Let the bullpen construction begin!

Among the top off-season priorities for the Toronto Blue Jays is overhauling a reliever corps that ranked 29th in ERA (4.82) and 30th in fWAR (-2.5) last season, serving as the worst bullpen in baseball. They have five of eight spots in the ‘pen to fill as of now. However, that figure could climb even higher if closer Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson aren’t tendered contracts by next Friday’s non-tender deadline.

The only reliever guaranteed to return in 2025 is Chad Green, who has one year remaining on his contract at $10.5 million. So, as you can probably gather, there’s plenty of work to be done. Some may need to be completed closer to the trade deadline, assuming this team remains competitive by then. At the same time, though, there must be at least a significant dent carved into this off-season project before spring training arrives.

You’re probably familiar with the saying, “There’s more than one way to peel an orange,” right? Fortunately for the Blue Jays, there’s more than one way to build a bullpen. But doing so is typically easier said than done, especially with as many vacancies as they currently have.

Nevertheless, let’s explore what avenues will be available for general manager Ross Atkins this winter — via free agency and the trade market.

RPs: Tanner Scott, Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman

Making a splash for one of these three high-end relievers would certainly be a step in the right direction for Toronto’s bullpen rebuild. Scott, in particular, is extremely appealing as one of the sport’s most dominant left-handed relief pitchers.

In reality, though, odds are Atkins won’t be a major player in this market. That’s been a constant theme for this front office, whose largest commitment to a free-agent reliever remains Yimi García’s three-year, $16-million contract. Plus, all three of Scott, Estévez and Hoffman will surely blow past that amount this off-season.

Perhaps if the Blue Jays didn’t have as many roster needs elsewhere, they’d give more consideration to breaking their philosophy of avoiding high-priced impact relievers.

RPs: Clay Holmes, Yimi García, Tommy Kahnle, Andrew Kittredge, José Leclerc, Danny Coulombe, Phil Maton, Caleb Ferguson, Ryne Stanek, Andrew Chafin, Buck Farmer

Now, here’s where things start to become interesting.

The Blue Jays would undoubtedly welcome the idea of acquiring someone like Holmes, who, despite losing his closer’s job with the New York Yankees down the stretch in 2024, remains a talented, high-leverage reliever with one of the most electrifying arsenals. He’s a ground-ball machine with his high-90s sinker and owns a virtually untouchable slider that produced a 40-per-cent whiff rate a season ago.

But he, too, likely won’t come cheap. Any chance the right-hander has of joining Toronto will probably depend on how his market develops over the winter. That may also apply to another former Yankees hurler, Kahnle, whose devasting changeup would add considerable swing-and-miss to next season’s bullpen.

There are also many alternatives besides poaching pitchers from an AL East rival. Like a potential reunion with García, for example. However, that could change based on the status of his right elbow after he finished last season on the IL.

This avenue could also present an opportunity to procure a seventh/eighth-inning arm, with Kittredge, Leclerc, Maton and Farmer available. Or, they could explore adding a lefty to the group, like Coulombe or Chafin.

If someone slips through the cracks here, it might be management’s chance to acquire an impact reliever at a bargain price.

RPs: David Robertson, Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Blake Treinen, Kirby Yates, Craig Kimbrel, Chris Martin, Joe Kelly, Luis García, Adam Ottavino

A fine wine reliever, anyone?

Based on the number of bullpen arms the Blue Jays need to add, betting on an experienced veteran could be a worthwhile strategy that doesn’t break the bank. Even more intriguing is that many of them are coming off strong performances.

Take Robertson and Yates, for instance. At 39 and 37, respectively, they each produced a strikeout rate north of 30 per cent and were worth an identical 1.9 fWAR with the Texas Rangers in 2024. While injuries have plagued Treinen over the past few years, his sweeper produced the fourth-highest whiff rate (49.2 per cent) of any qualified sweeper (min. 50 PAs) and placed third in run value (11) last season.

It was a good year to be a 35-plus-year-old reliever. Even hurlers like Chapman and Ottavino, another pair of former Yankees, found success despite their concerning walk totals. So, it might be wise to take a chance on one of these vets nearing the end of the road.

RPs: Paul Sewald, A.J. Minter, Lucas Sims, John Brebbia, Shawn Armstrong, Scott Barlow, Héctor Neris, Will Smith, Keynan Middleton, Lou Trivino

External player evaluations are essential to constructing a reliable bullpen — look at how effective the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers are with them. Both clubs have routinely pumped out once-forgotten relievers into impact arms over the years, and now the Blue Jays should (finally) aim to do the same.

