Looking at the Blue Jays rotation in 2026 with and without Shane Bieber
Photo credit: © Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
Aug 7, 2025, 16:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 7, 2025, 15:47 EDT
Looking ahead to the 2025-26 off-season, it will be an interesting one for the Toronto Blue Jays.
There’s still a lot of baseball to be played in 2025, but the Blue Jays starting pitching is already one area of need. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are set to become free agents at the end of the season, while Kevin Gausman’s contract ends after the 2026 season, and José Berríos can opt out of his contract after the 2026 season.
At the trade deadline, the Blue Jays sent one of their better pitching prospects, Khal Stephen, to the Cleveland Guardians for 2020 American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. The right-handed pitcher threw just 12 innings last season before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery.
He made a rehab start on August 3 with the Buffalo Bisons, striking out six and allowing two earned runs in five innings. It appears he could make his Blue Jay debut by the end of August, which would be a massive help to the pitching staff.
While the playoffs are yet to be determined, if Bieber pitches well in the coming months, he can opt out of his contract and become a free agent. If he doesn’t opt out, say he struggles upon his return, Bieber will earn $16 million in 2026.
The question is, what does the Blue Jays’ 2026 rotation look like with and without Bieber in it?
The rotation with Bieber in it
There’s a possibility that if Bieber struggles upon his return, he’ll trigger his player option, meaning he’ll be a Blue Jay in 2026. Even if Bieber struggles, the Blue Jays would get a potential ace, because when he’s healthy, Bieber is one of the best pitchers in the big leagues.
In his 2020 season, the year he won the American League Cy Young, Bieber finished with a 1.63 ERA and 2.07 FIP in 77.1 innings pitched, with a 41.1 K% and 7.1 BB%. Bieber pitched only 96.2 innings in 2021, finishing with a 3.17 ERA and 3.03 FIP in 16 starts, but returned to form in 2022, posting a 2.88 ERA and 2.87 FIP in 200 innings pitched.
The right-handed pitcher only started 21 games in 2023, before missing almost the entirety of the 2024 season because of Tommy John surgery. Who knows how he’ll perform when he returns to the big leagues, but if he activates his player option, he’ll certainly be in the Blue Jays rotation.
Of course, there is a chance that the Blue Jays re-sign Chris Bassitt, but if not, their top three pitchers in the rotation would be Bieber, Gausman, and Berríos. It’s not a matter of if, but when Trey Yesavage makes the big leagues, and he can slot into the back-end of the Jays rotation. There’s also Alek Manoah to consider, as the 2022 Cy Young nominee is also on the path back from Tommy John surgery. Bowden Francis and Eric Lauer are two other options.
Barring any signings, the Blue Jays’ rotation could look something like this:
SP1: Bieber
SP2: Gausman
SP3: Berríos
SP4: Manoah
SP5: Yesavage/Lauer/Bassitt/Francis
Even if Bieber doesn’t opt in to the 2026 season, there’s a possibility that Bieber re-signs after hitting free agency.
A rotation without Bieber
If the Blue Jays can’t re-sign Bieber, expect them to go big game hunting in free agency, something they have done since the 2019-20 off-season. Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Michael King, Steven Matz, Bassitt and Ranger Suárez are just a handful of starting pitchers who could be available five days after the World Series is handed out. It would not be surprising if they sign a starter in the coming free agency.
Assuming they sign no one for the rotation, they still have enough depth to figure something out. Guasman and Berríos remain in the rotation, but depending on how Manoah performs once returning from Tommy John surgery, that could be another solid third option. Yesavage will likely make his big league debut at some point next season, and Eric Lauer has another season of arbitration.
On top of Yesavage, Adam Macko, Jake Bloss, Ricky Tiedeman, and Lázaro Estrada could all be options for the rotation in 2026, whether or not they sign Bieber or another starter. One other option for the Jays could be to stretch out Louis Varland, as his stuff is good enough to play out of the rotation, even if he’s struggled in that role before moving to the bullpen full-time in 2025.
While signing Bieber or another ace would be incredibly beneficial for the Blue Jays heading into the 2026 season, they have plenty of depth and potential in the farm system.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.