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Checking in on the Wild Card and Tank-a-Thon races as the 2024 MLB season winds down
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Photo credit: © Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
Brett Holden
Sep 8, 2024, 09:00 EDTUpdated: Sep 8, 2024, 10:20 EDT
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As we enter into the final month of the MLB regular season, the playoff picture becomes more clear and the tanks are in full effect, so, let’s take a look at how the Wildcard and the Tank-a-Thon races are shaping up down the stretch.

American League

Baltimore Orioles: +5.5
The battle for the AL East Crown has gone on all season long. The New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles have gone back and forth all year, battling for the top spot. Currently, the Yanks sit a half-game back of the Orioles for the top spot, but New York is entering an interesting part of their schedule.
Heading down the stretch, the Yankees will play five AL teams and two NL teams. The schedule isn’t too strenuous as they only face two teams currently in a playoff spot. One of those teams is the Baltimore Orioles, which will head into the Bronx in the second-last series of the season.
The big thing to watch for with the Yankees in the final month will be their pitching. Before the MLB Trade Deadline, the Yankees sat fifth in the MLB in ERA with a 3.71; since the deadline, the Yanks sit 22nd with a 4.64. Without adding a new arm at the deadline, the Yankees have suffered. If there were to be anything that’ll hinder the Bronx Bombers, it’ll be their arms. Clarke Schmidt, Cody Poteet, Jonathan Loisaga, and Ian Hamilton all sit on the IL for New York but will get rookie Luis Gil back on the mound this weekend. Gerrit Cole did leave his most recent start with a calf cramp, but he calls it a “non-issue.”
The Yankees are the best team on this list, and the only reason they are in this Wildcard race is because of the pure firepower in the AL East.
Kansas City Royals: +1.5
The Royals are in the middle of a huge battle with the Minnesota Twins in their push for the Playoffs. With a three-game set this weekend, the Royals can really set a tone for their September.
Already taking game one of the series on Friday 5-0, the Royals have been benefiting from a recent rise in their offence. Heading into the trade deadline, the Royals sat 14th in the MLB in batting WAR. Since then, they have sat 7th in baseball and have the 5th-best average across the league as well.
It hasn’t been small ball success for KC either; the Royals have hit the second most home runs since July 31st in the American League and the fourth-best slugging in all of baseball.
The biggest issue for the Royals down the stretch has been their inability to close out games. Kansas City’s bullpen has blown seven saves since the beginning of July, the second most in the league. This is a stark contrast from the start of the year, where they had the 5th least blown saves in the AL.
Lucky for them, Bobby Witt Jr. is a God. Sitting third in the league in OPS, behind only Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, Bobby is going to carry this team into the Postseason and prove why he deserved that massive contract.
Minnesota Twins: – 0 GB
The Minnesota Twins are an interesting beast. Now sitting 5.0 games back of the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians after losing to the Royals on Friday, Minny is going through an odd stretch.
Going only 4-6 in their last ten games, the Twins need to bounce back against the team they are trailing in the Wildcard race by half a game, the Kansas City Royals.
As mentioned, the Twins have had some strange results through this span: losing 15-0 to the eighth-worst team in baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays, 5-0 to the Royals on Friday, and 9-4 to the Rays, and getting swept by the Braves while getting outscored 23-13.
Their series with the Royals this weekend could dictate their Postseason status. For them to do that, they need to do whatever they can to get out of the mode of mediocrity they are currently flying by as of late. Their offence is 14th in baseball in WAR and 17th in barrel percentage since the end of July. They have not excelled offensively and their pitching hasn’t stood out either.
The Twins pitching staff sits 16th in baseball in ERA, 16th in home runs allowed, and 12th in barrels hit since the Trade Deadline. In contrast, their pitching WAR does sit 9th in baseball in that timeframe, which speaks more to their offence’s lack of production of late than their pitching.
