Recent articles from Mitch Bannon

Last week, I broke down the comparable trades for Yusei Kikuchi. This week, I’m looking at the Blue Jays No. 2 trade asset at this year’s deadline: catcher Danny Jansen. Unfortunately, Jansen’s market is way more complicated. The comps aren’t quite as clear, as Jansen is having a pretty down season after pretty stellar runs in 2022 and 2023. And, the nature of trading a catcher is far different than a rental pitcher. But, I did my best to find three trade outlines that can inform the type of value Jansen will bring back, if the Jays even choose to deal him: Deals involving Christian Vazquez, Yan Gomes, and Sandy Leon were the three best comps for a Jansen trade I found over the past three deadlines. All three catchers were pending free agents at the time. Using fielding run value (from Savant) plus OPS and fWAR (from FanGraphs), here’s a breakdown of the similaritiesbetween these players and Jansen, before I go into the specific trades: 2022: Christian Vazquez traded from Red Sox to Astros Return: INF/OF Enmanuel Valdez (Astros No. 29 prospect per MLB Pipeline at the time) and OF Wilyer Abreu (No. 30) This is kind of the ‘best case scenario’ I see for a Jansen trade. While neither Valdez nor Abreu were particularly high ranked in the Astros system at the time of the deal, both were bets that paid off. The pair each took a step forward in 2023 and have cracked the Red Sox MLB roster. Abreu, in particular, looks like a legit Big-League contributor, with an .811 OPS and 10 homers in his first 104 MLB games. But, solely based off prospect rankings, this wasn’t the great deal it turned into at the time. Plus, Vazquez was having a far better pre-deadline season than Jansen currently is. But, with Jansen’s history of success, I’d expect the Jays can probably snag a comparable deal to this Vazquez return if a team decides they truly want Jansen. 2022: Sandy Leon traded from Guardians to Twins Return: RP Ian Hamilton Let me make this clear, Danny Jansen is way more valuable than Sandy Leon was in 2022. If the Jays are going to move Jansen, it’s because a team sees him as a legit catcher and potentially DH option — not the backup Leon was. But, the fact that this is one of the few even close to comparable trades I found in the last five years show how few pending free agent catchers of consequence get moved at the deadline. I’d have to assume Jansen would fetch more than Leon given track records, but something involving a borderline MLB reliever like Hamilton (who’s turned into a legit bullpen option) plus a ranked prospect could be more in line with a Jansen return. 2021: Yan Gomes traded with 2B Josh Harrison from Nationals to Athletics Return: C Drew Millas (No. 28), RHP Seth Shuman (unranked), RHP Richard Guasch (unranked) Yan Gomes was actually having a great season prior to this swap. And, Josh Harrison was playing great for the Nats prior to this trade (.800 OPS in 90 games), so it&#8217;s important to note the increased value his inclusion in this deal brought back. But, like the Astros/Red Sox trade I outlined above, the return still seems underwhelming. None of the three prospects Washington got back for Gomes and Harrison were particularly highly regarded at the time, and all three are now unranked in the Nats’ system, per Pipeline. Obviously, all prospects are a risk, but this kind of return would also be underwhelming for Jansen. Jansen Trade Comp Takeaways If the Jays can fetch an offer close to that the Red Sox got for Vazquez in 2022, pull the trigger. But if they’re closer to the Leon or Gomes hauls, a deal makes little sense. I think the underwhelming nature of all of these comparable trades comes back to the position. Catchers of significance so rarely get moved at trade deadlines because they’re responsible for so much more than just catching baseballs and hitting them. They have to manage a pitching staff, learn tendencies, and help build out gameplans. Working a backstop in during the middle of a playoff push is an incredibly hard thing to do. So, teams are afraid of sending out massive hauls of prospects for catchers in July. After looking back at the recent history of catcher trades, I think holding on to Jansen and giving him a qualifying offer is the best route for Toronto this season. Either they get a compensatory pick if Jansen leaves in the offseason, they re-sign him to a long-term deal, or Jansen takes the QO and returns for one year to re-build his value. Those three avenues are all better results for Toronto than most of the comparable trades I outlined above.

Recent articles from Mitch Bannon

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