MLB Betting Preview (July 30): Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions
Photo credit: Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Jul 30, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 30, 2024, 10:57 EDT
It’s a quick turnaround for the Blue Jays on Tuesday after they split a doubleheader with the Orioles in Baltimore on Monday.
Baltimore cruised to an 11-5 victory in the early game Monday before Toronto rebounded with an 8-4 win in the nightcap. The two teams have split eight previous meetings this year, posting a 5-3 over/under record across those contests.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Orioles courtesy of bet365:
Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | +165 |
Orioles Moneyline Odds | -200 |
Runline Odds | Orioles -1.5 (+100), Blue Jays +1.5 (-120) |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 runs (-110), Under 8.5 runs (-110) |
Time/Date | July 30, 6:35 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (50-57 SU, 53-54 ATS, 58-46-3 o/u)
Monday was an incredibly busy day for the Blue Jays both on and off the field. Veteran infielder Justin Turner was traded to the Seattle Mariners during the first game of Monday’s doubleheader and Yusei Kikuchi was also dealt to the Houston Astros earlier in the day. With just hours before the 6 p.m. ET trade deadline on Tuesday, Toronto could make a few more moves as team executives try to shed payroll and players with expiring contracts. Bettors will want to monitor the news cycle before locking in bets on this game, as the Orioles are also expected to be active leading up to the deadline.
On the field, it was a huge day for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who launched homers in both contests of the doubleheader. Vladdy has now homered in three straight games and in eight of his last 13. One of our recommended plays in yesterday’s betting preview was on Guerrero Jr. to go deep in the first contest of the doubleheader, so hopefully you tailed us and cashed in on those +600 odds.
Betting Baltimore Orioles (63-44 SU, 57-50 ATS, 57-39-11 o/u)
The Orioles are holding a slim half-game lead over the New York Yankees in the American League East heading into the trade deadline and action Tuesday. They’re rumoured to be interested in adding a starting pitcher and another reliever, so there could be some major roster developments before the first pitch is thrown later this evening. If Baltimore makes a big splash by adding a significant arm, it could give the team a huge morale boost on the field this evening.
On the field, the Orioles continue to slug their way to success, homering twice in both sides of the doubleheader Monday. They now have a MLB-best 167 homers as a team, led by Anthony Santander’s 30 blasts. Eight players have 10 or more homers on the roster, so the power is balanced throughout the lineup. Toronto has surrendered the most home runs in the majors (144), so expect the O’s to continue smashing the ball on Tuesday evening.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (8-9, 3.78 ERA, 8.47 K/9, 1.41 WHIP)
Bassitt is the probable starter for this game, but it’s entirely possible that he’s dealt prior to the deadline and is a late scratch, despite the team saying it’s not shopping the veteran right-hander. He’s had a rough month of July, posting an ugly 6.23 ERA over his last four starts while issuing 10 walks in just over 21 innings pitched. Bassitt has been a much better pitcher on the road this season, holding the opposition to a .247 batting average while posting a solid 3.18 ERA.
Baltimore: RHP Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.45 ERA, 8.25 K/9, 1.04 WHIP)
Burnes is having an excellent season for the Orioles and is one of the true aces in the AL. He has the second-shortest AL Cy Young Award odds at +150 behind Detroit’s Tarik Skubal (-135) and he’s been solid in his two previous starts against Toronto this season, holding the Blue Jays’ batters to a .213 batting average while allowing just two earned runs over 13 innings. Burnes is 5-2 with a sparkling 2.03 ERA in 11 starts at Camden Yards this season.
Weather
The forecast isn’t looking good for Tuesday evening in Baltimore, with a 90% chance of showers/thunderstorms. Winds will be blowing out to left field at 13 mph.
MLB betting trends
- Toronto has played over the total in 15 of its last 16 games.
- The over is 8-0 in Baltimore’s last eight games.
- The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 22 of their last 32 road games.
MLB player prop trends
- Bassitt has recorded five or more strikeouts in three straight games and eight of his last 10. He’s -150 to record over 4.5 strikeouts.
- Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser extended his hitting streak to 11 games with three hits across Monday’s doubleheader. He’s -225 to get a hit and +130 to record over 1.5 total bases.
- Blue Jays infielder Ernie Clement collected three hits in Monday’s nightcap and has recorded over 0.5 total bases in five straight games. He’s -210 to accomplish the feat again Tuesday.
- As previously stated, Guerrero Jr. has homered in three straight games and is +550 to go deep again Tuesday.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions
- This is a tricky game to handicap for a few different reasons. Firstly, with the trade deadline looming at 6 p.m. ET, each team’s lineup card is unpredictable. Secondly, both teams, and especially their bullpens, are completely gassed after Monday’s doubleheader. And thirdly, the threat of inclement weather could delay this game at some point or even postpone it. If we assume the weather holds off and this game is played without interruption, both managers will be seeking long outings from their respective starters to ease the burden on the depleted bullpens. In this case, it might be worth a look at the odds for both starting pitchers to exceed their expectations in outs recorded: 18.5 for Burnes at roughly even-money odds, and 17.5 for Bassitt at around -150 odds.
- From a player props perspective, how can we not back another big game from Guerrero Jr.? He’s +550 to homer, and +110 to record over 1.5 total bases. For the Orioles, target Gunnar Henderson, who is 3-for-6 with a pair of homers against Bassitt this season. Henderson is +525 to go deep and +105 to record over 1.5 total bases.