The Toronto Blue Jays have a lot going on at the moment.

On the heels of an offseason where they have yet to land a top free agent (Jeff Hoffman aside for those who want to count him), the club is currently knee-deep in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes while also being tethered to numerous free agents, at least in the eyes of journalists far and wide, most of whom are located south of the border. It’s been that type of offseason, where it seems like every media personality out there is trying to either one-up each other with ‘insider info’ or being first on the scene, or is throwing out insane narratives to cause a stir online, like a drunk uncle who just wants to talk about politics at the dinner table. There’s also the blatant ‘an agent told me some tidbits here’ articles that can be sniffed out a mile away, adding to the chaos of what one should believe versus not.

One of the narratives that gained a lot of steam last night was the possibility of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being traded this offseason. He and the Blue Jays are currently embroiled in contract negotiations to try to keep the slugger in Toronto past the 2025 season.

Some of the stories have the New York Mets putting together a trade package for the first baseman, as the Mets are currently in a stalemate with their free-agent slugger Pete Alonso. At the same time, other sites continue to flip-flop between whether the Blue Jays are open to moving their star player. No clear resolution or consensus, just throwing jello at the wall and seeing what sticks.

A particular article from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon mentions that teams interested in Guerrero and that have checked in on his availability are reporting that the ask for his services rivals the San Diego/New York deal for Juan Soto back in 2023. Which if true, makes sense to some point, but that doesn’t mean the Jays are willing to trade him at the moment, even if they acquire a free agent like Alonso.

That being said, the Blue Jays have a lot of balls currently in the air if you believe every tidbit that is coming from social media, as the Jays are reportedly interested in Alonso and have an offer out for Alex Bregman, a narrative that the front office kind of dug themselves into with the ‘cast a wide net’ approach in free agency. But it got so out of hand last night that Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith had to come out of the woodwork to tell the world what really shouldn’t need to be said – the Blue Jays are not keen on trading Guerrero at this time. Credit also to Bob Nightengale with USA Today, who echoed Nicholson-Smith’s statements.

The validity of what Nicholson-Smith is saying amongst the smorgasbord of hot stove rumours plays more into the narrative of what likely is going on behind the scenes. Obviously we are not privy to these conversations between team and player outside of Guerrero’s comments on a podcast last month but the Blue Jays don’t need to move Guerrero now. It would go against everything they were preaching before the offseason; a move that could spell disaster for job security for some front office folks.

After a dismal 2024 campaign, Ross Atkins got in front of the media (after learning he would stay at the helm) and preached through his word salad of a press conference that the team was going to be competitive in 2025. And while the club has at least attempted to make some moves – Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, etc. – with little results outside of Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, and trading for Andres Giminez, trading Guerrero goes against everything the club was saying before the offseason began.

For a general manager who is on the hot seat to compete and find some sort of success in 2025, trading the franchise star doesn’t make a ton of sense even if the pivot is to add Alonso, which at this point is not guaranteed. Even so, adding Alonso and teaming him up with Guerrero, whether that be a 1B/DH platoon or the Jays move Vladdy across the diamond to third base, gives the Jays a whole lot more power than they had last season, a weakness on the roster that is still needing to be addressed.

Trading Guerrero signals more of a rebuilding approach for the Blue Jays. Atkins can’t afford to rebuild, he likely (and rightfully so) would lose his job after failing to create a winning team after his first kick at the can and then four to six years of zero postseason wins. It’s not for a lack of trying with the free agency additions but the success just isn’t there and major red flags should be waved if Atkins keeps his job and sells off the team again. And even for those who dislike the front office right now, do you also have faith that he can net the best return for Guerrero right now?

To be my own devil’s advocate for those of you who want to see Guerrero traded – there is some risk involved with not moving him this winter.

You can see a Josh Donaldson 2.0 situation emerge where the Jays and Guerrero can’t find a way to agree on an extension, the Jays suck in 2025 and are selling at the deadline, and Guerrero tanks his value whether it be due to injury or performance and leaves for pennies on the dollar or on the heels of draft pick compensation in the winter. It’s a scenario that could play out, especially if the Jays can’t lock down their star player before mid-February and they fail to gain any traction with remaining free agents before the 2025 campaign rolls around. They were in the basement of the AL East last season and they could rightfully move back in this year as well.

There is the flip side that no deal is found, the Jays suck, Guerrero plays well, and the club gets a monster haul for him at the deadline if they waive the white flag, but these specific hypotheticals still all favour the idea of keeping Guerrero around now instead of moving him before the season begins. Risk and reward with the trade deadline with the added bonus of giving it the old college try to start the year.

The club could move him this offseason and try and use the return of players to still be competitive while mixing in some free-agent signings but that idea has so many moving parts that I don’t think the Jays front office can pull it off.

If the Jays are trading Guerrero, it’s the signal of a rebuild in my opinion – plain and simple. Sure, you can make different scenarios with different teams on different trade packages Toronto could get from interested teams and combine those with remaining free agents the club could sign but that doesn’t seem too likely, especially if the Jays trade their franchise star and continue to deplete what little contract control they have left on the team. Free agent players want money and a way to win a World Series and the Jays would be a hard sell for the likes of Alonso, Bregman, or Anthony Santander (barring an insane overpay) if the club moves Guerrero now.

What would make all these silly narratives go away sooner rather than later is if the Blue Jays can get Guerrero signed to a long-term contract well before his self-imposed mid-February deadline.

Not only does it provide some roster security beyond the next few seasons, but the Jays are also signalling to the world that this is the guy they are building the team around, come in and help bring a World Series back to Canada. Whether or not that works in the Jays’ favour is undetermined but this team is better with Guerrero on it. Also, I think the Rogers Centre would be torn down by the fans if he ends up with an AL East rival next winter, another narrative to throw on the pile.

Ultimately, trading Guerrero right now makes zero sense. The Jays could net a hefty return from the right team but that would just show the league that Toronto is throwing in the towel, packing their bags, and going back home. You might as well trade the rest of the veteran guys at that point, fire Atkins (which some of you may prefer this scenario if this is an outcome), and start rebuilding once again. I don’t see a situation where the Jays move their best player and try to fill the remaining gaps with whatever the trade coming back is and some free agent help, at least in terms of a complete success rate.

The idea of Guerrero being traded is nonsense, it’s a waste of the Mets’ time (and any other team for that matter) to put together any sort of trade package for him now, and if Ross Atkins wants to keep his job and turn things around, keeping the Montreal-born slugger around for the long term will go a long way to backing the competitive narrative he fumbled out during his press conference last October.

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