One thing the Twins pitchers have done well lately is striking out batters. They sit second in strikeouts since July 31st and hold the third-best strikeout percentage in the American League. If they can lift their play out of mediocrity, it could make that race between the Royals and the Twins a little more interesting entering October.
Seattle Mariners: 4.5 GB
The Mariners have had one hell of a season… and not in a positive way. Starting the year, the Mariners continued to battle for the top spot in the AL West and, at one point, led the division by 10.0 games. But since the All-Star Game, it has been an utter freefall.
Seattle now sits 4.5 games back of the Houston Astros, who sat in the bottom five in the MLB back in May. Now, it’s the Mariners who are chasing Houston and have suddenly found themselves reinventing their identity in the middle of the season.
After getting swept in Chavez Ravine by the Dodgers, the Mariners promptly fired their Manager, Scott Servais and named Dan Wilson as their new bench boss. Wilson spent 12 seasons in the Pacific Northwest as a player and has been in the organization for years since.
The surprising thing for Seattle since the coaching change has been the change in production from the pitching staff and the hitters. With Servais in charge, the M’s had one of the best rotations in all of baseball, sitting 3rd in the American League in pitching WAR as their rotation of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller shoved to start the year. Since then, the Mariners pitchers sit 14th in the AL in pitching WAR with a measly 0.6… What?
On the flip side, everybody knew the offensive struggles by the Seattle Mariners to begin the year. They were dead last in the MLB in batting average with the single most strikeouts by almost a hundred and the 22nd worst WAR in baseball. Since the coaching change, Seattle’s batters sit fifth in WAR with a 3.1.
The additions of Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena along with the offensive production of Luke Raley and Cal Raleigh since the Deadline, have lifted this team down the stretch, but the team needs to be better.
Similar to the Twins, they need to stop being so ordinary. 5-5 in their last ten and only two games over .500. If the M’s can go on a little run, they could make the Wildcard race a bit of a spectacle by the end of September.
Boston Red Sox: 5.0 GB
The BoSox have had a strange year. Sitting in the middle of their division for the entire season. They’ve spent the season watching the O’s and the Yankees beat the hell out of each other and the Rays and the Jays struggle in the AL Beast, but have continued to keep their head above water.
They’ve been able to keep their head above water, but it hasn’t been because of their defence. Boston has been the single worst defence in all of baseball all year, committing 102 errors this year. While their defence is bad, Boston has struggled all over the place. Their pitchers have the 29th-best WAR since the Trade Deadline with a 0.6 and their offense sits 23rd with a 2.4.
Unlike the Yankees, the Red Sox have an AL East-heavy September, facing each team in the division at least one more time and the Rays twice to end the year. Now, this could go in their favour; facing teams within the division and having so many in the final month allows for tons of opportunities to gain ground in the race with the O’s and the Yanks and potentially tee off on the teams below them in Tampa and Toronto.
If Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida can continue their tear in the second half of the season, the Red Sox could make a sneaky push for the Postseason.
Sep 5, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres second baseman Xander Bogaerts (2) is congratulated by Elias Diaz (15) after hitting a two-run home run during the second inning against the Detroit Tigers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

National League

San Diego Padres: +2.5
The Padres are a damn good team but fall victim to being in a damn good division.
San Diego has pushed the Dodgers all year, letting them know they are breathing down their necks. But the Dodgers have caught a bit of breathing room of late. However, if it wasn’t for Jackson Merrill, the Padres would be nowhere near this conversation.
Just hand Jackson Merrill the NL Rookie of the Year already. This guy has proved game-in and game-out that he is not only one of the best rookies in baseball but one of the best clutch hitters in the league. Merrill is tied for third in the league in home runs in the ninth inning with five with six RBIs and a .333 average. This dude has played saviour way too many times for the Friars this season.
