With just over a week remaining in 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays remain solely focused on this off-season’s business rather than beginning early planning for next winter, as they continue to pursue an impact hitter to bolster next season’s lineup and remain open to further complementing an already deep pitching staff.

However, once the calendar officially flips to 2026 and the front office begins to intensify negotiations with arbitration-eligible players ahead of the Jan. 8 salary-exchange deadline, many of those conversations will also likely include discussions beyond one-year arbitration-avoiding deals, particularly for those entering pending free agent status.

For the Blue Jays, of their four arbitration cases, two will enter free agency next off-season — outfielder Daulton Varsho and left-hander Eric Lauer. In addition, four other players are set to reach the open market following the ’26 season: Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, George Springer and Yimi García.

Chances are, the franchise won’t be able to retain all six of those pending free agents. But perhaps at least a few of them will return in 2027. We’ve seen management conduct early business in this regard before, locking up cornerstone first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to his historic 14-year, $500 million extension last spring.

If they’re to continue that trend this spring, here are the players who are most likely to be extended before Opening Day arrives next season — and vice versa, the ones who aren’t.

We didn’t see as much of Varsho as the Blue Jays would’ve liked last season, with the club’s cornerstone centre-fielder — who leads all major league outfielders in defensive runs saved (85), outs above average (50) and fielding run value (52) since 2022 — limited to just 71 games due to injuries.

But, considering he’s coming off a career year at the plate, where he slugged .548 with 20 home runs and a .310 isolated power, earning a 123 wRC+ (100 league average), the 29-year-old very much remains an essential piece of this team’s position-player core moving forward. He’s the glue that helps keep everything together in the outfield.

And that’s why he’s a prime extension candidate this winter.

As general manager Ross Atkins hinted at last February, Toronto’s front office has already been of the mindset of extending Varsho beyond next season, grouping his importance to this roster alongside Guerrero and Bo Bichette — who’s currently a free agent.

They hit gold by striking early with Alejandro Kirk’s five-year, $58 million extension last spring, which set the table for arguably his most complete performance to date, as evidenced by his career-high 4.7 fWAR. The biggest hurdle they could face with Varsho, though, is finding a comparable contract for the game’s top defensive outfielder.

Varsho, who’s been worth a combined 11.6 fWAR over the last four seasons, compares similarly to the 11.7 rating that Brandon Nimmo posted across four seasons before he signed his eight-year, $162 million extension with the New York Mets. Bryan Reynolds’ eight-year, $106.75 million extension with the Pittsburgh Pirates could also be used as a potential guide.

Both Nimmo ($20.25 million average annual value) and Reynolds (~$13.3 million AAV) are far more valuable at the plate than they are in the outfield. Meanwhile, Varsho’s value primarily stems from his elite defence, meaning neither is necessarily a perfect comparison. Their deals could serve as a rough blueprint, constructing a comfortable middle point of five or six years with an AAV between $13-$20 million.

Bieber’s shocking decision to opt into his $16 million player option for ’26 created immense confusion throughout the industry, causing many to speculate on the potential factors behind forgoing what would’ve been a lucrative free-agent market.

Perhaps it was related to the right forearm fatigue he experienced late last season, as reported by The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon. Or maybe he was sold on returning to a Blue Jays staff that welcomed him with open arms following his mid-season arrival from the Cleveland Guardians. Both reasons would be completely justifiable.

Or… what if both sides already have a handshake agreement in place to resume contract negotiations involving a multi-year extension later this off-season? That possibility doesn’t officially have legs yet, and maybe it never will. But it’d certainly help explain the decision to bet on himself with a one-year deal, especially considering most outlets predicted him to sign for three years and at least $20 million per season in free agency.

Even if that condition doesn’t exist, with Gausman and Lauer also pending free agents, and José Berríos able to opt out of his deal after next season, Bieber remains a likely extension candidate this spring. He displayed flashes of front-line potential post-Tommy John surgery last fall, which could put him in the same ballpark as the three-year, $75 million deals that both Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea signed a year ago.

Gausman’s five-year, $110 million contract has been an absurd bargain for the Blue Jays over the last four seasons. But with the 34-year-old starter, who’ll turn 35 next month, entering the final season of his team-friendly deal, internal conversations will likely soon begin about a potential extension.

Since arriving in Toronto, Gausman has been one of baseball’s most valuable — and durable — starting pitchers, ranking fourth in fWAR (17.9) at his position since 2022 — behind only Tarik Skubal (18.8), Logan Webb (19.1) and Zack Wheeler (19.5). While his production faded in 2024, the veteran right-hander was sensational last season, led by a second-half performance that saw him pace the American League in FIP (2.76) and fWAR (2.4) to maintain his value as a front-line starter.

The going rate for pitchers of that calibre has soared to historic heights since the last time Gausman reached free agency, and if his dominance carries over into ’26, he’ll surely be poised to cash in on next year’s diminished crop of free-agent starters. To lock him down this spring, it may take something comparable to Wheeler’s three-year, $126 million extension.

Unlike Gausman’s contract, the last few years made Springer’s six-year, $150 million deal seem like a massive swing and miss for the Blue Jays’ brass. From 2023-24, 115 major league hitters earned at least 1,000 plate appearances, including Springer, who placed tied for 91st in wRC+ (99) in that span.

But the perception around his franchise-altering contract now features a much more positive spin, following a one-for-the-ages offensive showing that put him (166) behind only Shohei Ohtani (172) and Aaron Judge (204) among the sport’s league leaders in wRC+.

With another year left of Springer’s contract, the organization doesn’t have to rush into any decisions regarding the 36-year-old’s future beyond next season. They can let the ’26 campaign play out and revisit any extension talk afterwards. His price tag will grow considerably if he replicates such a performance, though.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays probably need a larger sample size before they feel comfortable making any commitments beyond an additional year with Springer, who figures to remain a full-time designated hitter moving forward. Plus, unless you’re Kyle Schwarber, players in hitter-only roles don’t usually command lucrative guarantees in this era.

So, while extending Springer warrants the front office’s consideration this spring, tabling negotiations until next off-season probably makes more sense for all involved.

Lauer’s odds of being extended before next season are probably slim to none. The Blue Jays don’t need to close any potential doors involving their 2027 staff by heading down that avenue, after signing Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce, as well as having Bieber and Gausman as possible extension candidates.

The 30-year-old lefty was excellent in ’25, and could deliver another savvy under-the-radar performance during his second season with the franchise. But whether or not he returns in ’27 will depend on the fates of those other two veterans — and Berríos, too.

Bringing back García on a very reasonable two-year, $15 million contract last winter made plenty of sense for Toronto. He was tremendous during his first tenure, and was expected to operate as the primary setup man for closer Jeff Hoffman — except he spent all but 21 innings on the IL during Year 1 of his deal.

Now at 35 years old, the Blue Jays need a big bounce-back performance from the hard-throwing right-hander next season. If he stays healthy and returns to his closer-level form, it could earn him another year or two north of the border during the ensuing winter.