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Looking at the Blue Jays’ rotation to begin the season
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Photo credit: © Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images
Ryley Delaney
Dec 30, 2025, 10:00 ESTUpdated: Dec 30, 2025, 10:06 EST
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The Toronto Blue Jays need to take advantage of a weak schedule to begin the 2026 season.
They host the Athletics for a three-game set to begin the season, then the Colorado Rockies, before jetting off to Chicago for a three-game series against the White Sox. Realistically, they should be 7-2 at the worst after these nine games.
Starting pitching will play a big factor into a good start, which begs the question, how should the Blue Jays set up their rotation in the first week of the season?
Well, Dylan Cease has to be their Opening Day starter, as the Blue Jays signed the 30-year-old to a seven-year deal worth $210 million (with some deferrals). Cease is an electric pitcher with a great arm and incredibly durable. If the Blue Jays can unlock consistency, he’d be a premier arm in the league.
It seems like Cease will have one good year, usually a season that ends with an even number, while his ERA elevates to above 4.50 in a season ending in an odd-number. For example, he had a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings pitched in 2022 and a 3.47 ERA in 189.1 innings pitched in 2024, but had a 4.58 ERA in 2023 and a 4.55 ERA in 2025.
One constant throughout the years is a fantastic FIP. Since 2021, Cease hasn’t finished the year with a FIP higher than 3.72. In those even-numbered years, he had a 3.10 FIP, while posting a 3.72 FIP in 2023 and a 3.56 FIP in 2025.
Cease being the Opening Day starter makes sense, but who’ll start the second game of the season? Well, Kevin Gausman is a good bet to do so. He was the Blue Jays’ best starter in 2025, authoring a 3.59 ERA and 3.41 FIP in 193 innings pitched, with a 24.4 K% and 6.5 BB%.
Gausman had a strong second half, finishing with a 2.81 ERA and 2.76 FIP in 83.1 innings pitched, which included a nine-inning shutout on Sep. 11. Gausman continued to pitch strongly in the postseason, finishing with a 2.93 ERA and 4.21 FIP in 30.2 innings pitched.
After Gausman, there are two realistic options for the series finale against the Athletics, Trey Yesavage or Shane Bieber. Because Bieber’s innings need to be monitored, Yesavage should probably get the nod for this spot.
It’ll be Yesavage’s first time making an Opening Day roster. However, he was an instrumental part to the Blue Jays’ postseason run, as he had a 3.58 ERA and 3.61 FIP in 27.2 innings pitched. Two of those starts were historic, his start in Game 2 of the American League Divisional Series, as well as Game 5 of the World Series. He was so darn good that the rookie pitcher started Game 1 of the World Series.
Assuming Bieber is healthy, he’s a good bet to feature somewhere in the middle of the Jays’ rotation. He may never return to the form he had when he won the American League Cy Young award in 2020, but Bieber had a strong post-Tommy John season, as he had a 3.57 ERA and 4.47 FIP in 40.1 innings pitched.
Even with giving up the game-winning home run in Game 7 of the World Series, Bieber had a solid postseason as well, finishing with a 3.86 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 18.2 innings pitched. Having that type of production from the fourth spot in your rotation is a sign that it’s pretty strong.
The final spot in the rotation will be contested between José Berríos and Cody Ponce if everyone remains healthy. Ponce signed a three-year deal worth $30 million earlier this off-season and will be given a chance to start. He’s not the same pitcher he was before leaving MLB last time, as his velocity has ticked up and he’s added a nasty kick changeup.
With the Hanwha Eagles of the Korean Baseball Organization in 2025, Ponce had a 1.89 ERA and 2.15 FIP in 180.2 innings pitched, with a 36.2 K% and 5.9 BB%. However, if Ponce earns the fifth spot in the rotation and everyone remains healthy, that’d leave Berríos in an awkward spot.
The 2025 season wasn’t a good one for Berríos, who was actually the Blue Jays Opening Day starter last season. In 166 innings pitched, the 31-year-old had a 4.17 ERA and 4.65 FIP, with his velocity ticking down a full mph.
That said, Berríos dealt with injuries throughout the season and the last time he had a rough season back in 2022, he rebounded with a 3.65 ERA in 2023 and a 3.60 ERA in 2024. It’ll be interesting to see what the Blue Jays’ plan is for Berríos heading into next season.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.

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