The Toronto Blue Jays‘ bullpen has been a unique case study this season. As a unit, the group ranks second in the league with their 303 strikeouts, and their collective 3.53 ERA has them sitting in ninth spot. Given the club’s rotation woes at times and their lack of offense before their recent hot streak, the Blue Jays’ relief corps was heavily relied on to help the club either win close games or supplement the starter, which has resulted in over 270 innings needed in relief, ranking seventh.

Because of this overuse, especially to some of the more trusted arms, the Jays have their fair share of injury woes. Nick Sandlin landed on the IL in mid-April with a lat strain, and Yimi Garcia hit the injured list with a shoulder impingement on May 24th. The Jays have also been without Ryan Burr also season long and recently, the club got back Erik Swanson (more on this later). While the club isn’t experiencing the slew of injuries compared to other teams around the league, losing Sandlin and Garcia were huge blows to this club’s bullpen, given how much the club leaned on them out of the gate.

Fast forward to today, and things are starting to look a little cloudy when it comes to the future bullpen picture for the Blue Jays.

In those two pitchers’ absence (and some other poor performances from other relievers), the Jays have called upon 19 different relievers this year (and one Michael Stefanic in mop-up duty). While some have come and gone, whether they are still in the system or not, a few stood out amongst the group.

Most recently, Braydon Fisher has been a trustworthy arm in the Jays’ pen, amassing a 2.76 ERA through 14 outings. Spencer Turnbull has one outing under his belt after signing late with the Jays, and pitched two clean innings as well. Right-hander Paxton Schultz has also found success in the big leagues through eight appearences, although he’s back in the minor leagues right now as the corresponding action for Turnbull joining the squad. Then there’s the likes of Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty, who have both been excelling down in the Jays’ bullpen from the very start of the year.

So why is this all relevant? Well, that’s because some tough conversations may need to take place over the next few weeks depending on the return schedules for the likes of Sandlin, Garcia, and Burr, as well as the potential return of starter Max Scherzer and the impact that may have on the bullpen.

Of the group, Sandlin is the closest to returning to big league action. He has two rehab assignments under his belt in triple-A Buffalo, and although he struggled in his first outing (four earned runs across 1/3 of an inning), his second outing last night was a step in the right direction. The right-hander is likely coming back sometime this week or early next week, and the Jays will need to send someone down in his place. The same goes for Garcia, although he is still weeks behind, considering he is still throwing bullpens down in Florida. Burr is even further behind.

Considering that Sandlin is likely coming back sooner rather than later, who goes from the current bullpen picture?

Lock-wise, Yariel Rodriguez, Jeff Hoffman, Fluharty, and Little aren’t going anywhere – they are integral parts of this club’s relief pitching staff. That leaves Chad Green, Erik Swanson, Eric Lauer, Turnbull, and Fisher as the remaining names.

Now, with Scherzer injured and the Jays needing a fifth rotation spot until his return, Lauer has been working in that capacity, and his spot is likely considered safe unless the Jays decide to promote someone from the farm system to be a dedicated starter like Adam Macko. I imagine Lauer isn’t going anywhere until Scherzer is brought back to the big leagues, and even then, the team may choose to keep him over Bowden Francis, who is struggling on the mound right now. That’s an article in its own right.

But sticking to the script of the group mentioned above (minus Lauer for now), history would dictate that when Sandlin returns, Fisher is likely the one being sent down to the minors. He has the minor league option, and it’s an easy move to make in regards to the 40-man roster. However, I find it difficult to see manager John Schneider and the Jays front office demoting a reliever with a wicked slider/curveball combo that has kept the walks in check and struck out opposing batters at a 12.1 K/9 clip. Did he struggle during that opening start a couple of weeks back? Absolutely, but outside of that blip, he hasn’t allowed a single earned run and just seven hits since being promoted.

The same cannot be said for Green or Swanson. Chad Green has allowed a league-leading nine home runs amongst qualified relief pitchers (second place – Jeff Hoffman) and has really scuffled as of late, allowing seven earned runs through his last seven outings. Swanson is faring no better, with the right-hander struggling to find his 2023 form and has allowed five earned runs through the short 4 2/3 innings sample size while striking out just two batters compared to three walks.

For argument’s sake, statistically, Fisher has earned a spot in the bullpen over Green and Swanson – that’s just straight math. Now, for the Jays to cut one of those two loose compared to Fisher is where things go off the rails, as both veteran arms are out of MiLB options (per Fangraphs) and would need to be DFA’d off the 40-man roster. Both are free agent eligible this winter, so losing either arm doesn’t impact the long-term picture, but it remains to be seen whether the front office is willing to cut a veteran loose this early into the season compared to the easy move of moving a controllable arm back down to triple-A. A team with a winning mindset might make that move, but there are a lot of caveats at play.

Throw in the complications that the potential returns of Scherzer and Garcia over the next week mean more roster cuts are coming, although that is putting the cart before the horse in a sense. Injuries and poor performances from the names mentioned above might dictate what moves are made in two to three weeks, but the current situation is already going to cause some issues.

To summarize, yes, the Jays’ bullpen is performing well and has the opportunity to get better with the return of Sandlin and Garcia shortly. However, if this club is going to put their best foot forward, tough decisions are going to need to be made with some veteran arms down in that bullpen. There should be no reason why the likes of Green and Swanson are getting priority slots or taking a roster spot over a controllable arm just because of their contract in this stage of the game for Toronto, especially if the ‘win-now’ mindset is at the forefront.

It’s not a comfortable situation by any means – both Green and Swanson are respected and liked in that clubhouse – but if winning is the name of the game, there are some arms on this roster that deserve a bullpen spot over others when push comes to shove.

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