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Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on pace to mimic a successful veteran first baseman
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Photo credit: © Raymond Carlin III - USA Today
Nick Prasad
Apr 9, 2025, 09:00 EDTUpdated: Apr 9, 2025, 07:43 EDT
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Monday morning might have felt like a Friday for Blue Jays fans. It was reported that Vladimir Guerrero Jr and the Blue Jays had agreed on a huge contract extension worth $500 million over 14 years.
The contract is still pending a physical and other clauses of requirement. The Blue Jays are in Boston, which makes this semi-difficult to complete. Nonetheless, the fanbase is satisfied that the deal has been reached and that the face of the franchise is here for a lifetime. 
Guerrero’s contract ranks third all-time in the major leagues for value. The top contract is Juan Soto’s $765 million over 15 years, followed by Shohei Ohtani, worth $700 million over 10 years, but it contains massive amounts of deferrals, so Guerrero’s contract technically ranks second in guaranteed money.
Since the reported extensions, comparisons are starting to be thrown out given the dollar value and the term length in regards to other first baseman of a high calibre. One player that stands out is Miguel Cabrera, who draws similar comparisons because he was in a similar circumstance back in the day, facing top-shelf dollars and massive contribution expectations but ultimately under two separate contracts versus one massive long-term deal. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr vs Miguel Cabrera: The contracts

Let’s begin with the contracts and monetary earnings. Today’s economy is far different from Cabrera’s time in the Major Leagues, however, both players’ earnings supported the calibre of talent they were.
Before the start of the 2008 season, his first in Detroit, Cabrera agreed to an eight-year, $152 million contract that would keep him in a Tigers uniform through the 2015 season. He was 25 at the time of the deal.
In 2014, when Cabrera was 31, he and the Tigers agreed on an additional contract extension worth $248 million over eight years that would kick in after his first contract was over, beginning in 2016. Additional vesting options worth $30 million were put in for the 2024 and 2025 seasons – this was declined following the 2023 season – and he received an $8 million buyout instead. For his career, including buyout, pre-arb, and arbitration, Cabrera earned salary wise ~$393 million – a figure that would have been higher had the COVID-19 pandemic not wiped out most of the 2020 season and players only earned 37% of their salary that season (for Cabrera, $11.1 million instead of $30 million). 
While the terms, signing bonus, and dollar figures per year are not currently known, we know that Guerrero is slated to earn $500 million over 14 years starting next season with no reported deferrals, which comes out to $35.7 million AAV. Guerrero just turned 26 years old and is earning $28.5 million in 2025, with his career earnings totalling ~$104 million.
When all is said and done, at a minimum, he is earning $604 million as a Major League Baseball player should he play the entire length of the deal, roughly $200 million more than Cabrera while hitting an AAV that ranges from $4-6 million more than what Cabrera normally made a season.

Similarities and projections

Pundits believe that Cabrera’s career and talent compare to that of Guerrero Jr. and that his journey is set to be on a similar path. Cabrera was noted to get better and produce more as his career moved forward, especially once he was in Detroit, while Guerrero’s path is still to be determined, given he is just 26. 
Cabrera
The Tigers slugger played 21 seasons in the major leagues, finishing with a .306 batting average. Through 10356 at-bats, Cabrera recorded 3174 hits, 1881 RBIs, 511 home runs, 1551 runs scored, and a stunning .382 on-base percentage and .518 slugging percentage. He has two MVPs, seven Silver Slugger Awards, 11 seasons in the top 10 for batting average, 11 seasons in the top 10 for offensive WAR, and six seasons in the top 10 for positional player WAR. 
He’s been a 12-time All-Star, winning four batting titles and one triple crown. Cabrera has won one World Series with the Florida Marlins. Cabrera attended one more World Series in 2012 with the Detroit Tigers, where they lost to the San Francisco Giants. 
Cabrera – 20 to 26
SeasonAgeTeamLgWARGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
2003
20
FLA
NL
0.6
87
314
39
84
21
3
12
62
25
84
.268
.325
.468
.793
106
2004
21
FLA
NL
3.5
160
603
101
177
31
1
33
112
68
148
.294
.366
.512
.879
130
2005
22
FLA
NL
5.2
158
613
106
198
43
2
33
116
64
125
.323
.385
.561
.947
151
2006
23
FLA
NL
5.8
158
576
112
195
50
2
26
114
86
108
.339
.430
.568
.998
159
2007
24
FLA
NL
3.2
157
588
91
188
38
2
34
119
79
127
.320
.401
.565
.965
150
2008
25
DET
AL
2.7
160
616
85
180
36
2
37
127
56
126
.292
.349
.537
.887
130
2009
26
DET
AL
5.1
160
611
96
198
34
0
34
103
68
107
.324
.396
.547
.942
144
By the time Cabrera had reached 26, he had played seven seasons in the big leagues and through 3921 at-bats, had collected 1220 hits, 253 RBIs, 630 runs, 209 home runs, and was sitting with a .311/.383/.542 slash line with a .925 OPS.
Guerrero
Guerrero is following a similar path of success, and it is believed that he will only get better and find more success as his career moves on, especially with his prime years still in front of him. The first baseman currently has a career 3188 at-bats, 917 hits, 160 home runs, 479 runs and 511 RBIs. He also has a WAR of 21.7 and is currently in his seventh season, having made his big league debut at the same age as the former Tigers All-Star.
Comparison-wise, in the same age range at present, Guerrero is 729 at-bats, 151 runs, 73 doubles, 49 home runs, and boasts a lower slash line on all accounts while trailing in OPS+ by four points (141 vs. 137), but there are a few caveats. Guerrero still has a full season ahead of him to make up some of the difference in terms of the at-bats, runs, RBIs, etc., and the Blue Jays slugger was also limited during the 2020 season because of the pandemic. Instead of a full season in 2020, he only had 60 games at his disposal, meaning he missed out on roughly 2/3 (or 63%) of a season to make up some ground compared to Cabrera.
Now, Guerrero does bridge the gap a bit in the rookie campaign category, as his 123 games trump Cabrera’s 87, but that 36-game difference still pales in comparison to the 102 games Guerrero missed out on in 2020. Overall, Cabrera has 209 games on the Blue Jays slugger at the moment and assuming Guerrero plays in 155+ games this season, there is still roughly a 50-60 game gap between the two due to circumstances out of Guerrero’s control (as both players have been healthy through the sample.
Cabrera vs. Guerrero
PlayerAgeFromToGABRH2B3BHRRBISBBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
Miguel Cabrera
20-40
2003
2023
2797
10356
1551
3174
627
17
511
1881
40
1258
2105
.306
.382
.518
.901
140
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
20-26
2019
2025
830
3188
479
917
180
6
160
511
20
355
561
.288
.363
.498
.861
137
Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
The first baseman has completed only 33% of Cabrera’s overall career. His RBIs represent approximately 27% of Cabrera’s total and 31% of home runs. Vladdy has 14 years left on his contract, which would bring him to a 21-year major league career, which is the same period of Cabrera’s MLB career. 
Looking ahead, there is a solid chance that Guerrero could meet or even exceed Cabrera’s numbers when all is said and done, especially since the Detroit Tigers first baseman missed considerable time in 2018 and 2023 due to injury while also only suiting up in 58 games in the pandemic, similar to Guerrero (he played all 60). Only time will tell if Guerrero’s career can mimic that of the surefire Hall of Famer and if he can follow in similar footsteps by winning multiple MVP Awards, Silver Slugger’s, and All-Star nods, the Blue Jays will be just fine, even if the contract sours over time.

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