There are just nine <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> games left this season, so it’s time to talk clinching scenarios.

As it stands, the Blue Jays haven’t even officially clinched a postseason position, but that could change in the near future. With the best record in the American League, there’s a strong possibility that they earn home-field advantage through the American League Divisional and Championship Series.
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Let’s take a look at what the Blue Jays have to do to clinch a postseason spot, first in the American League East, and the best record in the American League.
<h2>What the Jays have to do to clinch a postseason berth</h2>
At this point, the Blue Jays clinching a playoff spot is only a formality. Barring the Jays losing their remaining nine games, while the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, and Cleveland Guardians reach 90 wins, the Jays will be in the postseason.
The question is, when will the Blue Jays be able to clinch? Well, their second opportunity to do so is on Friday evening, <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/instant-reaction-toronto-blue-jays-fall-4-0-rays-first-shutout-loss-three-months">having failed to do so on Thursday</a>. They’re required to win against the Kansas City Royals, but if two of the Guardians, Tigers, or Red Sox lose on Friday, the Blue Jays will officially be in the postseason.
That said, “making the playoffs” is a small goal; their eyes should be fixated on winning the division.
<h2>What needs to happen for the Jays to clinch the American League East</h2>
As it stands, the Blue Jays have an 89-64 record, the <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/mlb-scrap-plans-toronto-blue-jays-face-yankees-uk-next-season">New York Yankees</a> have an 86-67 record, and the Red Sox have an 83-70 record. They’re three games up on the Yankees and six up on the Red Sox, but the <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/5-teams-blue-jays-hold-tiebreaker-over-and-why-they-matter">Blue Jays have the tiebreaker</a> over both teams, so it’s four and seven games respectively.
The Red Sox’s chances to win the division are slim to none at this point, as seven games to make up in the standings with nine games left is nearly impossible. They’d have to win out their last nine games (three of which are against the Jays), while the Jays have to go 2-7 over their last nine at best. If the Jays win three games, the Red Sox lose three games, or any combination of the two, the Red Sox are out of contention for the division.
Although the Yankees&#8217; chances of winning are slightly better, it seems improbable they’ll win the division. With nine games remaining, the most wins the Yankees can achieve is 95, which is somewhat possible considering they play six more games against the Baltimore Orioles and three against the Chicago White Sox.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-91574" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/09/AL-East-key.png" alt="" width="371" height="218" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/09/AL-East-key.png 371w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/09/AL-East-key-300x176.png 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 371px) 100vw, 371px" />
To match the Yankees if they win out, the Jays would have to go 6-3 to get the tiebreaker to kick in. The Jays play three games against the Royals, Red Sox, and Rays, the latter two at home. As easy as the Yankees’ schedule is, baseball isn’t played on paper, and <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/series-recap-toronto-blue-jays-split-series-rays-penultimate-road-series">good teams lose to bad teams</a> all the time. Over the coming nine-game stretch, a 7-2 record is realistic for the Yankees, giving them 93 wins. To match, the Blue Jays would need to go 4-5 to win the division.
As it stands, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds">Fangraphs gives the Blue Jays a 90.6% chance of winning the division</a>, as well as a 90.5% chance to clinch a bye.
<h2>What needs to happen for the Jays to finish with the best record in the American League</h2>
To clinch a bye, the Blue Jays will need to finish first in the division and have one of the two best records. Even though the Yankees’ 86-67 record is the second-best in the American League, they wouldn’t get a bye unless they overtake the Blue Jays.
The good thing about a bye is that if the Jays are to get one, they don’t have to play in the best-of-three Wild Card Series, <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/minnesota-twins-end-18-game-playoff-winless-skid-with-win-over-blue-jays">where they’ve lost six consecutive games dating back to 2020</a>. What’s even better is that the Jays have a realistic chance of finishing with the best record in the American League, meaning guaranteed home-field advantage until the World Series.
So what has to happen for the Blue Jays to clinch the best record in the AL? Well, if they finished 6-3 or better, they automatically clinch the best record as the only other team that can get to 95 wins is the Yankees, and the Jays have the tiebreaker.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-91575" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/09/AL-Key.png" alt="" width="995" height="216" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/09/AL-Key.png 995w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/09/AL-Key-300x65.png 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/09/AL-Key-768x167.png 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 995px) 100vw, 995px" />
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If the Jays were to go 5-4, the only team that could catch them is the Yankees, who’d have to go 9-0 to surpass them. A 4-5 record would open the door for the Tigers and Astros, who’d each have to win their last remaining nine games to surpass the Jays. It’s worth noting that the Astros are one of just two teams the Jays don’t have a tiebreaker over.
What would cause the Blue Jays some issues is a 3-6 record or below. If they were to go 3-6, the Yankees would have to go 7-2, the Tigers and Astros would have to go 8-1, and the Mariners would have to go 9-0 to catch them.
A 2-7 record over their last nine games would essentially gift the Yankees the division, as they’d have to go just 6-3 over their last nine, where they play the Orioles six times and the White Sox three times. Moreover, a 2-7 record opens a possibility for the Red Sox and Guardians to surpass the Jays. Both teams would have to win out; Boston has nine games, while Cleveland has 10 games.
If the worst-case 0-9 record happens, the Yankees would have to go 4-5, Tigers and Astros 5-4, Mariners 6-3, Red Sox 7-2, and the Guardians 8-2 to surpass the Jays.
Simply put, if any American League team is going to catch the Blue Jays, it would be the Yankees. But it’d require the Jays to have a monumental collapse and the Yankees to go on an impressive streak.
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Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/author/ryley-delaney">Blue Jays Nation</a>, <a href="https://oilersnation.com/author/ryley-delaney">Oilersnation</a>, and <a href="https://flamesnation.ca/author/ryley-delaney">FlamesNation</a>. She can be followed on Twitter <a href="https://x.com/Ryley__Delaney">@Ryley__Delaney</a>.
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There are just nine <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/">Toronto Blue Jays</a> games left this season, so it’s time to talk clinching scenarios.



