Remember in the dying days of 2023 when the Blue Jays signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa?

The reaction from fans wasn’t great to say the least. After a month of speculation regarding two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, it seemed like a massive step down for the Jays to sign utility player Kiner-Falefa.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
IKF ➡️ YYZ 
OFFICIAL: We’ve signed UTIL Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year contract. 
IKF won a Gold Glove in 2020 and is a 3x team Heart and Hustle Award recipient. 
Welcome to the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a>, Izzy! <a href="https://t.co/QNmjZmeKc0">pic.twitter.com/QNmjZmeKc0</a>
&mdash; Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1740764815239307633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 29, 2023</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Don’t get it twisted, going from Ohanti to Kiner-Falefa, especially when almost no one had signed at this point, wasn&#8217;t great. Signing Kiner-Falefa locked them into an outfield, while re-signing Kevin Kiermaier solidified their outfield. However, Kiner-Falefa hasn’t just met the low expectations set for him, but has blown by them.
Let’s take a look at Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
<h2>Before the Blue Jays</h2>
The Texas Rangers drafted Kiner-Falefa in the fourth round of the 2013. Originally a catcher, the Hawaiian-native moved around the diamond in his 2018 debut, playing 305.1 innings behind the plate, 170.1 innings at second base, 347 innings at third, and 17 innings at shortstop, a precursor to the role he’d play in the future.
Kiner-Falefa eventually moved off catcher in 2020, mainly playing third base and shortstop before the Rangers traded the utility player to the Blue Jays’ American League East rival, the New York Yankees before the start of the 2022 season.
With the Bronx Bombers, Kiner-Falefa slashed .253/.311/.333 with 10 homers in 892 plate appearances, posting a significantly below average wRC+ of 84, but providing great defence and great versatility. To give him at bats, the Yankees played him at all three outfield positions.
It was reported at the 2023 trade deadline the Blue Jays had interest in the utility player, but a trade never transpired. However, the Blue Jays got their man early in the 2023-24 off-season.
<h2>Isiah Kiner-Falefa met and exceeded expectations</h2>
When the Blue Jays signed Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15 million deal, the reactions weren’t great.
Kiner-Falefa had never posted a wRC+ above 100 in any of his six prior seasons and while his defence was great in years prior, his career-best fWAR of 1.6 in 2022 declined to 0.6 in 2023. So why did the Blue Jays sign a utility player to a $15 million deal, when players like Gio Urshela, Tim Anderson, and Amed Rosario signed for a combined $500,000 less than Kiner-Falefa?
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Remember the off-season talking point when people said Amed Rosario, Gio Urshela, and Tim Anderson signed for $500k less than Isiah Kiner-Falefa combined?
IKF: 105 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR
Rosario: 110 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
Urshela: 86 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR
Anderson: 22 wRC+, -1.1 fWAR
Oh.
&mdash; Ryley Delaney (@Ryley_L_D) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ryley_L_D/status/1800271981734252621?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 10, 2024</a></blockquote>
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Well, it’s because Kiner-Falefa is good.
This season, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is slashing .275/.319/.394 with four homers in 209 plate appearances for what looks to be a career-best season with the bat, a 105 wRC+. On top of that, his 1.3 fWAR accumulated this season is already his third-best season and there’s still a whole lot of season left. According to Joan Birenbaum of TheScore, Kiner-Falefa is on pace for 3.3 fWAR.