But as I mentioned, this team is still damn good. Third in pitching WAR and fifth in batting WAR since July 31st, the Padres have not made it easy on the Dodgers. But, just like the Yankees, San Diego is in a very tough division. Trying to fend off the D-backs who sit a game-and-a-half back of the Pads in both the division and the Wildcard race, San Diego needs to be more concerned with potentially bottling it to the D-backs than attempting to catch the Blue Crew in Hollywood.
Arizona Diamondbacks: +0.5
As mentioned with the Pads, the reigning NL Champs are in one of the best divisions in baseball. The thing going for them is that they are in the exact same position they were in last year, staying under the radar until they need to strike… kinda like a snake… wild.
Unfortunately for Arizona, they have snuck into a bit of a slow patch recently, going only 3-7 in the last ten and 10-10 in the last 20. They have been unable to find any kind of momentum heading into the final month of the year.
Their struggles have not been because of their offence though, setting the tone for the rest of the league offensively since the end of July and sitting on top of the league in batting WAR, slugging, OBP, OPS, home runs, RBIs, and wOBA.
While the bats have been hot, the arms have been not. (I know that’s bad grammar and that’s not really the case. It’s more hot and cold, but I just wanted the rhyme). The whiffs have been there, sitting in the top ten in both strikeouts and strikeout percentage, but the runs are still scoring. 
The D-backs have the eighth-worst ERA in baseball since the Deadline and have allowed the third-most hard-hit balls in that time. So, while they are missing barrels, when they do hit a barrel, it causes issues.
If Arizona can begin to limit the hard-hit balls heading into October, they could be a real issue in the Postseason.
New York Mets: –
The New York Mets are the hottest team in baseball and have arguably been one of the most fun teams in baseball in the second half of the year.
Their nine-game win streak has propelled them into a Wildcard spot and a 9-1 record over the last ten games and 15-5 in their last 20. Led by MVP candidate Francisco Lindor, the Mets have made an improbable second-half push. Pete Alonso has continued to master his craft, leading the charge for the Mets in long balls since the trade deadline, but so is Mark Vientos.
Vientos is having quite the breakout year. In his first full season in the MLB, Vientos leads the team in batting average, slugging, wOBA, and barrel percentage while also being tied for first in OBP with Frankie Lindor. He has been quite the player for the Metropolitans.
While the bats have seen their fair share of stars, it’s the pitching that has seen the biggest bump over the past few months. Mets’ pitching sat in the bottom third in the league in terms of ERA, WHIP, and hard-hit percentage to start the year. But that isn’t even the worst part; they walked the second-worst number of batters, had the worst walk percentage, and had the third-worst pitching WAR in all of baseball. It’s not great.
However, since the deadline, there has been a dramatic change: Top 10 in WAR, ERA, and strikeouts in the Mets pitching staff have shown up. The catalyst of this resurgence is their ability to miss barrels. New York sits tied for first in the league for barrels hit since the trade deadline, has allowed the least amount of hard-hit baseballs, first in hard-hit percentage, and third in barrel percentage. While the strikeouts sit 10th in the league, the Mets have been able to keep it in the yard, allowing their bats to jump the yard rather than their opponents.
The Mets have been baseball’s hottest team down the stretch and heading into October, they could finally be that dark horse we’ve been waiting to see for years.
Atlanta Braves: 0.5 GB
The Atlanta Braves pitchers are good. The most strikeouts in baseball, the best WAR in baseball, the second-best ERA in baseball, the fifth-best WHIP in baseball, and the third-best strikeout-walk rate. That’s damn good. But their offence has not been as effective.
While they led the league in homers since the beginning of August, they have been relatively regular. Atlanta hitters hold the ninth-worst WAR this season, 17th-best average, and the 17th-most RBIs all year. That isn’t the production you would normally expect from the Braves offense.
