MLB betting preview (Aug. 1): Royals vs. Blue Jays predictions
Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
By Greg Warren
Aug 1, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 1, 2025, 11:57 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will open a three-game series with the Kansas City Royals at Rogers Centre on Friday night.
Toronto just closed out a 4-4 road trip, which included dropping three of four games to the Baltimore Orioles.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is fresh off three consecutive series wins against the Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, and Chicago Cubs.
This is the first of six meetings between these teams this season.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Friday’s series opener between the Royals and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365.
Royals vs. Blue Jays odds
Royals moneyline odds | +130 |
Blue Jays moneyline odds | -155 |
Runline odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+135), Royals +1.5 (-160) |
Game total | Over 8 runs (-110), Under 8 (-110) |
Date/time | August 1, 7:07 p.m. ET |
About the Royals (54-55 SU, 58-51 ATS, 44-64-1 o/u)
The Royals find themselves 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot in the American League following the trade deadline, and they’re a respectable 7-3 in their last 10 games. FanGraphs’ projections give them an 11.6% chance of making the playoffs, and they do have a favourable schedule over the final two months, as their opponents have a combined .499 SOS (11th easiest schedule in MLB).
They made some subtle additions prior to Thursday’s deadline, most notably picking up outfielders Mike Yastrzemski and Randal Grichuk. Kansas City ranks 28th in runs per game (3.6) with just a .682 OPS (25th in baseball), so any additional firepower was sorely needed.
Royals pitchers have allowed just 3.8 runs per game (second in MLB), while owning a very impressive 3.53 team ERA (also second in the majors).
About the Blue Jays (64-46 SU, 65-45 ATS, 58-48-4 o/u)
With a 64-46 record, the Blue Jays find themselves with a 3 1/2-game lead in the AL East heading out of the trade deadline. FanGraphs is giving them a 60.6% chance of winning the division, a 97.7% chance of making the playoffs, and a 7.3% chance of winning the World Series.
Toronto loaded up for the stretch run on Thursday, adding Cleveland Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber and reliever Louis Garland and infielder Ty France from the Minnesota Twins. Earlier in the week, the Blue Jays also acquired reliever Seranthony Dominguez to pitch in a high-leverage role.
Toronto is just 5-5 in its last 10 games as it battles with injuries to key players, which we’ll discuss in a below section of this betting preview.
Probable starting pitchers
Kansas City: RHP Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.53 ERA, 6.90 K/9)
Wacha has allowed exactly one earned run in each of his last three starts to lower his ERA to 3.10 through four July starts. He ranks in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity and the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate. His changeup is lethal against left-handed batters, and his curveball is well above league average. He’s historically struggled against Toronto, though, posting a 1-2 record with a 5.20 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in eight career appearances against the Blue Jays.
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (7-7, 3.82 ERA, 8.95 K/9)
Gausman had an excellent month of July, posting a 1-1 record with a 2.51 ERA across five starts. Perhaps more impressive, though, is that three of those starts were against premium opponents in the New York Yankees (twice) and Detroit Tigers. The veteran’s splitter has returned to elite form this season, holding opponents to a .167 batting average and .181 xBA. His slider is getting smoked by right-handed batters, though, to the tune of a .348 batting average and .652 slugging percentage.
Notable injuries
Pitchers James McArthur (elbow), Michael Lorenzen (oblique), Cole Ragans (shoulder), and Kris Bubic (shoulder) are on the injured list for the Royals. First baseman Jac Caglianone (hamstring) is also on the IL and infielder Jonathan India (shoulder) is considered day-to-day.
Toronto’s IL list is extensive: P Shane Bieber (elbow), P Yimi Garcia (ankle/elbow), P Bowden Francis (shoulder), C Alejandro Kirk (concussion), infielder Andres Gimenez (ankle), and OF Daulton Varsho (hamstring). Outfielder George Springer (head) is considered day-to-day.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 23 C with clear skies on Friday evening in Toronto. Winds will blow in from centre field at 8 mph.
Royals vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The under is 8-1-1 in the past 10 meetings between these teams.
- Kansas City has won five of the past six matchups outright with Toronto.
- The Blue Jays have the best record on the runline (65-45) in the majors.
- The Royals are 32-21 on the runline on the road.
Royals vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Wacha has struck out four or more batters in eight of his last 10 starts, averaging 4.6 per game during that span. He’s -140 to strike out over 3.5 batters.
- Maikel Garcia will carry a seven-game hitting streak into action against the Blue Jays. He’s -205 to extend that streak.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has walked at least once in six straight games and is +140 to do so again.
- Springer has scored at least one run in nine straight games and is +105 to extend that streak.
Royals vs. Blue Jays best bets
- Royals moneyline +140 for one unit (best odds @ Bet99). The Royals are surging right now and present good value as underdogs in this matchup at +140 odds. Toronto is simply too banged up with several key players nursing injuries, although bettors should watch to see if Springer is included in Friday’s lineup and there’s also an outside chance Varsho is activated from the IL after a handful of rehab appearances.
- Under 8.5 runs scored: -120 for one unit (best odds @ PointsBet). Most online sportsbooks have this game total set at eight runs, but we’ll pay the extra juice to get the half run in this instance. Kansas City is one of the best under teams in baseball (44-64-1 o/u record), and Toronto’s offence is nowhere near full strength right now with all of the injuries. The dome should be open at Rogers Centre with pleasant weather conditions expected, but it’s supposed to be a relatively cool evening in Toronto with no humidity and winds blowing in, which should favour the pitchers in this case.