Perhaps the Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals can connect on another reliever trade this off-season. It’s not like they haven’t gone down that path before.

The two clubs made a pair of deals centred around two relief pitchers in 2023, one involving Génesis Cabrera and the other with Jordan Hicks, with the latter’s departure elevating Ryan Helsley’s role to the Cardinals’ primary closer. Less than two years later, the 30-year-old could now be a potential trade target for the Blue Jays.

Following consecutive disappointing seasons, St. Louis’ front office has decided to shake things up. They’re planning to turn over an aging roster that’s underperformed each of the last two seasons, and they’re open to moving almost anyone, particularly players on lucrative deals and those nearing free agency — which includes Helsley, a free agent after 2025.

Toronto, of course, is an obvious candidate to pursue the two-time All-Star after non-tendering Jordan Romano ahead of last Friday’s deadline, unceremoniously ending his tenure with Canada’s lone MLB franchise. That’s created a massive vacancy at the back end of the bullpen, albeit one that could be filled by acquiring the reigning Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year winner.

For those outside the NL Central, most were likely unfamiliar with Helsley heading into last season, and understandably so. But all that changed over the past calendar year as the right-handed closer introduced himself to the rest of the sport amidst a dominating campaign.

Helsley made a career-high 65 relief appearances in 2024, leading the majors in saves while converting 49 of his 53 opportunities, pitching to a 2.04 ERA and 2.41 FIP across 66.1 innings — also a career-high. He accounted for 2.3 fWAR, the highest rating of his six big-league seasons, which finished tied for third among qualified major-league relievers.

The 6-foot-2 hurler’s most notable attribute is, by far, his high swing-and-miss output. While his strikeout rate has fallen nearly 10 per cent since posting a career-best 39.3-per-cent clip two years ago, his 29.7-per-cent rate still ranked in the 90th percentile this past season. Looking under the hood, we’ll also find he owned a 97th percentile whiff rate (36.1 per cent) and a 93rd percentile chase rate (33.5 per cent).

In addition to generating swing-and-miss, Helsley also excels at minimizing hard contact, as evidenced by his 35.4-per-cent hard-hit rate against and 3.7-per-cent barrel rate against from 2024 that placed in the 76th and 97th percentiles, respectively.

Both traits have made the talented righty very effective against both righties (25.3 per cent K-BB%) and lefties (22.5 per cent K-BB%) since 2022, his breakout season — an element that’d prove valuable for a Blue Jays roster with Brendon Little currently slotted as their lone left-handed reliever in the ‘pen.

Helsley’s three-pitch arsenal features an explosive fastball — whose average velocity (99.6 m.p.h.) ranked in the 99th percentile in ’24 — that generates plenty of high-riding action from its 97th-percentile spin rate (2,551 RPMs). But he’s known more for his vertical-breaking slider, which he used a career-best 48.3 per cent of the time last season, inducing a 51-per-cent whiff rate.

That impressive weapon was one of the best sliders in baseball last season. It produced a plus-13 run value, ranking fourth among qualified sliders (min. 50 plate appearances) in the majors, and recorded the fifth-highest whiff rate (51 per cent) in that category. For the traditional results crowd, opponents hit just .171 against his primary breaking ball, slugging .195 — both slight upticks from 2023.

Part of what makes Helsley’s slider so dominant is its design, showcased through its 164 Stuff+ grade (100 league average) from a season ago, the third-highest in the majors among qualified big-league pitchers (min. 50 innings pitched), behind only Griffin Jax (170) and Clay Holmes (183).

Because of Helsley’s unique arm angle, which he’s gradually increased over the years since his MLB debut in 2020, his four-seamer and slider blend together as a result of his over-the-top release point, perfectly tunnelling both pitches off one another to disguise them from opposing hitters.

It is worth pointing out that Helsley’s a stuff-over-command hurler, meaning his below-average accuracy has occasionally proven troublesome. But his ability to limit home runs (0.54 HR/9 since 2022) and miss bats have typically prevented those woes from reaching a boiling point, keeping the train on the tracks in most situations.

Strictly from an on-field-value perspective, Helsley would undoubtedly be a tremendous addition to Toronto’s bullpen rebuild. That goes without saying. However, another benefit from exploring that path is he’s projected to earn $6.9 million in his final arbitration year per MLB Trade Rumors’ model, making him an affordable high-leverage reliever, especially compared to the lucrative prices that the top-tier free-agent relief arms are expected to command.

That would surely be incredibly appealing for the Blue Jays brass, whose largest commitment to the reliever position was Chad Green’s $21-million guarantee over two seasons. So, chances are they’d be thrilled to procure Romano’s replacement at such a team-friendly cost.

Since Helsley only has one season of club control remaining, his acquisition cost would likely be very affordable, too. What type of return might the Cardinals seek? Considering Nolan Arenado’s days in St. Louis appear to be numbered, the front office is probably in the market for a young, controllable third baseman.

And the Blue Jays certainly have one they could centre a package around, don’t they?

Trading Addison Barger this off-season would have to be perfectly executed, though, given the organization’s third-base depth is already a major concern heading into next season. Thus, management can’t afford to subtract from that position without planning to make a subsequent addition.

To be fair, Toronto could acquire a high-leverage reliever and an experienced third baseman in the same deal with St. Louis by adding Arenado (who owns a full no-trade clause) alongside Helsley. But at what cost? Financially, the eight-time All-Star is under contract through 2027 at approximately $30.5 million per season. While he hasn’t lost much of a step defensively, his offensive production has rapidly declined over the last two seasons, accounting for a 106 wRC+ in ’23 and a 102 in ’24 (100 league average).

For a team that needs to prioritize run creation this winter, it seems unlikely they’d make a major push for Arenado, regardless of how much salary the Cardinals would be willing to retain.

Focusing on a Barger-Helsley package could be far more feasible, although only if the Blue Jays are confident about extending the right-handed reliever. With Green and Erik Swanson also free agents after next season — as well as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette — they’d have one-third of their bullpen reaching the open market without an extension in place.

Extending Helsley would almost certainly require the front office to hand out a lucrative multi-year contract. At the same time, signing him before he enters free agency would surely be more cost-effective — at least compared to pursuing him when 29 other clubs can also bid on his services.

Forming a trio of Swason, Green and Helsley at the back end of the ‘pen would be a great start for Toronto. It’d put a sizeable dent into the rebuild, but other additions would have to follow, including at least another high-leverage reliever and a lefty specialist.