MLB betting preview (April 16): Braves vs. Blue Jays predictions

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Boston Red Sox during spring training at CoolToday Park.

Photo credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

Apr 16, 2025, 09:47 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will play the rubber match of their three-game series with the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday afternoon at Rogers Centre.

Toronto earned a 6-3 victory on Tuesday after exploding for five runs in the bottom of the fifth inning to ruin our recommended bet yesterday on the first five innings under. Atlanta took the first game of the series by a score of 8-4.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Wednesday’s series finale between the Braves and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365.

Braves vs. Blue Jays odds

Braves moneyline odds	-150
Blue Jays moneyline odds	+125
Runline odds	Braves -1.5 (+110), Blue Jays +1.5 (-130)
Total	Over 7.5 runs (-105), Under 7.5 (-115)
Date/Time	April 16, 1:07 p.m. ET

About the Braves (5-12 SU, 7-10 ATS, 8-7-2 o/u)

The Braves launched three solo homers in a losing cause Tuesday while collecting eight hits. Austin Riley homered for the third time in two games and Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson also went deep. Atlanta batters have recorded 21 total home runs this season, which ranks sixth in the majors. Riley leads the team with five blasts.

Atlanta is averaging just 3.5 runs per game (24th in the majors) on 7.5 hits (19th). Converting with runners in scoring position has been a huge issue for the Braves, who are slashing .197/.289/.364 in those instances to rank near the bottom of the league.

About the Blue Jays (10-8 SU, 14-4 ATS, 7-11 o/u)

It was nice to see the Blue Jays finally utilize the long ball in Tuesday’s win over Atlanta. Both Alan Roden and Anthony Santander went deep, increasing Toronto’s home run total to 11 this year, which ranks 25th in the majors. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette still haven’t gone deep through 18 games, though, which is a little concerning.

Toronto’s starting pitching is the reason why the team is two games over .500 heading into this matchup. Kevin Gausman turned in another excellent start on Tuesday, holding the Braves to two runs on six hits over six innings of work. Toronto starters have a combined 3.45 ERA while allowing opponents to hit just .219 to rank in the upper half of the league. One knock against Toronto’s starters is that they’ve coughed up 18 homers. Only the Milwaukee Brewers (19) have allowed more.

Probable starting pitchers

Atlanta: RHP Spencer Strider (No record)

The Braves are expected to activate staff ace Spencer Strider on Wednesday, roughly one year after he underwent surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament with the modified brace procedure.

He recorded a whopping 27 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings over three rehab starts in the minors and allowed just one run over 5 1/3 innings in his final triple-A start last Thursday. Strider led MLB with 483 strikeouts from 2022 to 2023 and is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when healthy. He was stretched out to 90 pitches in his last outing in the minors, but bettors should expect him to have a shorter leash than usual in his season debut Wednesday and throw roughly 80-90 pitches.

Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (1-0, 0.98 ERA, 10.31 K/9)

We’re not seeing any regression this year from the 36-year-old righty, as he’s been spectacular to start the campaign, allowing just two runs over three starts against the stout lineups of the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and Baltimore Orioles. He’s had a lot of success early on with his sinker, cutter, and curveball, with opposing batters hitting .192 or less against those three pitchers. However, his fastball, split finger, and sweeper have been hit hard.

Notable injuries

Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and pitchers Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder) and Joe Jimenez (knee) are on the injured list for Atlanta. Designated hitter Marcell Ozuna (hip) is day-to-day and will miss Wednesday’s series finale. As previously stated, Strider will be activated from the IL on Wednesday.

As for the Blue Jays, outfielder Daulton Varsho (shoulder) and pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list. Outfielder George Springer is also dealing with a wrist injury and is considered day-to-day.

Weather

The retractable roof at Rogers Centre will be closed due to cold temperatures.

Braves vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The over is 4-0-1 in Atlanta’s last five games.
The over is 4-0 in Toronto’s last four games after the under cashed in 11 consecutive contests.
Toronto has the best record on the runline this season at 13-4 ATS.

Braves vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Myles Straw has hit safely in eight straight games (aside from one where he made a pinch-running appearance). He’s around -145 to get a hit on Wednesday afternoon.
Albies and Riley also boast eight-game hitting streaks. Albies is -215 to get a knock, and Riley is -240.
Santander has hit safely in six straight contests and is -155 to extend that streak.
As previously stated, Riley has homered in back-to-back games with three total during that span. He’s around +450 to go deep in a third straight game and has one homer in 11 career at-bats off Bassitt.
Bryan De La Cruz sees Bassitt well, going 6-for-10 with a homer in his career against the right-hander.

Braves vs. Blue Jays predictions

Riley over 1.5 total bases: +123 (best odds @ BetRivers). Atlanta’s third baseman is on a heater, and he has decent career numbers against Bassitt (.273 batting average and .878 OPS). Riley ranks in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity (93.8 mph), and the 98th percentile in barrel percentage (22.9), so back him with confidence in this spot to stay hot.
Game total under 7.5 runs: -104 (best odds @ Pinnacle). We’re due for a sleepy getaway afternoon game here, especially with an exceptional starting pitching matchup. Lineups haven’t been released yet, but we’ll likely see a few regulars sit with the day game after a night game Tuesday. Runs will likely be at a premium in this contest.