Jin Ryu returned from his elbow surgery late in the 2023 season, providing some solid innings for the Blue Jays when Manoah was struggling.

If this rotation strategy works, it could serve as an effective solution for a playoff-hungry Blue Jays team that missed out on top-tier free-agent starters like Roki Sasaki, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. While it may not be a perfect path to contention, it’s a gamble that could pay off if everything goes as planned.

For this plan to succeed, Scherzer would need to pitch between 145+ innings in 2025 and make between 22 to 25 starts. This is a workload he has handled in recent years, throwing 145 1/3 innings in 2022 and 152 2/3 innings in 2023, so there still is gas in the tank if he can stay healthy. While those numbers are far from the 200-plus innings he logged in his prime, they are still sufficient for Toronto’s rotation to function smoothly.

The primary concern is that Scherzer pitched a career-low 43 1/3 innings in 2024. For a 40-year-old coming off multiple injuries, reaching 100 innings this season is doable but does carry the recent injury risk. Still, projections estimate he could throw up to 126 innings this season, assuming he avoids major injuries. For the Blue Jays’ sake, the right-hander must find a way to maintain his workload while staying as healthy as possible.

On the other hand, Manoah’s potential contribution in 2025 remains uncertain. Ideally, he would pitch at least 60+ innings to help alleviate Scherzer’s workload, making potentially six to ten starts (depending on when he returns) although that may be unrealistic given the timelines. Current projections estimate he will pitch just 26 or 27 innings in 2025, which seems reasonable given his recovery timeline.

One aspect often overlooked in discussions about Scherzer is his ability to deliver quality innings despite his age-related decline. His track record speaks for itself—he posted a 2.46 ERA in 2021, a 2.29 ERA in 2022, and a 3.77 ERA in 2023. More importantly, he surpassed 140 innings in each of those seasons, demonstrating his ability to remain effective. Through those three seasons, he made 80 starts and posted a 144 ERA+ and a 3.30 FIP, surpassing 477 innings and amassing a 0.959 WHIP in the process.

Beyond his on-field performance, Scherzer’s presence in the clubhouse will be invaluable. While leadership qualities cannot be quantified, his veteran experience and history with the postseason are qualities that will bode well in the locker room. His legendary competitiveness and resilience have earned him the nickname “Mad Max” for a reason.

There is a potential win-win scenario for both Scherzer and Manoah in 2025—if they can each fulfill their respective roles. Much of this hinges on whether Scherzer can regain his form and stay healthy throughout the season. He will undoubtedly bring passion and intensity to the clubhouse, but whether he resembles the Scherzer of 2024 or the dominant “Mad Max” of the past remains to be seen.

The road back to the playoffs won’t be easy for the Blue Jays. For the sake of the front office and fanbase, Scherzer must make the most of his short stint in Toronto—quite literally.