The Blue Jays have a 99.7% chance of making it to the playoffs and have a 68.4% chance of winning the AL East division as it stands.

The bigger question is more about where they will sit come October; whether that’s in the top spot in the division (and whether they get a bye into the Division Series or still face a team in the Wild Card), or land in one of those Wild Card spots, falling out of the division leaderboard. The ideal scenario would be to win the AL East and boast one of the two strongest records in the conference to secure a bye, especially given the Blue Jays’ recent Wild Card lack of success.

There is no such thing as an easy opponent, especially in the playoffs, due to baseball’s inherent randomness. But there are ideal teams the Blue Jays would prefer to face, given their strengths. Based on Toronto’s performance and opponents’ profiles, here are three teams the Blue Jays would ideally prefer to compete against in the playoff stage.

The AL Central has always been one of the weaker divisions in the league in the past few years. That said, the Detroit Tigers aren’t to be taken lightly, given their current standing; they are ahead of the Blue Jays in overall standings as well by a half-game. However, this success comes from taking advantage of an even weaker AL Central division, and the Blue Jays hold a tiebreaker against their former rival.

Where Detroit really shines is its pitching, along with home runs. The Tigers’ pitching boasts a 3.84 team ERA, which is ranked ninth in the Major Leagues, and their hitting staff recorded 176 total home runs, which also ranks ninth in the league. They also have the 2024 AL Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, in their rotation, a force to be reckoned with.

But this is far from being a flawless roster, up and down, as the team places last in stolen bases and went on a skid in July (11-14) and has won just two of their last seven games despite owning the top AL record heading into the new month. Even if there is a chance Detroit could edge out Toronto with its pitching, this is a better chance for the Blue Jays to take than facing a more complete team like the Milwaukee Brewers or the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Believe it or not, the Texas Rangers are still very much in the thick of the playoff race. The Rangers are only 2.5 games out of securing the last AL Wild Card spot, which could easily happen with a hot streak and a prolonged slump from the Seattle Mariners.

Unlike the dominant 2023 version, this iteration of the Rangers has been more inconsistent offensively while having one of the most pristine pitching records, especially from their starters. The Rangers may be topping the team ERA by placing first, but they only rank 15th in team home runs, 16th in RBIs and 23rd in hits. They also just lost Nathan Eovaldi for the rest of the year due to injury, a major blow to the rotation.

Admittedly, the Blue Jays haven’t fared well against the Rangers’ starters this entire season, when the two teams faced each other in Arlington and Toronto. However, Toronto found ways to beat up the Rangers to take away both series and hold the tiebreaker ultimately. This was all possible because Texas couldn’t muster up a consistently lethal offence for both series. This has been a trend that’s been bugging the Rangers for over 100 games, and there is a high probability of this trend carrying over, should they make it to the playoffs in October.

If the Blue Jays want any chance at winning more playoff games, playing against the Rangers may be the best path despite their excellent starting pitching (minus one Eovaldi).

Once upon a time this season, the New York Yankees really seemed lost for a good stretch of this summer. Nothing worked for them, even though the team kept its hot scoring streak. The Yankees got swept in Miami, with somehow all of their trade acquisitions contributing to one of the losses at LoanDepot Park. New York isn’t the most ideal team to face if we are solely looking at the offensive power; the team ranks first in home runs and OPS, and RBIs. What this means is that New York can outscore their opponents at any given moment.

But the reason why the Yankees are one of the more ideal opponents for the Blue Jays to face is that they have successfully quashed them in the regular season series and hold a tiebreaker. Although the two teams are still set to face each other one last time in the Bronx this month, the Yankees haven’t played the best fundamental baseball all season long.

Players like Jasson Dominguez and Anthony Volpe haven’t been living up to the expectations when it comes to their fielding metrics, nor was this roster exactly constructed to field balls quite cleanly, hence why they went and acquired infielder Ryan McMahon at the deadline. The club’s bullpen has also struggled to live up to expectations this season, ranking 21st in the league with a 4.24 mark. Devin Williams owns a 4.99 ERA, newcomer Camilo Doval has allowed six earned runs through 11 1/3 innings, and fellow newcomer Jake Bird is in the minors after struggling to find his footing with the Bronx Bombers.

Back in the 2024 World Series, the Dodgers’ playbook against the Yankees was “put balls in play” because they fully understood that New York would unravel itself against any balls that were hit to the field, and that statement still stands this season. This iteration of the Yankees isn’t built to handle chaos, and that’s worth betting on if you’re the Blue Jays.