As Bo Bichette enters the final year of his three-year, $33.6-million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, there’s much for the shortstop to prove.
2024 was a <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-2024-player-review-a-lost-season-for-shortstop-bo-bichette">rough year</a> for him, as he missed half of the season with various injuries and posted career-low numbers at the plate when he was on the field. Suiting up in 81 games, Bichette slashed .225/.277/.322 with four home runs, 31 RBIs, and posted a .598 OPS and a 71 OPS+ while committing seven errors at shortstop to the tune of a .971 fielding percentage. It was a far cry from his past few seasons where he led the AL in hits (2021 and 2022) and collected two All-Star nominations at the top of the Blue Jays lineup. 
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 This season represents a chance to make a comeback and prove himself again before he enters free agency.
<h2>Looking at the projections for the Bichette in 2025</h2>
While the idea of trading Bichette this winter has <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/top-stories-of-2024-no-3-the-blue-jays-are-entertaining-trade-offers-for-star-shortstop-bo-bichette">floated around</a>, with his trade value so low at the moment, it may make more sense for the Jays to deal him closer to the trade deadline instead if the two sides don&#8217;t see an extension in the cards. This idea would depend on the team’s performance, as they won&#8217;t move him if they are pushing for the postseason. However, if the team struggles and is sitting in the basement of the AL East, expect a similar scenario to last summer in how they <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/the-toronto-blue-jays-nailed-the-yusei-kikuchi-trade-return-from-the-houston-astros">traded their expiring contracts</a> at the deadline since the team was playing poorly.
The question remains then: Can Bichette improve upon last season enough to make a big impact with the Jays and/or have enough value to be dealt in a big trade?
Fortunately for the team, the 2025 stat projections seem to think so.
Stat projections are by no means a perfect science, but by taking into account a player’s past year performances (with recent seasons valued more), injury history, and some advanced metrics, they can give fans a good idea of what they could expect to see.
One of the most popular projection systems is <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/projection-systems/steamer">Steamer</a>. It sits in the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bo-bichette/19612/stats?position=SS">middle ground</a> of other projections on Bichette and is estimating him to have a .278/.324/.441 slash line, a drastic improvement over his 2024 numbers.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Here&#39;s a side view of Bo Bichette&#39;s home run.
Kevin Kiermaier looks like a Jack In The Box toy. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> <a href="https://t.co/FL1Mzrtoo8">pic.twitter.com/FL1Mzrtoo8</a>
&mdash; Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) <a href="https://twitter.com/KeeganMatheson/status/1777850179627995333?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
A large reason for this is likely due to the signing of Anthony Santander. Having an extra power bat in the lineup allows Bichette to stay within himself and not chase the long ball. This can be seen in his projected walk rate of 5.9%, lower than only his breakout 2019 rookie season when it was 6.6%. A large part of Bichette’s game is seeing the ball well and getting on base at a high rate. The projected .319 BABIP is lower than his other years outside of last season but the 118 wRC+ Steamer is projecting would be a welcome addition to the lineup and somewhat of a return to form, as his wRC+ values have mostly floated between the 120 to 130 mark outside of his rookie campaign and last year&#8217;s dismal performance at the plate. Steamer also projects a 3.7 fWAR for the shortstop. 
There’s no downside to Bichette meeting these projections. If he plays well and so does the team, they can keep him until the end of the year for a potential playoff push. If he plays well but the team doesn’t, then they can trade him at the deadline to a contender and get something for him that is more than the draft pick compensation the team would receive when he rejects the qualifying offer from the club in the winter (barring an extension).
Real problems would begin should Bichette not come close to his projections and replicate his 2024 numbers. That would tank his trade value and hurt the team’s performance, meaning it would make more sense to simply trade him this offseason. 
The whole situation essentially turns into a gamble. A side of the coin will be picked based on how much the front office believes in these projections and whether Bichette can meet them, with fans hoping last season was just a &#8216;blip on the radar&#8217; and not the forward projection. A return to his hit king ways would go a long way for the Jays next season and their quest to remain competitive, especially if he can stay healthy. 
It’s just too bad that predicting the future is infinitely more difficult than reading numbers on a spreadsheet…
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As Bo Bichette enters the final year of his three-year, $33.6-million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, there’s much for the shortstop to prove.

