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Looking at the fit for RHP Jack Flaherty into the Blue Jays rotation
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Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Veronica Chung
Jan 7, 2025, 09:00 ESTUpdated: Jan 7, 2025, 06:59 EST
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As more free-agent pitchers continue to find their new homes this winter, the number of coveted starters has dwindled at a rapid pace. Now, one of the better starters available in the market is Japanese rookie sensation Roki Sasaki – who is available through the international posting system – and former Los Angeles Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty. Flaherty, who has spent most of his career with the St. Louis Cardinals before stints in Baltimore, Detroit, and L.A., is a free agent for the second time in his career. 
The Athletic recently reported that Flaherty may be seeking a contract that would give him at least five years — this comes after the 29-year-old pitcher recorded a 3.17 earned-run average (ERA) and 3.2 wins above replacement (WAR) the past season. 
While many contenders can always use another arm to add to their rotation, the Toronto Blue Jays are also in the market to upgrade their pitching as their division rivals boosted their rotation strength. The club has been tied to numerous starters this winter, with the club missing out on Corbin Burnes before he chose to sign in the desert for less money. The Jays have recently been tied to Flaherty, which isn’t out of the norm for an organization that casts a wide net in free agency. 
So, the question now becomes whether the Blue Jays can find a fit with Flaherty and if they are willing to gamble some salary space on the veteran starter. 

Jack Flaherty’s Strengths

The Burbank-born pitcher fully bounced back last season, making 28 starts and putting 162 innings under his belt split between the Tigers and Dodgers. This was the second-highest number of innings pitched since the 2019 season (196 1/3) and the fourth campaign where he has pitched more than 100+ innings. 
By and large, the right-hander has been a reliable starter throughout his seven-year tenure in the majors. His 2019 season has been the best in terms of record so far, where he led the NL with a 0.968 WHIP and a 6.2 H/9, but his 2024 stat lines have been similar In many aspects. In 2024, Flaherty posted a 3.47 FIP and a 1.068 WHIP while striking out opposing hitters at a 10.8 K/9 clip and limiting the free passes to just a 2.1 BB/9. 
Another interesting aspect of Flaherty’s 2024 season is that left-handed batters amassed a lower slash line overall against his pitching. Left-handed batters posted a ..215/.259/.346 slash line while right-handed batters authored a .233 BA .290 OBP and .440 SLG, with RHB’s gaining four more homers on the former Cardinal pitcher. This is likely in part due to his excellent offspeed offerings, with his knuckle curve producing a +12 run value last season while his fastball was not far behind at +5. His slider mixed in well to keep hitters off balance but got hit hard at times but it was his curveball that generated a 43.6% whiff rate and held opponents to a .219 SLG and a .173 wOBA.
Based on his stellar performance in 2024, FanGraphs is projecting Flaherty to pitch 170 innings with a 3.84 ERA and a .296 BABIP. If the projections play out for the 29-year-old in 2025, he could help contenders soar into the playoffs and provide the wins any team needs to edge out their opponents. He turned a one-year prove-it deal with the Tigers/Dodgers this past year into a long-term contract this winter.

Jack Flaherty’s Weaknesses

On the flip side, Flaherty has also had his share of ups and downs with four different teams in the major league.
In 2023, he was sitting at a 4.43 ERA with St. Louis before being moved at the trade deadline to the Orioles, where he struggled to a 1.673 WHIP and saw his H9/9 balloon to 1.8 within his nine appearances, with Baltimore eventually moving him to the bullpen to finish the season. Last season, he started off a bit slow with Detroit (16 earned runs with a 4.91 ERA through five starts) but turned things around quickly to finish with a 2.21 ERA and a 2.92 FIP through his next 13 starts before being surprisingly traded. 
Free passes have been an issue for Flaherty in the past – a 5.5 and 4.1 BB/9 in 2022 and 2023 respectively – but last season he found more success with his command, turning that down to a 2.1 BB/9 mark. He found more success in Detroit (1.6 BB/9) versus Los Angeles (3.1 BB/9) but it was still a positive move forward and also a reminder of what is possible if things revert back to his older form.
Flaherty has also had some injury concerns in 2021 and 2022 with his shoulder but since then, he has surpassed 28 appearances per season. Teams did question his back at the trade deadline last year as well, so there is some injury risk (so much so that the Yankees nixed a deal after looking at his medical records last summer) so the injury risk is there. 

Examining the fit with the Blue Jays

In conclusion, Flaherty has some volatility when it comes to long-term stability and outlook but could be a great piece to add to the rotation if he can continue his 2024 form. At the same time, the market is working in the Californian starter’s favour as it thinned out quickly with a series of signings before and after the holidays. 
As aces like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes have found their new teams and are reaping the rewards, Flaherty has now become one of the best remaining starting pitchers. Compared to older veterans like Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the California native has brighter potential and a higher ceiling for any team looking for a dependable pitcher in their rotation for a longer-term deal. His main competition will be those looking to sign Sasaki, with his deal likely coming sometime after the January 15th international period, so the right-hander may wait until he is off the board to see where teams look to pivot.  If there is another advantage Flaherty offers, it’s the fact that he doesn’t have a qualifying offer that other teams have to worry about, so the signing team is not tied to draft pick compensation. 
For the Blue Jays front office that has yet to sign a big name this winter, Flaherty is one pitcher who helps with the ‘contend now’ picture but could be a contract that fades quickly if he struggles to stay healthy or he can’t find his 2024 form. There is some risk to signing Flaherty to a long-term deal (think four to five years) but there is some solid metrics and stat lines that support taking a chance if the Jays are looking for someone on the books past the 2026 rotation with experience. 
Toronto’s front office has prided itself on making practical decisions in both free agency and trades even though some deals haven’t quite paid off as well as others. Given this office’s approaches, Flaherty wouldn’t usually be at the top of their priority list for the offseason. Yet, the Blue Jays are caught in a rough spot as they try to survive in the hyper-competitive American League East division.
The choice for improvement is no longer a luxury; it’s now a requirement to compete against the rest of the league that’s hungry to get into the playoffs. It’s mostly likely that the Blue Jays will have to go down to the wire to sign Jack Flaherty this winter if Ross Atkins wants to add another arm to the rotation.

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