With the Los Angeles Dodgers just one win away from a World Series championship, the official start of the 2024-25 off-season is nearly here, as free agency will open five days after this year’s winner is crowned.

The good news for the Toronto Blue Jays is they only have one pending free agent: left-hander Ryan Yarbrough. That’s the benefit of trading every single expiring contract during the regular season. So, general manager Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office can hit the ground running once the free-agent market opens next week.

Coming off a disappointing 2024 season that saw this franchise miss the playoffs, you can expect management to have its hands in just about every cookie jar on the shelf this winter, especially with as many holes as they have to fill on their roster.

Between upgrading an underwhelming offence, overhauling a bullpen ravaged by injuries and poor performances, rounding out the starting rotation, and fortifying the catcher position — the Blue Jays have lots of work ahead. They likely won’t address every area via free agency. That being said, there should be plenty of payroll spending available based on their projected CBT payroll of approximately $213 million, according to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource.

That puts the organization roughly $28 million shy of the initial $241 million luxury tax threshold, which they exceeded in 2023 and were on track to surpass again this past season before narrowly slipping under after becoming sellers at the trade deadline, resetting their tax bracket.

This is one of the most critical off-seasons in Blue Jays’ history, and its success will determine the franchise’s direction beyond 2025. With little time to waste, let’s get to work on how the organization might approach this fall’s free-agent market.

Betting on internal improvements and veteran, complementary additions aren’t going to cut it this time — the Blue Jays need to be big-game hunting this time.

Of course, the biggest fish in the sea is New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto, who’s expected to command a contract north of $500 million this off-season. However, that isn’t expected to repel Toronto’s front office from attempting to execute the impossible: steal the newly-turned 26-year-old superstar away from the Biggle Apple.

But, as aggressive as the Blue Jays might act, many throughout the industry already believe he’s destined to remain in New York, whether he re-signs with the Yankees or leaves for the Mets. Either way, the odds don’t favour him joining Canada’s lone MLB franchise. Atkins has been in this position before, though, as recently as last winter with Shohei Ohtani. However, he can’t afford to be left without a quality pivot point for a second straight off-season.

In the likely event the Blue Jays don’t land Soto, they must have a better strategy already in place to ensure their lineup — which ranked 20th in SLG (.389) and 26th in home runs (156) in 2024 — takes a positive step forward in ’25. One advantage they’ll have this winter compared to last is a more talented secondary tier of hitters beneath the Yankees slugger.

That market is expected to include impact players such as first basemen Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, outfielders Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill and Jurickson Profar, shortstop Willy Adames, third baseman Alex Bregman and designated hitter/right fielder Anthony Santander.

Considering Toronto’s position-player group features many openings, nobody should be off-limits from that group. Granted, management will also likely explore the trade market for an offensive upgrade or two, and rightly so. As long as they add at least one middle-of-the-order thumper to an offence that already includes Vladimir Guerrero Jr., that’s all that matters.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen, well, requires a makeover.

It wasn’t pretty in 2024 for a reliever corps that finished 29th in bullpen ERA (4.82) and dead last in almost everything else, including FIP (4.66), HR/9 (1.46), hard-hit rate against (41.2 per cent) and fWAR (-2.5). But that’s to be expected when your closer, Jordan Romano, only throws 13.2 innings due to injury and primary setup reliever, Erik Swanson, spends a month and a half working through his command woes at triple-A.

If Romano and Swanson are tendered contracts for 2025, that fills two of the eight spots in Toronto’s ‘pen. Add Chad Green, who has one year remaining on his contract at $10.5 million, and Génesis Cabrera, there’s another two filled. For argument’s sake, let’s also assume Yarbrough returns on a cost-effective, short-term deal after excelling to a 2.01 ERA and 16.2-per-cent K-BB rate difference over 31.1 innings post-trade.

That leaves the Blue Jays with, at minimum, three holes to fill — none of which can likely be addressed internally. To this point, Atkins and his staff have resisted making a splash in the free-agent reliever market due to the immense volatility involved with the position. While that’s understandable, they’ll likely have to make a few exceptions this winter.

First and foremost, management needs to procure one, probably two, reliable high-leverage relievers. They could start atop the market with the top tier of Carlos Estévez and Tanner Scott. Or, perhaps drop down to the next one featuring Jeff Hoffman, Tommy Kahnle, Clay Holmes, Blake Treinen, Kirby Yates and former Blue Jays reliever Yimi García.

Toronto would also benefit from acquiring a prominent lefty to fill the void of Tim Mayza, who’s now pitching out of New York’s bullpen in the World Series. Scott, of course, would be a tremendous addition in that regard. Based on the considerable drop-off after the All-Star southpaw, though, the front office may have to look to the trade market for quality alternatives.

Thanks to Bowden Francis’ dominant final two-month stretch, four of the five spots in the Blue Jays’ starting rotation are set for next season, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt occupying those final three. Now, the challenge is locating that fifth and final member.

There’s a bit of depth beyond those four with Yariel Rodríguez and prospect Jake Bloss. But it’d probably be wise to have a third hurler competing for the fifth starter’s role, providing an extra layer of injury protection — something this organization has been a tad thin on in past seasons.

The Blue Jays could round out their pitching staff in a few different ways. They’ll want to devote most of their off-season spending to improving the offence and bullpen. Still, they could aim a bit higher than a traditional back-end starter if the right opportunity arises.

Not as high as Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell territory or even the next tier down with Jack Flaherty, Max Fried and Luis Severino. But perhaps Toronto could test the waters on a mid-rotation group that includes Michael Wacha ($16-million player option), Frankie Montas ($20-million mutual option), Jose Quintana and former Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi.

If all else fails, management can fall back on the likes of Andrew Heaney, Alex Cobb, Martín Pérez, Michael Lorenzen, Matthew Boyd and Chris Flexen as fifth-starter options. Plus, they should have second-half returns from Alek Manoah and Ricky Tiedemann to help contribute, at least to some extent.

The story almost writes itself with this one. Who wouldn’t jump out of their seat if Jansen returned to the Blue Jays this winter, right? We can probably all agree Kirk would certainly be among the first.

Just two years ago, that duo sat among the best in baseball, as Toronto’s catchers led the majors in fWAR (7.9) during the 2022 campaign. Keeping both on the active roster together has been a struggle since then, mainly due to Jansen’s unfortunate track record with hit-by-pitches and foul tips. When healthy, though, they remained one of the more talented catching pairs — offensively and defensively.

At the same time, a potential reunion with Jansen — dealt to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for three prospects this past season — will likely be complicated by this winter’s thin catching market, which he may end up headlining as the best-available offensive backstop. If that’s the case, the 29-year-old might exceed Toronto’s ideal price point.

There’s also the notion the Blue Jays feel confident with Kirk catching upwards of 100 games in 2025, as Atkins alluded to during his end-of-season press conference. That could mean targeting more of a traditional backup — like Carson Kelly or Austin Hedges — rather than securing a 1B, with Kirk acting as their 1A.

Much of that situation will likely depend on how the catching market develops. However, one player the front office should at least consider is Kyle Higashioka, who slugged .476 in 84 games with the San Diego Padres this past season — the highest of his eight-year MLB career, excluding the shortened 2020 season.