Now, does the absence of the reigning NL MVP, Ronald Acuna Jr., hurt? Absolutely. However, they received a great amount of slugging production from Marcell Ozuna this year. With 37 bombs, 98 RBIs, and a .953 OPS, Ozuna has led the way for the Braves this year. Fortunately for Atlanta, Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano, and Orlando Arcia have really kicked it into gear down the stretch. Plus, the addition of Jorge Soler has welcomed some extra pop to the lineup.
If their pitching can stay dominant and can continue to get offensive contributions from the new guy and the supporting cast, the Braves may become that team we expect them to be in October.
Chicago Cubs: 4.0 GB
Remember when the Cubbies weren’t buyers at the trade deadline? Yeah, me too. Welp, maybe they shoulda been because, with a month to go in the season, Chicago sees themselves 6.0 games back of the final Wildcard spot. Is it a lot? It’s certainly more than you would want, but it’s doable.
We’ve seen numerous teams this season dwindle a 6.0+ game difference into striking distance (Houston, San Diego, Arizona). But does Chicago have what it takes to make that kind of run? I don’t think so. Chicago’s longest win streak this season has only hit six, and while they have hit five in a row twice, they haven’t been able to take advantage of those momentum builders.
Their offence has been effective of late, jumping from the 20th-best batting WAR heading into the Trade Deadline, all the way up to second and Pete Crow-Armstrong has been lighting the diamond ablaze. PCA has led the Cubs in basically every hitting category, with at least 100 ABs since the end of July, and has really elevated his game. Pete has raised his batting average from .194 in the first half to .321 in the second half.
Chicago has a curious schedule ahead. Already down 2-0 in their final series with the Yankees, the Cubs still have to go through the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers and the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies. But on the flip side they will also play the lottery chasing Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, and Oakland Athletics. The Cubbies will need to take advantage of the bottom feeders they face down the stretch in the A’s, Rox, and Reds, but if they can steal a couple from the Phils and Dodgers, the Chicago Cubs could make for a compelling end to the season.
May 13, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Miami Marlins third base Otto Lopez (61) hits a two run home run in the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Tank-a-Thon

Moving on from the teams battling for a playoff spot to those battling for the highest odds in the 2025 MLB Draft Lottery. The Chicago White Sox and the Oakland Athletics cannot win the lottery with the competitive balance rules and can only pick 10th or higher.
Colorado Rockies: 22.45%
First, a team we all expected to be in this portion of the list, the Colorado Rockies. Holding the second-worst record in baseball. Last year, the Rockies set a franchise low in wins with 59, and this year, they aren’t far off that mark.
Heading into the final month of the season, the Colorado Rockies have 53 wins and face six teams either in a playoff spot or fighting for a Wildcard spot, including the Dodgers twice. Getting six wins in 19 games, in theory, should seem simple, but these teams will head into matchups with the Rockies looking to take advantage of the quality of their opponent. These are the types of games teams in the hunt love to play down the stretch.
Colorado has continuously been one of the worst statistical teams in baseball this year, sitting 29th in the league in batting WAR with 3.5, last in the league in pitching WAR with 4.4, have allowed the single most amount of runs in baseball this year with 813, second most home runs with 185, and the least amount of strikeouts with 970 – the only team not to reach 1000 punchouts.
While the Rockies have the best odds, I still think they have a better roster at the moment than the Miami Marlins, who decided to sell everybody and the kitchen sink at the deadline. Their Tank-a-Thon odds will depend on how badly the top teams decide to beat down on the Rox throughout September.
Miami Marlins: 22.45%
Now, this is not really where we expected to see the Marlins this year. A year removed from their first postseason appearance since the Covid year, and first in a full-length season in two decades, the Marlins looked like they were beginning to come together as that young team we expected them to be… So much for that.
As mentioned with the Rockies, the Marlins have the same amount of wins as Colorado and the third-worst record in the league.
The story with the Fish is their lack of experience. Since the MLB Trade Deadline, the player with the most MLB service is Anthony Bender, who has 2.153 years of MLB service time in his career. The Marlins are so inexperienced that they have eight batters with under a year of service time, making 26-year-old Jesus Sanchez the elder statesman of the offence.