As it stands, the Blue Jays haven’t even officially clinched a postseason position, but that could change in the near future. With the best record in the American League, there’s a strong possibility that they earn home-field advantage through the American League Divisional and Championship Series.
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Let’s take a look at what the Blue Jays have to do to clinch a postseason spot, first in the American League East, and the best record in the American League.
<h2>What the Jays have to do to clinch a postseason berth</h2>
At this point, the Blue Jays clinching a playoff spot is only a formality. Barring the Jays losing their remaining nine games, while the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, and Cleveland Guardians reach 90 wins, the Jays will be in the postseason.

The question is, when will the Blue Jays be able to clinch? Well, their second opportunity to do so is on Friday evening, <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/instant-reaction-toronto-blue-jays-fall-4-0-rays-first-shutout-loss-three-months">having failed to do so on Thursday</a>. They’re required to win against the Kansas City Royals, but if two of the Guardians, Tigers, or Red Sox lose on Friday, the Blue Jays will officially be in the postseason.

That said, “making the playoffs” is a small goal; their eyes should be fixated on winning the division.
<h2>What needs to happen for the Jays to clinch the American League East</h2>
As it stands, the Blue Jays have an 89-64 record, the <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/mlb-scrap-plans-toronto-blue-jays-face-yankees-uk-next-season">New York Yankees</a> have an 86-67 record, and the Red Sox have an 83-70 record. They’re three games up on the Yankees and six up on the Red Sox, but the <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/5-teams-blue-jays-hold-tiebreaker-over-and-why-they-matter">Blue Jays have the tiebreaker</a> over both teams, so it’s four and seven games respectively.

