Jeff Passan on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s next contract: “There will not be a first baseman who’s getting a $300+ million contract”

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Though it took him a little while to get going, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season.
He came into the month of May with an on-base plus slugging percentage of .678 and a solid month at the plate brought that number up to .787 at the beginning of June. Since then, Vladdy has locked in and slashed a .337/.380/.654 line. His OPS on the season is up to .906, which ranks 12th in the Major Leagues.
With the trade deadline passed and the team nowhere close to a playoff spot, the focus around the Blue Jays has shifted to next season and beyond. A major topic leading into 2025 will be the contract status of Guerrero Jr., as the star first baseman is eligible to reach free agency after next season.
ESPN Insider Jeff Passan did an interview with Jeff Blair and Kevin Barker on Sportsnet 590 on Friday and discussed what Guerrero Jr.’s next contract might look like. Passan said that a first baseman won’t be able to command over $300 million on a contract and that the Blue Jays could look to what New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso earns in free agency this winter as a blueprint for how to handle Vladdy.
Kevin Barker: Should the Blue Jays give Vladdy a blank cheque?Jeff Passan: No. You don’t give a first baseman a blank cheque.I would be very curious to see what Pete Alonso gets in free agency this off-season. I think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a better player than Pete Alonso, but the difference between the two isn’t all that great, right?I wodner, is that going to inform the Blue Jays what they can pay Vladdy? Or are they going to go to him and say, ‘You’re the guy we want to build around and we’re going to pay you like a franchise player.’Jeff Blair: We’ve been playing this game for a while now. Looking at first basemen, you have Bryce Harper at $330 million, you’ve got Freddie Freeman with the highest annual salary at around $27-28 million. Is there some sort of structure built in that?Jeff Passan: Bryce Harper got the $330 million as an outfielder. He’s a first baseman now, but there will not be a first baseman who’s getting a $300+ million contract. Period. This game is too value-oriented at this point.
Freeman joined the Los Angeles Dodgers on a six-year, $162 million contract after winning the World Series in 2021 with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves acquired Matt Olson from the Oakland A’s to replace Freeman at first base and he wound up inking an eight-year, $168 million extension. Alonso, who has 108 home runs and an OPS of .830 over his past three seasons and turns 30 in December, will look for a similar contract this winter.
Guerrero Jr. spoke with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand at the All-Star Game in Texas back in July and said that he’s interested in signing long-term with Toronto but that he and the Blue Jays are nowhere close when it comes to contract negotiations.
“Like I’ve mentioned before, I control what I can control,” Guerrero said through an interpreter. “I’m just trying to go out there and give my 100 percent and whatever happens after that, I can’t control it.”Guerrero and the Blue Jays have discussed a potential extension, but sources said the two sides were not particularly close to getting a deal done. Guerrero said he hopes to remain with the only club for which he has ever played, but he knows that the possibility of a trade will continue to exist.“I would love to be in Toronto,” Guerrero said. “My family loves Toronto, my kids love Toronto, but at the end of the day, it’s a business. We all need to understand that, so whatever happens happens. Definitely, I would like to stay there.”
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