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Only 64 games into 2024, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has already surpassed his previous career-high in win probability added. He&#39;s on pace for 3.3 fWAR, more than double his previous career-high (1.6). Obviously, things can change in a hurry, but wow, has he ever exceeded expectations.
&mdash; Jonah Birenbaum (@birenball) <a href="https://twitter.com/birenball/status/1800170594941780232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 10, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The bat is average at best, there’s no disputing that. He’s only four homers away from matching his career-high, but hitting double-digit home runs is a possibility. On top of that, he’s had not just one, but two clutch hits when the Blue Jays really needed it.
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Did the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> ever need that one.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the walk-off hero tonight in Toronto. <a href="https://t.co/EqJgjGJ99L">pic.twitter.com/EqJgjGJ99L</a>
&mdash; Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) <a href="https://twitter.com/KeeganMatheson/status/1798530860121227464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 6, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
With that being said, the glove alone has helped Kiner-Falefa blow by expectations. At second base, the 29-year-old has 3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 2 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 210.2 innings played at the keystone. In 18 innings at short, Kiner-Falefa has 2 DRS and 1 OAA, which is impressive considering it’s a counting stat.
However, his best position by far this season has been third base. In 256 innings at the hot corner, he has accumulated 5 DRS and 2 OAA, along with a 3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating, and if he were to play 150 games at the position, his UZR would be 15.3 if this pace continues.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Isiah Kiner-Falefa clears the bases in the 10th inning!
IKF now has 5 RBI on the day! <a href="https://t.co/qR3mOxXncC">pic.twitter.com/qR3mOxXncC</a>
&mdash; MLB (@MLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1799932130241175790?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 9, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The bat has been slightly above average, but Kiner-Falefa’s ability to defend at three infield positions has greatly helped this team save runs.
<h2>For funsies, let’s compare him to who he replaced</h2>
When the Blue Jays acquired Matt Chapman from the Oakland Athletics prior to the 2022 season, there were some big expectations for the slugging third baseman who had won the platinum glove twice.
In two seasons with the Jays, Chapman slashed .234/.327/.429 with 44 home runs in 1202 plate appearances for a 114 wRC+, winning the Gold Glove in the 2023 season for third base. The Jays extended a qualifying offer, which he declined and eventually signed with the Bay-area San Francisco Giants.
This season, the 31-year-old is slashing .240/.317/.407 with eight homers in 274 plate appearances, giving him a 111 wRC+ and a 1.7 fWAR. Defensively, he has accumulated 5 DRS and 0 AA in 559.2 innings at the hot corner, along with a 2 UZR, which would be 3.3 over 150 games.
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Routine Matt Chapman play 🥱 <a href="https://t.co/5EAHKGEsQZ">pic.twitter.com/5EAHKGEsQZ</a>
&mdash; SFGiants (@SFGiants) <a href="https://twitter.com/SFGiants/status/1795638655597547625?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 29, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Defensively, it’s safe to say that Kiner-Falefa has been better than his replacement, while his bat trails behind Chapman’s, especially in the power category. However, Chapman signed to a three-year, $54 million deal with opt-outs after the 2024 and 2025 season, with a mutual option for the 2027 season. Compared to Kiner-Falefa’s 1.3 fWAR and 105 wRC+, Kiner-Falefa is on a much better contract.
Kiner-Falefa may regress as the season goes along, he’s been a below average hitter throughout his career. However, after just two months into the season, a hated signing has turned into one of the most beloved players among fans.
<hr />
As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Ryley_L_D.

