After Saturday’s 7-3 loss, the Blue Jays are now five games below .500 at Rogers Centre this season, and 10 games below .500 overall. They will look to Kevin Gausman (4.50 ERA, 104 IP) Sunday afternoon hoping to avoid an embarrassing series sweep at the hands of the Tigers, who will turn to a highly unproven young righty in Keider Montero (5.47 ERA, 26 and 1/3 IP).

Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Sunday’s matchup between the Tigers and Blue Jays:

The atmosphere and mindset around these two clubhouses must feel entirely different at this point, as with four straight wins and eight in the last ten the Tigers are exceeding expectations in the midst of some strong play. Given the Tigers’ strong recent form and superior record, it may look a little surprising to see them priced as a fairly heavy underdog at +135 in this matchup.

The Blue Jays have been the second least profitable team in baseball this season, so oddsmakers having faith in them once again may mean nothing. Montero looks like a fairly unconvincing starter though, and based on prior results the Tigers lineup is also still not getting much respect from oddsmakers for a strong month of play.

In a small sample of 26 and 1/3 innings, Montero has struggled to a 4.82 xERA and a 4.36 xFIP. He has allowed a 1.37 WHIP, and that mark makes sense considering his xwOBA of .342. He also holds a strikeout-to-walk ratio of just 2.30, and that mark has dropped to 1.60 over his last two starts.

Montero holds a chase rate of just 22% this season, and that mark has held true over his last three starts as well.

In a small sample, Montero has pitched to reverse splits, as he has allowed a WHIP of 1.66 against righties and a .590 slug-rate. His xFIP of 5.83 and 7.40 FIP are also significantly worse than his marks against left-handed batters.

Over the last 30 days, the Tigers have hit to a wRC+ of 105 against right-handed pitching with an OPS of .726. They have reduced their strikeout rate to a nearly league-average mark of 22.6% in that span, and feature the lowest hard-hit rate in the league at 26.2%.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has not missed a beat coming off a trip to the All-Star Game in Texas, as he’s gone 5-for-8 in this series for an OPS of 1.750.

Since May 1st Guerrero ranks 13th in MLB among batters to have over 150 PA’s with his wRC+ of 157. He has slugged .529 in that span with an OPS of .907. He holds a .315 xBA in that span and a 57% hard-hit rate which ranks in the 99th percentile of the league.

Maybe those numbers are disappointing relative to the points in Guerrero’s career when AL MVPs looked to be on the table, but they are still elite marks and it’s hard to imagine wanting to watch this team next season without at least one proven star in the lineup in Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero Jr. holds slightly better numbers versus righties overall this season, with a .473 slug rate and .830 OPS. His 56% hard-hit rate versus righties this season ranks 8th in MLB.

Gausman enters this matchup off of two strong starts versus the Mariners and Giants, but certainly still has lots to prove before he is considered an elite starter once again. Over his last five starts, Gausman has pitched to an ERA of 5.59 with an xFIP of 4.40. He has pitched to a K/9 rate of 9.00 in that span, and allowed an xBA of .266.

It looks pretty tempting to back the Tigers right now given the way they are going and how awful things have become in Toronto, but the numbers still look fairly accurate in this matchup when you consider the gap in these starters. Montero has been pretty awful based upon the vast majority of statistics, but that has been in a small sample and his shaky form is well accounted for in this line.

Gausman still looks to be a better starter than his overall numbers suggest, and he has pitched quite well in his last two outings. Still, it’s hard to have much faith backing him at this kind of a number right now.

This does look like a good spot to back Guerrero staying hot in an ideal matchup versus Montero, and at -115 I believe there is value in backing Guerrero to record over 1.5 total bases.