MLB Betting Preview (July 19): Tigers vs. Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) slides into home plate and is tagged out by Detroit Tigers catcher Carson Kelly (15) in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park.

Photo credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

Jul 19, 2024, 09:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 19, 2024, 10:45 EDT

The MLB All-Star break is over, and that means the Toronto Blue Jays are back in action on Friday night when they host the Detroit Tigers at Rogers Centre.

Toronto went into the break on a positive note, scoring an 8-7 victory over the Diamondbacks to salvage the finale of a three-game series in Arizona. The Blue Jays went an impressive 5-4 on the West Coast trip that also included stops in Seattle and San Francisco.

Detroit, meanwhile, will be looking for a fourth consecutive series win after impressive showings against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians, and Cincinnati Reds. The Tigers took two of three games from the Dodgers at home just prior to the break and have won four of their last five games overall.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s clash between the Tigers and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:

Tigers vs. Blue Jays odds

Tigers Moneyline Odds	+100
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds	-120
Runline Odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+180), Tigers +1.5 (-220)
Over/Under	Over 7.5 runs (-115), Under 7.5 runs (-105)
Time/Date	July 19, 7:07 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: Apple TV

Betting Detroit Tigers (47-50 SU, 47-50 ATS, 52-42-3 o/u)

The Tigers are making a push to contend for a playoff spot in the American League with the trade deadline looming at the end of the month, but it might be too late. They’re 12 games back of the Guardians in the AL Central Division, and seven games out of the final wild-card spot. However, a sweep against the Blue Jays this weekend to get the team back to .500 could convince the front office to perhaps hold the course and not sell off assets.

Like the Blue Jays, the Tigers have struggled offensively this season. They rank towards the back half of the majors in team batting average (.234 – 24th), on-base percentage (.299 – 26th), and OPS (.686 – 22nd) while averaging 4.3 runs per game (16th).

Detroit took three of four games from Toronto at Comerica Park back in May, winning the last three contests against the Blue Jays.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (44-52 SU, 49-47 ATS, 48-45-3 o/u)

It’s hard to be optimistic about the Blue Jays the rest of the way after a miserable first half of the season. Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, and George Springer have struggled all season and that’s resulted in Toronto being one of the weaker offensive clubs in baseball. The team’s starting pitching has been solid, but the bullpen ranks last in the AL in ERA (4.91) and has coughed up the most home runs in the majors (60).

There’s no question Toronto will be a seller leading up to the trade deadline, with several desirable players on expiring contracts on the roster, such as Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, and Yimi Garcia, among others.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the lone team representative at the All-Star Game. He started at first base and went 0-for-2 at the plate. Vladdy had a great first half of the season, leading the team in nearly every offensive category.

Probable starting pitchers

Detroit: RHP Jack Flaherty (6-5, 3.13 ERA, 11.27 K/9, 0.98 WHIP)

Flaherty has been fantastic for the Tigers this season, but his future with the club is uncertain with his expiring contract and the trade deadline approaching. Several contending teams will be interested in acquiring the 28-year-old’s services for a playoff run, so this could be one of his final starts for Detroit, which signed him to a one-year, $14 million deal last winter. He’s allowed one earned run or less in five of his last six starts, and his 11.27 K/9 mark is on pace to be a new career best. His slider and knuckle curve have been devastating this season, helping him rank in the 95th percentile in breaking pitch run value, according to Baseball Savant.

Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (8-7, 3.52 ERA, 8.39 K/9, 1.43 WHIP)

After a solid month of June (1.95 ERA across six starts), Bassitt has turned in a pair of mediocre outings so far this month. He threw five innings of three-run ball while striking out six last time out against the Giants, and five innings of four-run ball the start before that against the Astros. Like most of Toronto’s starting pitchers, Bassitt’s name is circulating in trade rumours. He’s under contract for $22 million next season, so he’s not just a rental player for a contender.

Weather

The retractable dome at Rogers Centre will likely be open, with pleasant temperatures expected around 22 C and clear skies. Winds will blow in from right field at 10 mph.

MLB betting trends

The Tigers have covered the runline in nine of their last 10 games.
The over is 5-0 in Toronto’s last five games and 19-7 in its last 26 games.
Toronto has covered the runline in six of its last seven games.

MLB player prop trends

Flaherty has posted six or more strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts, including nine last time out against the Blue Jays in May. He’s -125 to record over 5.5 strikeouts.
Tigers catcher Carson Kelly is riding an eight-game hitting streak into action Friday. He’s -200 to get a hit and is 3-for-5 in his career against Bassitt.
Tigers outfielder Riley Greene also entered the break hot, collecting at least one hit in six straight games, including three multi-hit games. He’s -220 to get a hit and is 2-for-6 in his career against Bassitt with a home run.
Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has struck out at least once in nine straight games. He’s -210 to strike out, but he’s 2-for-5 in his career against Flaherty and has never struck out against him.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays predictions

Consider backing Tigers shortstop Zach McKinstry in some capacity in this one. He’s 4-for-13 (.308) with two homers and five RBIs in his career against Bassitt and he went into the break on a positive note, collecting three hits in two games against the Dodgers. He’s an enticing +750 to homer, and -185 to get a hit. He’s also stolen a base in two straight games and is +750 to do so again Friday.
Consider taking the red-hot Tigers on the moneyline here at even-money odds or longer. As of Friday morning, you can find Detroit at +105 on the moneyline if you shop around at online sportsbooks.