Of course, the organization has long struggled in that department — with its homegrown talent and externally-acquired hurlers. Still, they haven’t been shy about taking on a reclamation project or betting on someone to return to form after missing time due to injury. And there are certainly a few intriguing relief pitchers who fit that description from this winter’s class, namely Sewald and Minter.

This could be where the Blue Jays are the most active among the free-agent reliever tiers.

RPs: David Bednar (PIT), Anthony Bender (MIA), Calvin Faucher (MIA), Andrew Nardi (MIA), Kyle Finnegan (WSH)

Shifting to the trade market scene, let’s begin with the impact relievers on teams we can probably assume won’t be legitimate playoff contenders in 2025: the Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals.

After years of speculation, will the Pirates finally trade Bednar this off-season? Maybe. But the return he’d bring would be significantly reduced compared to what it could’ve been in years past, considering he was worth a career-worst minus-0.2 fWAR last season and is projected to earn $6.6 million in his second of three arbitration years per MLB Trade Rumors’ projections.

Perhaps the Marlins could serve as an alternative to the lucrative free-agent prices for relievers, as Faucher and Nardi are both pre-arbitration players, while Bender is due a projected $1.4 million in his second of four arbitration years. The Nationals could join in, as well, if they’re willing to retain a portion of Finnegan’s projected $8.6 million salary in his final season of club control.

Granted, all three teams may benefit from holding off until closer to next season’s trade deadline, especially considering the rich returns this past season’s crop fetched. But it’s still an avenue worth exploring for Toronto’s front office.

RPs: Eli Morgan (CLE), Jason Foley (DET), Will Vest (DET), Bryan Abreu (HOU), Jhoan Duran (MIN), Griffin Jax (MIN), Devin Williams (MIL), Joel Payamps (MIL), José Alvarado (PHI), Ryan Helsley (STL), JoJo Romero (STL), Pete Fairbanks (TBR)

As you can tell from the massive list above, a large handful of teams are expected to explore trade scenarios for relievers who’re either getting more expensive through arbitration or nearing free agency and likely won’t return. And this could be an area where the Blue Jays become creative.

Toronto has little to offer in the form of impact pitching prospects. However, with a surplus of cost-effective and controllable infielders, they could leverage a few of those pieces — from a group that includes Addison Barger, Spencer Horwitz, Leo Jiménez and Josh Kasevich, among others — to help shore up the back end of their bullpen through the trade market.

But considering the timelines of Romano, Swanson and Green, all free agents after 2025, the Blue Jays would probably prefer to target hurlers under club control beyond next season, likely taking Williams and Helsley — also free agents after ’25 — off the list.

RPs: Ryan Pressly (HOU), Brusdar Graterol (LAD), Camilo Doval (SFG)

Disregarding that previous claim for a second, Pressly — entering the final year of a two-year, $42-million contract in 2025 — could be a potential fit for the Blue Jays following a frustrating season with the Houston Astros that saw them replace him with Josh Hader in the closer’s role.

In all likelihood, both sides are headed for a divorce after next season, and the Astros are currently facing a financial crunch this winter as their projected ’25 collective balance tax (CBT) payroll hovers just below the $241 million luxury tax threshold. So, they could attempt to offload his $14 million salary, or at least the majority of it, meaning his acquisition cost would likely be fairly inexpensive.

Another former closer who’d benefit from a fresh start is Doval, who finished tied for second in saves in the majors with 39 during the 2023 season but nearly recorded a 5.00 ERA and was demoted to triple-A amidst a miserable performance in ’24. With Ryan Walker now the Giants’ closer and Doval on the hook for a projected $4.6 million in arbitration, it may be time for all involved to part ways.

While things are a tad different with Graterol, who’s been plagued by shoulder issues throughout his big-league career, the hard-throwing righty may find himself on the outside looking in following the Dodgers’ World Series victory. He’s likely slotted fairly low on the club’s bullpen depth chart and is due a projected $2.7 million in his third of four arbitration years.

If Los Angeles decides to move on, an increased role in Toronto could prove beneficial for the 26-year-old, whose average fastball velocity (98.1 m.p.h.) placed in the 98th percentile last season.