Breaking down each MLB Wild Card Series
Photo credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 1, 2024, 09:00 EDTUpdated: Oct 1, 2024, 09:34 EDT
Summer has come and passed, and if you’re the type to wake up when September ends, you’re just in time for MLB’s first playoff stage, the Wild Card series. Eight teams will be playing the first round of playoff games for three consecutive days from Tuesday until Thursday. Four teams that sweep or win two games will move on to the Division series.
So, here’s a quick breakdown of each Wild Card series:
Detroit Tigers (86-76) vs Houston Astros (88-73)
The Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros have been the definition of resilience this season despite the odds against them. The Astros began on an incredibly uninspiring losing record, while the Tigers also struggled to rise against their American League Central opponents for the first half of the season. But when both teams began to turn things around in the summer and rose steadily above their opponents.
Overall, this series will be a matchup between rising stars and playoff veterans. Houston has made 17 playoff appearances, whereas Detroit broke its decade-long playoff drought. There is certainly value in playoff experience. At this point, most of the Astros players have tasted playoff baseball and the immense pressure it brings. However, injuries have sidelined many key pitchers, such as Luis Garcia Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Justin Verlander. While the Astros have filled the holes in the pitching staff through trades, the durability of their pitching will be in question for this Wild Card series.
The Tigers have the upper hand in pitching against the Astros as they boast up-and-coming pitchers like Reese Olson and Tarik Skubal. Their bullpen has also been more reliable in their performances compared to the Astros this season. However, when it comes to offensive cores, Detroit’s offence has more of a question mark as there is a lack of superstar power relative to Houston’s lineup, which features Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve.
Given Houston and Detroit’s contrast in strengths and weaknesses, this series will determine whether the experience will dominate or the youth will continue to rebel.
Kansas City Royals (86-76) vs Baltimore Orioles (91-71)
These two teams represent the hope on the horizon as they face each other after their own dark ages. The Orioles climbed out of their abyss much earlier with their excellent drafting and development. The Royals, on the other hand, just recorded their miraculous playoff-clinching season merely one year after their lost season with the most losses in franchise history.
Beyond the surface-level matchup, this will serve as proof of which rebuild is more sustainable, at least in this playoff series. While both teams may not have the most elite pitching, the Royals have a slight edge in that department, given the consistent performances from Lucas Erceg, Seth Lugo, Michael Lorenzen, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Michael Wacha.
Baltimore’s Achilles heel is still pitching, especially starting pitching, despite the team’s overall dominance. The Orioles’ starting pitching sorely lacks Kyle Bradish and John Means and while Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin are solid, Trevor Rogers has been nothing but a lost cause for the team. Furthermore, the team’s bullpen is a replica of the 2023 Phillies bullpen that consists of Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto (they used to have Craig Kimbrel but he was designated for assignment weeks before.)
That said, the Orioles have more firepower in their offence than the Royals. This season alone, Baltimore accumulated 235 home runs, which is 65 more home runs than Kansas City. With sluggers like Colston Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and Jordan Westburg, there are seemingly no holes to capitalize on this strong lineup. In contrast, Kansas City has featured more of a pesky lineup that will test the rival pitching’s endurance.
One thing to keep in mind is that both the Orioles and Royals have tapered off more towards the end of the season, even if they still ended each month with mostly a winning record. So, the question really becomes which team will get hot again faster and become the tormentor. If you’re into watching the future stars, this will be the series you have to catch.
Atlanta Braves (89-73) vs San Diego Padres (93-69)
This is possibly the most evenly matched-up series out of all of the Wild Card series. The Braves and Padres have risen as contenders from the jump and, despite some struggles, have clinched playoff spots. The significant difference this time around is the Braves’ humbler offensive record. A season ago, Atlanta absolutely dominated all offensive categories and won more than 100 games. But this time around, the offensive struggles were more apparent and the team barely hung onto the Wild Card spot.
As you can imagine, the Padres are superior on paper, with a .263 batting average compared to the Brave’s .243. Even with some injury concerns throughout the season, Atlanta has performed far better than any other team in pitching. This pitching staff is capable of bringing out the best in its pitchers, and there are places for pitchers with various experiences, such as Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach.
Even if the Padres fall slightly behind the Braves in pitching, they also have their own weapon-like pitchers, such as Dylan Cease and Jason Adam. But the real wild card in this series is Atlanta’s pitcher Chris Sale’s absence. This absence could shake up the series more as it opens up both teams to more volatility. All in all, this series has the potential to become a true scoring fest or a pitchers’ duel through and through.
New York Mets (89-73) vs Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)
Perhaps the wildest series of all time is the one that looks like a head-scratcher. This iteration of the Mets wasn’t supposed to contend but solid offensive productions from the lineup and unexpectedly robust pitching thrust them into the playoff conversation. That all happened after Grimace threw out the first pitch, so maybe there is a possibility of drafting the beloved McDonald’s character on the playoff roster. Jokes aside, the Mets have witnessed an unprecedented level of cooperation from its offence and pitching at the right time.
Much like New York, Milwaukee also quickly claimed the top of the National League Central division through its above-average pitching and offence. The wildest part about the Brewers is that the team still enjoyed the boon even after former manager Craig Counsell’s departure and starting pitching ace Corbin Burnes’ trade. In short, the Brewers have found a way to develop both their young and veteran pitchers and have relied on their mastery in pitching to cruise through their season. That’s how the team effectively transformed journeyman Tobias Meyer into a hidden gem.
The only issue with Milwaukee’s playoff bid is the durability of their offensive production. For the most part, each player on the Brewers’ lineup has successfully contributed to more wins. However, all-star outfielder Christian Yelich was sidelined after injury and the question the team will have to answer is whether its Yelich-less lineup will continue to replace his production and do more than just barely get by.
The Mets’ conundrum is a little different from the Brewers’ since their weakness lies in more volatile pitching. Sean Manaea, Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Jose Quintana have all performed to their expectations and more but their longer track records indicate more question marks than anything else. Thankfully, New York’s lineup has more thump with contributions from superstar and MVP-candidate Francisco Lindor, slugger Pete Alonso and underrated Brandon Nimmo.
This will be the series to watch to see which type of dominance and hotness will be more favourable in a high-pressure playoff environment. Never forget, pitching monsters Brewers lost to the ascendant Arizona Diamondbacks with a much more questionable rotation last year. Anything can happen in October.