MLB Betting Preview (Aug. 29): Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions
Photo credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Aug 29, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 29, 2024, 11:35 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will wrap up a five-game series with the Boston Red Sox on Thursday night after splitting the first four contests.
The two teams engaged in an old-fashioned pitchers’ duel on Wednesday night, with Brayan Bello, who threw eight shutout innings, getting slightly more run support than Chris Bassitt in Boston’s 3-0 victory.
Toronto grabbed both legs of Monday’s doubleheader before Boston claimed victories in the last two games at Fenway Park.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Thursday’s series finale between the Blue Jays and Red Sox courtesy of bet365:
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | +120 |
Red Sox Moneyline Odds | -140 |
Runline Odds | Red Sox -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170) |
Over/Under | Over 9 runs (+100), Under 9 runs (-120) |
Time/Date | Aug. 29, 7:10 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (65-70 SU, 70-65 ATS, 72-60-3 o/u)
The Blue Jays were held to just two hits — a double from Addison Barger and a single from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — on Wednesday by Bello and Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen, and the poor offensive performance squandered an impressive outing from Bassitt, who threw 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball while striking out nine.
Reliever Brendon Little coughed up a two-run home run to Canadian Tyler O’Neill in the eighth inning, which allowed Boston to pad its lead heading into the final frame. Toronto’s bullpen has been absolutely horrendous this season, coughing up a MLB-leading 79 home runs while combining for a 4.80 ERA, the third-worst mark in baseball.
Betting Boston Red Sox (69-64 SU, 61-72 ATS, 69-57-7 o/u)
The Red Sox gained a game on the Minnesota Twins in the AL Wild Card race on Wednesday, to trim Minnesota’s lead to three games entering play Thursday. Boston has a 24% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs’ projections, so every single game from here on out will be important.
However, the Red Sox should be concerned about the health of their best player, Rafael Devers, who has missed the last two games as he continues to deal with a nagging shoulder injury. Manager Alex Cora said the All-Star third baseman should be back in the lineup on Thursday, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be moving forward. Devers has slashed just .239/.323/.455 in August, his worst month statistically so far this season. It’s difficult to imagine a successful playoff push without a productive final month from Devers.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Bowden Francis (7-3, 4.02 ERA, 8.79 K/9, 1.07 WHIP)
Francis took a no-hitter into the ninth inning of his previous start against the Los Angeles Angels, but it was spoiled by a solo shot off the bat of Taylor Ward. He struck out a career-high 12 batters in that outing, so he’ll be beaming with confidence coming into this start against Boston. Opponents are hitting just .100 off him this month, and he owns a sparkling 1.32 ERA through five August appearances. Francis has just one relief appearance against the Red Sox this year, and he held them scoreless in one inning of work back in June.
Boston: RHP Kutter Crawford (8-11, 4.19 ERA, 8.37 K/9, 1.09 WHIP)
Crawford was one of Boston’s best pitchers in the first half of the season, posting a 6-7 record with a 3.00 ERA with 112 strikeouts over 114 innings prior to the All-Star break. However, he’s been absolutely dreadful since, posting a 2-4 mark with an 8.13 ERA while coughing up 14 home runs over his last seven appearances. He’s in unchartered territory as he closes in on 150 innings this year, and fatigue could certainly be playing a factor in his downturn. Crawford has made one appearance against Toronto this season back in June, but it was cut short due to inclement weather. He tossed 1 1/3 innings of shutout ball with two strikeouts and two walks before the game was suspended and later completed this past Monday.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 17 C and clear skies this evening in Boston. Winds will blow in from right field at 8 mph.
MLB betting trends
- Boston holds a 6-3 SU edge in the season series with Toronto, and the over is 5-4 in those contests.
- The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 28 of their last 40 away games.
- The Red Sox have hit the team total over in 30 of their last 49 games.
MLB player prop trends
- Barger has hit safely in seven straight games and nine of his last 10. He’s -180 to get a hit.
- Masataka Yoshida went 3-for-4 on Wednesday and has now hit safely in six straight games. He’s -240 to get a hit and +130 to record over 1.5 total bases.
- Jarren Duran has homered in three of his last four games. He’s +650 to go deep.
- Francis has struck out seven or more batters in four straight starts. He’s -110 to record over 5.5 strikeouts.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions
- Francis over 5.5 strikeouts: -110. Red Sox hitters are striking out an average of 9.72 times per game, the third-worst mark in the majors. Francis is really dealing right now, and he really excels against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .198/.271/.355 slash line this season. Boston has a surplus of batters from the left side, so it’ll be interesting to see if Cora injects as many right-handed hitters as possible into his lineup card with Francis on the mound. Either way, back Francis to get at least six strikeouts in this spot.
- Blue Jays to lead after five innings: +140. This is a very lopsided starting pitching matchup in favour of Toronto with the red-hot Francis on the mound. Back the Jays to get out front while he’s on the mound, but don’t take them on the full-game moneyline, as their atrocious bullpen can’t be trusted to hold leads.