The Blue Jays will look to respond from another ugly collapse in thee second game of a three-game set at Chase Field. After Toronto took a 4-2 lead in the top of the eighth, Trevor Richards allowed two earned runs in the bottom of the inning, before the Diamondbacks won on a walk-off sacrifice fly in the ninth.

The Diamondbacks moved one game above .500 with the win at 48-47, and are now 7-3 in their last ten games. Toronto dropped to 43-51 overall with the loss, and 5-5 in its last ten.

The Blue Jays are +120 underdogs in Saturday’s matchup as Jose Berrios is set to take on Yilber Diaz. Diaz made an excellent MLB debut Monday versus the Braves, as he worked six innings and allowed just one run from four hits.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Saturday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks:

It feels like we are seeing either the Blue Jays offence struggle or a bullpen blowup in the vast majority of outings now. Last night it was the bullpen costing them a game which simply needed to be a win, and now over the last month Jays relievers have pitched to an ERA of 4.86 with a 4.48 xFIP.

John Schneider would love to see Jose Berrios get deep into this game, and if there is one thing Berrios has done fairly consistently it is get through a reasonable amount of innings in his recent outings.

Berrios enters this matchup in a relatively poor stretch of results in terms of runs allowed, and underlying results. Over his last five starts, Berrios has pitched to an ERA of 6.21. He has allowed an xBA of .268 in those outings and holds a strikeout rate of 18%. He also holds an xFIP of 4.95.

Berrios arsenal is grading out this year, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 92, with a Location+ rating of 102.

It feels like there are some positives amid the Blue Jays lineup right now. Particularly Spencer Horwitz and Leo Jimenez, who are making the most of their opportunity in the big league for the time being.

Over the last 30 days the Blue Jays own a wRC+ of 104, with a slug-rate of .394. They own a wRC+ of 103 against right-handed pitching in particular over that span.

Yilber Diaz made the most of what was a well-earned first career start versus the Braves. While his one earned run across six innings is what matters most, his underlying results were quite sound as well as he allowed an xBA of .219 and a 29% hard-hit rate to go along with his five strikeouts.

Diaz’s minor league success and arm talent suggested he could potentially step into solid big league results right out of the gate. He has pitched to a 4.03 ERA across 76 innings between Triple-A and Double-A this year. In his most recent Triple-A outing, he struck out 16 batters across six no-hit innings, Diaz struck out 11.39 batters per nine in Triple-A behind a triple-digit fastball, a cutter, and a curveball.

The Diamondbacks’ offence continued its strong offensive form in the series opener in managing five runs. Over the last 30 days, the Diamondbacks have hit to a wRC+ of 115, and a .437 slug rate against right-handed pitching in particular. They own the best BB/K ratio in baseball over that time with a mark of 0.55.

Right now Diaz seems like a fairly volatile pitcher to bet on, which makes me feel a little iffy about laying -140 to back the Diamondbacks here, though they are my lean as their offense has been dominant of late and their bullpen still looks to be a clear edge here.

I’m interested in fading Toronto here by backing Yilmer Diaz to record a win at a long number of +215. Diaz is fully stretched out and should be given the opportunity to finish five innings in most reasonable game scripts. He pitched very effectively versus a quality Braves offense in his debut, and could get him some early run support off of Berrios.