The Blue Jays took advantage of a favourable pitching matchup with a 7-3 victory in Saturday’s matchup, and now have the opportunity to pull off a surprising sweep over the defending World Series champions. Toronto is considered less likely to win Sunday’s matchup as Jon Gray (3.73 ERA, 94 IP) is set to take on Jose Berrios (4.08 ERA, 123 and 2/3 IP).

Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Sunday’s matchup between the Rangers and Blue Jays:

The Rangers gained some ground in the division with a 12-4 stretch of play entering this series and looked poised for a big push in the season’s final third. Particularly considering the offence has more upside on paper than it has shown to this point, and Josh Jung is set to return to the lineup this week.

While the offence may have room to grow, the Rangers’ starting staff has likely overachieved thus far in posting an 11th-best 3.90 ERA. They rank 18th in xFIP and feature a couple of arms outperforming expected results, and we have seen two of their overachievers get crushed in this series Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen.

Gray features a modest underlying profile and has not been finding a ton of success recently after a tremendous start to the campaign. He has pitched to an xERA of 4.47 and an xFIP of 4.09 this season. Over the last six outings, Gray has pitched to an ERA of 4.71 and an xFIP of 5.10. He’s struck out only 4.08 batters per nine in that span and been hard-hit 37% of the time.

Left-handed batters have slugged .454 against Gray this season and hold a WHIP of 1.58. He has pitched to an xFIP of 4.95 versus lefties, and that mark climbs to 5.18 on the road specifically. He has also allowed a .549 slug rate on the road versus lefties.

The Jays’ offence has achieved league-average results against right-handed pitching over the last month, as they have hit to a 15th-ranked wRC+ of 105. They own an OPS of .725 and have slugged .415 in that span, and hold an 11th-ranked hard-hit rate of 33.1%.

Spencer Horwitz has feasted on right-handed pitching this season and should have a great chance to do damage against Gray. In 134 PAs versus righties this season Horwitz holds an .887 OPS versus and has slugged .477.

Horwitz has already seen 10 or more pitches in 5 AB’s this season, which is tied for fourth most in MLB. While Horwitz has not displayed a ton of power, he has displayed elite plate discipline and owns an xSLG rate of .480 thus far.

Kevin Gausman’s complete game came at a perfect time for the Blue Jays, as the bullpen has been a full-fledged disaster over the last six weeks, and is now without the services of Yimi Garcia.

As a result, Jose Berrios is supported by a well-rested bullpen, which is noteworthy given his recent struggles. Over the last five games, Berrios has pitched to an ERA of 6.82 and holds an xFIP of 5.50. He has been hard-hit 46% of the time in that span.

Berrios held a league-average Stuff+ rating of 100 last season, but that mark has tailed off considerably as he now holds a Stuff+ rating of just 91. He has struck out just 18% of batters this season, and that mark drops to just 14% with RISP, which is the fifth-lowest mark in MLB among qualified starters.

Gray has not been in overly strong form of late, but he does still appear to be offering somewhat of an edge over Berrios. The Rangers look to be the side holding slightly more value in this matchup as a result and would be my lean in terms of sides but not quite worth a play.

There does look to be value in backing Horwitz to record over 1.5 total bases in this game at +150. Horwitz matches up quite well with Gray and should have a great chance to record an extra-base hit. His at-bats have been better than his overall stat line suggests in this series, and those have mainly come against lefties.