The Red Sox’s chances to win the division are slim to none at this point, as seven games to make up in the standings with nine games left is nearly impossible. They’d have to win out their last nine games (three of which are against the Jays), while the Jays have to go 2-7 over their last nine at best. If the Jays win three games, the Red Sox lose three games, or any combination of the two, the Red Sox are out of contention for the division.

Although the Yankees' chances of winning are slightly better, it seems improbable they’ll win the division. With nine games remaining, the most wins the Yankees can achieve is 95, which is somewhat possible considering they play six more games against the Baltimore Orioles and three against the Chicago White Sox.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-91574" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/09/AL-East-key.png" alt="" width="371" height="218" />

To match the Yankees if they win out, the Jays would have to go 6-3 to get the tiebreaker to kick in. The Jays play three games against the Royals, Red Sox, and Rays, the latter two at home. As easy as the Yankees’ schedule is, baseball isn’t played on paper, and <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/series-recap-toronto-blue-jays-split-series-rays-penultimate-road-series">good teams lose to bad teams</a> all the time. Over the coming nine-game stretch, a 7-2 record is realistic for the Yankees, giving them 93 wins. To match, the Blue Jays would need to go 4-5 to win the division.

As it stands, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds">Fangraphs gives the Blue Jays a 90.6% chance of winning the division</a>, as well as a 90.5% chance to clinch a bye.
<h2>What needs to happen for the Jays to finish with the best record in the American League</h2>
To clinch a bye, the Blue Jays will need to finish first in the division and have one of the two best records. Even though the Yankees’ 86-67 record is the second-best in the American League, they wouldn’t get a bye unless they overtake the Blue Jays.

The good thing about a bye is that if the Jays are to get one, they don’t have to play in the best-of-three Wild Card Series, <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/minnesota-twins-end-18-game-playoff-winless-skid-with-win-over-blue-jays">where they’ve lost six consecutive games dating back to 2020</a>. What’s even better is that the Jays have a realistic chance of finishing with the best record in the American League, meaning guaranteed home-field advantage until the World Series.

So what has to happen for the Blue Jays to clinch the best record in the AL? Well, if they finished 6-3 or better, they automatically clinch the best record as the only other team that can get to 95 wins is the Yankees, and the Jays have the tiebreaker.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-91575" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/09/AL-Key.png" alt="" width="995" height="216" />

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If the Jays were to go 5-4, the only team that could catch them is the Yankees, who’d have to go 9-0 to surpass them. A 4-5 record would open the door for the Tigers and Astros, who’d each have to win their last remaining nine games to surpass the Jays. It’s worth noting that the Astros are one of just two teams the Jays don’t have a tiebreaker over.

What would cause the Blue Jays some issues is a 3-6 record or below. If they were to go 3-6, the Yankees would have to go 7-2, the Tigers and Astros would have to go 8-1, and the Mariners would have to go 9-0 to catch them.

A 2-7 record over their last nine games would essentially gift the Yankees the division, as they’d have to go just 6-3 over their last nine, where they play the Orioles six times and the White Sox three times. Moreover, a 2-7 record opens a possibility for the Red Sox and Guardians to surpass the Jays. Both teams would have to win out; Boston has nine games, while Cleveland has 10 games.

If the worst-case 0-9 record happens, the Yankees would have to go 4-5, Tigers and Astros 5-4, Mariners 6-3, Red Sox 7-2, and the Guardians 8-2 to surpass the Jays.

Simply put, if any American League team is going to catch the Blue Jays, it would be the Yankees. But it’d require the Jays to have a monumental collapse and the Yankees to go on an impressive streak.

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Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/author/ryley-delaney">Blue Jays Nation</a>, <a href="https://oilersnation.com/author/ryley-delaney">Oilersnation</a>, and <a href="https://flamesnation.ca/author/ryley-delaney">FlamesNation</a>. She can be followed on Twitter <a href="https://x.com/Ryley__Delaney">@Ryley__Delaney</a>.

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