Unfortunately for Miami, though, They don’t really face a ton of top-notch competition like the Rockies in September. The Dodgers and the Twins are the only teams the Marlins will play who are actively in a playoff spot after this weekend. The Fins also have three teams in the lottery race as well as the back-and-forth Atlanta Braves.
This schedule is perfect for a young team, the inspiration to play spoiler for the youth on teams like the Braves, Dodgers, and Twins, while winning some potentially character-building wins in the Pirates, Jays, and Nationals.
Jake Burger has been smashing baseballs down the stretch for Miami, hammering 11 homers and 20 RBIs since the end of July, but it hasn’t just been Burger producing for the Marlins. Youngsters Connor Norby, who they acquired from the Orioles at the deadline for Trevor Rogers, Xavier Edwards, and Derek Hill have been quite productive in August and the start of September for the Fish.
However, it’s the pitching that has been the biggest deterrent. With only two pitchers with an ERA below 3.15 and at least 10 IP since the deadline, runs allowed have been a massive issue. Sitting dead-last in the MLB in pitching WAR with -0.2, the Marlins have the worst ERA in baseball since July 31st with 5.57, the second-highest WHIP with 1.47, and have hit the second most barrels with 84. This is not a recipe for success.
There is no getting out of this. The only thing to watch the Marlins for is potential future stars and the race of disgrace.
Los Angeles Angels: 18.03%
Unlike the Marlins, we expected this one. Fresh off losing Shohei Ohtani to the cross-town rival Dodgers, the Angels did virtually nothing to supplement the loss. While Mike Trout began the season playing like the Mike Trout we all know and love, it was short-lived. A meniscus injury eventually ended his season despite his darndest efforts to make a comeback.
Since then, it’s been all downhill from there. Only one hitter has a .300 batting average in Luis Rengifo. Heck, he is the only player to have a batting average north of .256.
The biggest issue with the Angels is their lack of quality prospects. Currently sitting second last according to MLB Pipeline in prospect pool rankings, if there is any team on this list who needs the first overall pick, it’s the Angels. RHP Caden Dana is currently the Angels’ top prospect, and he sits 75th in the MLB’s top 100, followed closely by their second-best prospect, 2B Christian Moore, at 81.
The Angels from Anaheim have a repetitive schedule to wrap up 2024, playing the White Sox twice, the Astros twice, and the Rangers twice. Now, unfortunately for the Angels, they are significantly better than the White Sox and should take four, if not five, of the six games they will play, which will certainly affect where they finish in the Tank-a-Thon race. Luckily (I guess), for the Angels, the Astros should beat the Angels, and I expect the Rangers to snake a couple from the Halos late in the season.
The Angels are a lost cause and will likely be on this list for a long time to come.
Washington Nationals: 10.20%
Another team who has found themselves in the middle of a tough spell the last few years. Since winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals have finished last in their division every year. Luckily for the Nats, they have the Miami Marlins in their division and currently sit 9.0 games ahead of the Fish, so they may finally not finish last this season! That’s a positive.
Outside of that, there hasn’t really been anything else positive for the Nationals. While youngsters like James Wood, Alex Call, and Luis Garcia Jr. have flourished in their elevated roles in the second half, all hitting above .300, that’s where all the positivity ends.
Unfortunately for the Nats, their schedule is quite nerve-wracking for a lottery team. Washington faces five teams in a playoff position or playoff race down the stretch and only one lottery team.
Lucky for them, the one lottery team they play is the Miami Marlins. Now, I’m not one to suggest throwing games. That would be a perfect time to “catch up” to the Marlins in the lottery race.
The Nationals sit 12th on MLB Pipelines prospect pool rankings with three prospects in the top 50 in all of baseball. Regardless of where the Nats finish in the lottery race, they will have a prime spot to upgrade their pipeline. 

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