Corbin Burnes could be the best pitcher on the free agent market.

Last week, <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/42331709/mlb-offseason-2024-25-passan-predictions-juan-soto-roki-sasaki-corbin-burnes-pete-alonso">ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote an article predicting</a> where players would land. In that article, he mentioned the Toronto Blue Jays and Corbin Burnes as potential fit.
That begs the question, how did Burnes do, what will his contract look like, and is he a fit for the Jays? Let’s take a look.
<h2>Corbin Burnes’ stats</h2>
The Baltimore Orioles acquired Burnes in February from the Milwaukee Brewers. In his first season in the American League, the 30-year-old had a 2.92 ERA and a 3.55 FIP in 194.1 innings pitched, along with a 23.1 K% and a 6.1 BB% for a 3.7 fWAR.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Corbin Burnes, Frisbee 84mph Sweeper. 🥏
21 inches of horizontal break. <a href="https://t.co/9ERXwyqzCz">pic.twitter.com/9ERXwyqzCz</a>
&mdash; Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1841214123624804848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 1, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
His best season by far was in 2021 with the Brewers, where he had a 2.43 ERA and a 1.63 FIP in 167.2 innings pitched, along with a 35.6 K% and a 5.2 BB%. Burnes’ 2022 was solid as well, as he finished with a 2.94 ERA and a 3.14 FIP in a career-high 202 innings pitched with a 30.5 K% and a 6.4 BB%.
For his entire career, Burnes has a 3.19 ERA and a 3.21 FIP in 903.2 innings pitched, along with a 28.8 K% and a 7 BB% for a 21.5 fWAR. It’s safe to say that Burnes has been consistently been one of the best pitchers throughout his career, but what does his next contract look like?
<h2>Corbins Burnes’ contract outlook</h2>
In <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5863532/2024/10/31/mlb-free-agents-2024-contract-team-predictions-soto/">The Athletic’s Jim Bowden prediction article</a>, he believes that Burnes will earn a seven-year, $247 million deal, with the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, and Baltimore Orioles being interested in his service. His year salary on that deal would be around $35.286 million.
Bowden lists Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $245 million deal, Jacob deGrom’s five-year, $185 million deal, and Aaron Nola’s seven-year, $172 million deal as comparables.
Similarly, <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/20008/corbin-burnes">Spotrac has Burnes’ market value at $30.1 million annually</a>, or a six-year deal worth just under $181 million in total. Comparable contracts for Burnes include Zack Wheeler’s three-year, $126 million deal, Sonny Gray’s three-year, $75 million deal, Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162 million deal, and Blake Snell’s two-year, $62 million deal that he just opted out of.
<h2>Is Corbin Burnes a fit for the Jays</h2>
It’s been reported by numerous people that the Blue Jays have a strong desire to add a starting pitcher to push Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen. The Cuban right-handed pitcher’s stuff just plays better in relief, and adding another ace such as Burnes would arguably make the Blue Jays rotation one of the best in baseball.
With that being said, over $200 million committed to a 30-year-old pitcher is a lot, even if he’s well worth the price tag at the moment. Yes, Burnes would easily make the Blue Jays better, but wouldn’t that money be better spent acquiring a bat, a handful of relievers, and a few depth starters?
Out of any area on the Blue Jays, the rotation is pretty solid, and aiming to sign a player like Yusei Kikuchi seems like a smarter idea than getting Burnes.
<hr />
As always, you can follow me on Bluesky @ryleydelaney@bsky.social.

Corbin Burnes could be the best pitcher on the free agent market.



Last week, <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/42331709/mlb-offseason-2024-25-passan-predictions-juan-soto-roki-sasaki-corbin-burnes-pete-alonso">ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote an article predicting</a> where players would land. In that article, he mentioned the Toronto Blue Jays and Corbin Burnes as potential fit.

That begs the question, how did Burnes do, what will his contract look like, and is he a fit for the Jays? Let’s take a look.
<h2>Corbin Burnes’ stats</h2>
The Baltimore Orioles acquired Burnes in February from the Milwaukee Brewers. In his first season in the American League, the 30-year-old had a 2.92 ERA and a 3.55 FIP in 194.1 innings pitched, along with a 23.1 K% and a 6.1 BB% for a 3.7 fWAR.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1841214123624804848

His best season by far was in 2021 with the Brewers, where he had a 2.43 ERA and a 1.63 FIP in 167.2 innings pitched, along with a 35.6 K% and a 5.2 BB%. Burnes’ 2022 was solid as well, as he finished with a 2.94 ERA and a 3.14 FIP in a career-high 202 innings pitched with a 30.5 K% and a 6.4 BB%.

For his entire career, Burnes has a 3.19 ERA and a 3.21 FIP in 903.2 innings pitched, along with a 28.8 K% and a 7 BB% for a 21.5 fWAR. It’s safe to say that Burnes has been consistently been one of the best pitchers throughout his career, but what does his next contract look like?
<h2>Corbins Burnes’ contract outlook</h2>
In <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5863532/2024/10/31/mlb-free-agents-2024-contract-team-predictions-soto/">The Athletic’s Jim Bowden prediction article</a>, he believes that Burnes will earn a seven-year, $247 million deal, with the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, and Baltimore Orioles being interested in his service. His year salary on that deal would be around $35.286 million.

Bowden lists Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $245 million deal, Jacob deGrom’s five-year, $185 million deal, and Aaron Nola’s seven-year, $172 million deal as comparables.

Similarly, <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/20008/corbin-burnes">Spotrac has Burnes’ market value at $30.1 million annually</a>, or a six-year deal worth just under $181 million in total. Comparable contracts for Burnes include Zack Wheeler’s three-year, $126 million deal, Sonny Gray’s three-year, $75 million deal, Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162 million deal, and Blake Snell’s two-year, $62 million deal that he just opted out of.
<h2>Is Corbin Burnes a fit for the Jays</h2>
It’s been reported by numerous people that the Blue Jays have a strong desire to add a starting pitcher to push Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen. The Cuban right-handed pitcher’s stuff just plays better in relief, and adding another ace such as Burnes would arguably make the Blue Jays rotation one of the best in baseball.

With that being said, over $200 million committed to a 30-year-old pitcher is a lot, even if he’s well worth the price tag at the moment. Yes, Burnes would easily make the Blue Jays better, but wouldn’t that money be better spent acquiring a bat, a handful of relievers, and a few depth starters?

Out of any area on the Blue Jays, the rotation is pretty solid, and aiming to sign a player like Yusei Kikuchi seems like a smarter idea than getting Burnes.

<hr />

As always, you can follow me on Bluesky @ryleydelaney@bsky.social.

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