2024 was a <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-2024-player-review-a-lost-season-for-shortstop-bo-bichette">rough year</a> for him, as he missed half of the season with various injuries and posted career-low numbers at the plate when he was on the field. Suiting up in 81 games, Bichette slashed .225/.277/.322 with four home runs, 31 RBIs, and posted a .598 OPS and a 71 OPS+ while committing seven errors at shortstop to the tune of a .971 fielding percentage. It was a far cry from his past few seasons where he led the AL in hits (2021 and 2022) and collected two All-Star nominations at the top of the Blue Jays lineup. 
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 This season represents a chance to make a comeback and prove himself again before he enters free agency.
<h2>Looking at the projections for the Bichette in 2025</h2>
While the idea of trading Bichette this winter has <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/top-stories-of-2024-no-3-the-blue-jays-are-entertaining-trade-offers-for-star-shortstop-bo-bichette">floated around</a>, with his trade value so low at the moment, it may make more sense for the Jays to deal him closer to the trade deadline instead if the two sides don't see an extension in the cards. This idea would depend on the team’s performance, as they won't move him if they are pushing for the postseason. However, if the team struggles and is sitting in the basement of the AL East, expect a similar scenario to last summer in how they <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/the-toronto-blue-jays-nailed-the-yusei-kikuchi-trade-return-from-the-houston-astros">traded their expiring contracts</a> at the deadline since the team was playing poorly.

The question remains then: Can Bichette improve upon last season enough to make a big impact with the Jays and/or have enough value to be dealt in a big trade?

Fortunately for the team, the 2025 stat projections seem to think so.

Stat projections are by no means a perfect science, but by taking into account a player’s past year performances (with recent seasons valued more), injury history, and some advanced metrics, they can give fans a good idea of what they could expect to see.

One of the most popular projection systems is <a href="https://www.mlb.com/glossary/projection-systems/steamer">Steamer</a>. It sits in the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bo-bichette/19612/stats?position=SS">middle ground</a> of other projections on Bichette and is estimating him to have a .278/.324/.441 slash line, a drastic improvement over his 2024 numbers.

https://twitter.com/KeeganMatheson/status/1777850179627995333

A large reason for this is likely due to the signing of Anthony Santander. Having an extra power bat in the lineup allows Bichette to stay within himself and not chase the long ball. This can be seen in his projected walk rate of 5.9%, lower than only his breakout 2019 rookie season when it was 6.6%. A large part of Bichette’s game is seeing the ball well and getting on base at a high rate. The projected .319 BABIP is lower than his other years outside of last season but the 118 wRC+ Steamer is projecting would be a welcome addition to the lineup and somewhat of a return to form, as his wRC+ values have mostly floated between the 120 to 130 mark outside of his rookie campaign and last year's dismal performance at the plate. Steamer also projects a 3.7 fWAR for the shortstop. 

There’s no downside to Bichette meeting these projections. If he plays well and so does the team, they can keep him until the end of the year for a potential playoff push. If he plays well but the team doesn’t, then they can trade him at the deadline to a contender and get something for him that is more than the draft pick compensation the team would receive when he rejects the qualifying offer from the club in the winter (barring an extension).

Real problems would begin should Bichette not come close to his projections and replicate his 2024 numbers. That would tank his trade value and hurt the team’s performance, meaning it would make more sense to simply trade him this offseason. 

The whole situation essentially turns into a gamble. A side of the coin will be picked based on how much the front office believes in these projections and whether Bichette can meet them, with fans hoping last season was just a 'blip on the radar' and not the forward projection. A return to his hit king ways would go a long way for the Jays next season and their quest to remain competitive, especially if he can stay healthy. 

It’s just too bad that predicting the future is infinitely more difficult than reading numbers on a spreadsheet…

<hr />

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Looking at how Bo Bichette can bounce back for the Blue Jays in 2025

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