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It’s time for the Blue Jays to seriously consider a rebuild
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Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Ryley Delaney
Dec 31, 2024, 07:00 ESTUpdated: Dec 31, 2024, 06:42 EST
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This off-season is getting to the point where the Toronto Blue Jays have to seriously consider a rebuild.
For what feels like the 15th time in the past two off-seasons, the Blue Jays missed out on a top free agent. This time, it was Corbin Burnes, despite offering him more money than the team he signed with, the Arizona Diamondbacks. This comes after losing out on Shohei Ohtani, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernández, Shohei Ohtani, and likely many other players over the past two seasons.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that this team doesn’t really have a future, as they can’t land free agents, have a shallow farm system, and only have a handful of players under contract after the 2026 season. All of those reasons combine to make the mess the Jays are currently in.

The free agent dilemma 

One reason why free agents could be cautious about signing with the Jays is because both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have contracts expiring at the end of the season. In fact, most contracts are off the books following the 2026 season, as only Yariel Rodríguez, Andrés Giménez, and José Berríos (potentially) are under contract after, with a handful of players headlined by Ernie Clement and Alek Manoah with their arbitration years extending this far.
Any player wanting to sign a long-term deal, such as Soto, Ohtani, Hernández and maybe even Anthony Santander can see that the team doesn’t have a direction for the future, at least on paper. Sure, Guerrero Jr. may want to stay in Toronto, something Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith believes, but unless the front office pays up, we’re stuck in this annoying holding pattern.
It’s going to be hard to convince any free agent that the Jays are going to be good for the foreseeable future with Guerrero Jr. and Bichette’s contract situation looming over the organization. In turn, the Jays are going to have another poor season like their 74-88 season in 2024. If the Jays can’t get the two players to sign long-term, they risk trading them at the deadline for a lesser package – or worse, seeing them walk in free agency with a measly pick in return.

The lack of high-potential prospects

As a prospect writer, it’s sort of difficult to describe the Blue Jays’ farm system. It isn’t bad (certainly not the worst in the league), but it’s undoubtedly in the bottom 10, this isn’t to say it’s good either. There are quite a few prospects in the organization that could become good MLB players and a lot of them are MLB-ready, think Addison Barger, Orelvis Martínez, Leo Jiménez, Jake Bloss, etc.
What they do lack though, is high-potential prospects that rank in the top half of the top 100. In fact, the only top 100 prospect in MLB Pipeline’s top 100 is Trey Yesavage, who ranks 94th overall. Both Martínez and Ricky Tiedemann ranked on the list to begin last season, but a PED suspension and Tommy John surgery knocked them off. Those two are fringe top 100 prospects, alongside shortstop Arjun Nimmala who needs to have a big season in High-A.
The failure to develop prospects by this front office is well documented. Looking at the front office’s early drafts, you see Bo Bichette and Nate Pearson, and that’s really it. The only first-round pick they’ve ever hit on is Alek Manoah in 2019, and even then he’s struggled with health and poor performance the past two seasons. You could make an argument rushing him to the big leagues played a part in that.
One thing they’ve had success doing is moving those prospects in trades for good packages. Austin Martin was selected fifth overall in the 2020 draft and he was traded alongside Simeon Woods Richardson for José Berríos. Gunnar Hoglund, their 2021 first-round pick, was traded to the Athletics alongside three other prospects for Matt Chapman. It’s hard to argue they lost either trade.
However, their farm system is barren, and it’s something that top free agents care about. It played a factor in both Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto’s decisions, albeit the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets were their projected destinations.
Another impact is that they can’t rely on the farm system to make those trades to improve the holes on the team. Sure, they can make a trade like the Andrés Giménez one, but you’re giving up a great, controllable hitter in Spencer Horwitz in the process.

Can’t sign free agents, can’t trade prospects, and won’t extend Guerrero Jr., so what’s next?

There are two paths the Jays can take before Spring Training starts. They can either extend Guerrero Jr. and try to be competitive next season, which is entirely possible if Bichette plays better and if they add a bat like Anthony Santander. This could help their pursuit of free agents next off-season
The other pathway is sadder, as they could officially kick off the rebuild by trading Guerrero Jr. His value may never be higher than it is right now, as he has a full season of team control, along with the fact his hypothetical new team could extend him before free agency. Even though he’s in his final season, he’ll net the Blue Jays a haul.
On the flip side, the Blue Jays should wait and see how Bichette plays next season, regardless if they trade Guerrero Jr. or keep him. After a disastrous 2024 season, his trade value has never been lower and if he plays to his usual pre-2024 standards, he’ll net the Jays a greater haul than he would right now.
Another factor that could play into the Blue Jays’ hands is that starting pitching hasn’t come cheap this off-season, both in terms of signing free agents and acquiring them through trades. Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, and Kevin Gausman may not be in their arbitration years, but they all have at least a full season on their contract, and moving one or even all three of them could bolster the Blue Jays farm system.
If the Jays were to trade Guerrero Jr., Bichette, and their starters, the 2025 team would be bad, like one of the worst teams in the league bad. However, starting the rebuild now would bolster the farm system better than it would at the trade deadline, and how it’s going right now, it appears the rebuild is on the horizon anyway.
As always, you can follow me on Bluesky @ryleydelaney.bsky.social.

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