Remember in the dying days of 2023 when the Blue Jays signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa?



The reaction from fans wasn’t great to say the least. After a month of speculation regarding two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, it seemed like a massive step down for the Jays to sign utility player Kiner-Falefa.

https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1740764815239307633

Don’t get it twisted, going from Ohanti to Kiner-Falefa, especially when almost no one had signed at this point, wasn't great. Signing Kiner-Falefa locked them into an outfield, while re-signing Kevin Kiermaier solidified their outfield. However, Kiner-Falefa hasn’t just met the low expectations set for him, but has blown by them.

Let’s take a look at Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
<h2>Before the Blue Jays</h2>
The Texas Rangers drafted Kiner-Falefa in the fourth round of the 2013. Originally a catcher, the Hawaiian-native moved around the diamond in his 2018 debut, playing 305.1 innings behind the plate, 170.1 innings at second base, 347 innings at third, and 17 innings at shortstop, a precursor to the role he’d play in the future.

Kiner-Falefa eventually moved off catcher in 2020, mainly playing third base and shortstop before the Rangers traded the utility player to the Blue Jays’ American League East rival, the New York Yankees before the start of the 2022 season.

With the Bronx Bombers, Kiner-Falefa slashed .253/.311/.333 with 10 homers in 892 plate appearances, posting a significantly below average wRC+ of 84, but providing great defence and great versatility. To give him at bats, the Yankees played him at all three outfield positions.

It was reported at the 2023 trade deadline the Blue Jays had interest in the utility player, but a trade never transpired. However, the Blue Jays got their man early in the 2023-24 off-season.
<h2>Isiah Kiner-Falefa met and exceeded expectations</h2>
When the Blue Jays signed Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15 million deal, the reactions weren’t great.

Kiner-Falefa had never posted a wRC+ above 100 in any of his six prior seasons and while his defence was great in years prior, his career-best fWAR of 1.6 in 2022 declined to 0.6 in 2023. So why did the Blue Jays sign a utility player to a $15 million deal, when players like Gio Urshela, Tim Anderson, and Amed Rosario signed for a combined $500,000 less than Kiner-Falefa?

https://twitter.com/Ryley_L_D/status/1800271981734252621

Well, it’s because Kiner-Falefa is good.

This season, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is slashing .275/.319/.394 with four homers in 209 plate appearances for what looks to be a career-best season with the bat, a 105 wRC+. On top of that, his 1.3 fWAR accumulated this season is already his third-best season and there’s still a whole lot of season left. According to Joan Birenbaum of TheScore, Kiner-Falefa is on pace for 3.3 fWAR.

https://twitter.com/birenball/status/1800170594941780232

The bat is average at best, there’s no disputing that. He’s only four homers away from matching his career-high, but hitting double-digit home runs is a possibility. On top of that, he’s had not just one, but two clutch hits when the Blue Jays really needed it.

https://twitter.com/KeeganMatheson/status/1798530860121227464

With that being said, the glove alone has helped Kiner-Falefa blow by expectations. At second base, the 29-year-old has 3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 2 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 210.2 innings played at the keystone. In 18 innings at short, Kiner-Falefa has 2 DRS and 1 OAA, which is impressive considering it’s a counting stat.

However, his best position by far this season has been third base. In 256 innings at the hot corner, he has accumulated 5 DRS and 2 OAA, along with a 3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating, and if he were to play 150 games at the position, his UZR would be 15.3 if this pace continues.

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1799932130241175790

The bat has been slightly above average, but Kiner-Falefa’s ability to defend at three infield positions has greatly helped this team save runs.
<h2>For funsies, let’s compare him to who he replaced</h2>
When the Blue Jays acquired Matt Chapman from the Oakland Athletics prior to the 2022 season, there were some big expectations for the slugging third baseman who had won the platinum glove twice.

In two seasons with the Jays, Chapman slashed .234/.327/.429 with 44 home runs in 1202 plate appearances for a 114 wRC+, winning the Gold Glove in the 2023 season for third base. The Jays extended a qualifying offer, which he declined and eventually signed with the Bay-area San Francisco Giants.

This season, the 31-year-old is slashing .240/.317/.407 with eight homers in 274 plate appearances, giving him a 111 wRC+ and a 1.7 fWAR. Defensively, he has accumulated 5 DRS and 0 AA in 559.2 innings at the hot corner, along with a 2 UZR, which would be 3.3 over 150 games.

https://twitter.com/SFGiants/status/1795638655597547625

Defensively, it’s safe to say that Kiner-Falefa has been better than his replacement, while his bat trails behind Chapman’s, especially in the power category. However, Chapman signed to a three-year, $54 million deal with opt-outs after the 2024 and 2025 season, with a mutual option for the 2027 season. Compared to Kiner-Falefa’s 1.3 fWAR and 105 wRC+, Kiner-Falefa is on a much better contract.

Kiner-Falefa may regress as the season goes along, he’s been a below average hitter throughout his career. However, after just two months into the season, a hated signing has turned into one of the most beloved players among fans.

<hr />

As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Ryley_L_D.

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