MLB Betting Preview (July 31): Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions

Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman (35) celebrates with shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) after scoring during the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Jul 31, 2024, 06:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 31, 2024, 12:16 EDT

There will be some new faces on the roster when the Toronto Blue Jays wrap up a four-game series with the Orioles in Baltimore on Wednesday afternoon.

The Orioles cruised to a 6-2 victory over Toronto behind ace Corbin Burnes on Tuesday night following a busy trade deadline for both teams. Baltimore has taken two of the three games in this series and is aiming for the series win on Wednesday.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Wednesday’s series finale between the Blue Jays and Orioles courtesy of bet365:

Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds

Blue Jays Moneyline Odds	+190
Orioles Moneyline Odds	-230
Runline Odds	Orioles -1.5 (-115), Blue Jays +1.5 (-105)
Over/Under	Over 9 runs (-115), Under 9 runs (-105)
Time/Date	July 31, 12:35 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (50-58 SU, 53-55 ATS, 58-47-3 o/u)

The Blue Jays shipped out eight players, most of them on expiring contracts, from their roster ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline in an attempt to restock their farm system. They added 13 minor leaguers in total across the deals, officially waving the white flag on contending in 2024. Team executives are preaching that the team intends to compete again in 2025, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a full rebuild in Toronto next year. Time will tell.

On the field, Toronto will now audition several minor leaguers over the next two months to see if any of them can potentially stick on the 2025 roster. Handicapping the Blue Jays will be incredibly difficult the rest of the way with so many new faces in the lineup.

Betting Baltimore Orioles (64-44 SU, 58-50 ATS, 57-40-11 o/u)

The Orioles modestly added to their roster for a deep playoff push Tuesday, adding outfielders Eloy Jimenez and Austin Slater, left-handed reliever Gregory Soto and left-handed starter Trevor Rogers. Baltimore didn’t give up any of its top prospects in any of these deals. One issue the Orioles didn’t address is their closer situation, putting faith in veteran Craig Kimbrel to shut the door late in games this October.

Jimenez will be an interesting reclamation project for the Orioles, who will now be tasked with rebuilding the 27-year-old’s confidence after several miserable seasons with the Chicago White Sox. Jimenez earned a Silver Slugger Award in 2020, and his powerful bat does damage when he’s healthy.

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Paolo Espino (0-0, 7.71 ERA, 3.86 K/9, 2.14 WHIP)

Espino has been called up from Triple-A Buffalo to start Wednesday for the Blue Jays. The 37-year-old right-hander has allowed four runs across 4 2/3 innings in two relief appearances this year and hasn’t pitched in the majors since April. His numbers haven’t been very good in the minors this season, logging a 5.09 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 36:18 K:BB in 53 innings.

Baltimore: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (12-4, 3.82 ERA, 9.92 K/9, 1.23 WHIP)

Rodriguez is really hitting his stride in his second MLB season and having an excellent year for the Orioles. The right-hander is coming off a solid outing against the San Diego Padres, in which he allowed two runs over five innings while striking out two batters. His fastball, which averages around 96 mph, ranks in the 86th percentile, and his offspeed run value ranks in the 99th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. His changeup is elite, holding opposing batters to a .150 batting average while accounting for 44 of his 122 strikeouts this season. Rodriguez held the Blue Jays to two runs (one earned) over 6 2/3 innings of work in his only previous start against Toronto in early June.

Weather

It’s going to be a scorcher in Baltimore, with daytime temperatures expected to reach 35 C under sunny skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

MLB betting trends

Toronto has played over the total in 15 of its last 17 games.
The over is 8-1 in Baltimore’s last nine games.

MLB player prop trends

Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser extended his hitting streak to 12 games with a pair of hits Tuesday. He’s a steep -300 to get a hit and -110 to record over 1.5 total bases.
Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander has homered twice in this series and has four bombs over his last seven games. He’s +350 to go deep.
Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remained hot Tuesday with a hit and two walks. He’s slashing an incredible .512/.577/.1.116 with seven homers and 14 RBIs over the last 15 days. He’s +500 to homer and -115 to record over 1.5 total bases.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions

Target the Orioles on the runline at -115 in this spot. This game is important for the Orioles with the New York Yankees right on their heels in the American League East standings, and the Blue Jays must be mentally exhausted after an insanely busy trade deadline. You couldn’t have a more lopsided starting pitching matchup in favour of the Orioles in this spot, and the Blue Jays bullpen is in shambles after Toronto starter Chris Bassitt threw just four innings Tuesday, just one day after the bullpen sustained a heavy workload in Monday’s doubleheader with the O’s. With a day off scheduled for Thursday, Toronto will be anxious to get out of town and try to regroup before Friday’s series opener with the Yankees in New York.
It’s very possible Guerrero Jr. gets the day off Wednesday, but if he’s in the lineup, consider backing him in some capacity during this ridiculous hot streak. He’s 4-for-11 (.364) with a home run in 11 career at-bats against Rodriguez, so the matchup is in his favour.
With hot and humid conditions expected Wednesday afternoon, you can count on the ball continuing to leave the ballpark. The Orioles have hit the most homers in the majors (169) while the Blue Jays have allowed the most home runs (146). Adley Rutschman (+525 to homer) and Santander (+350 to homer) have destroyed Toronto pitching this season, combining for nine homers against the Blue Jays.