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MLB betting preview (July 4): Angels vs. Blue Jays predictions
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Photo credit: © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Nicholas Martin
Jul 4, 2025, 14:49 EDT
After a momentous four-game sweep over the New York Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays will look to avoid a letdown Friday when they open up a three-game series versus the Los Angeles Angels. Toronto was a betting underdog in all four games during its series versus the Yankees, but is a heavy favourite Friday with red-hot lefty Eric Lauer set to face off against Kyle Hendricks.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Friday’s clash between the Angels and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Angels vs. Blue Jays odds

Angels moneyline odds
+140
Blue Jays moneyline odds
-165
Runline odds
Angels +1.5 (-140), Blue Jays -1.5 (+125)
Game total
Over 9.5 runs -195), Under 9.5 runs (-115)
Date/time
July 4, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Angels (43-43 SU, 46-40 ATS, 44-40-2 o/u)

The Angels enter this series 1.5 games back of the Seattle Mariners for the final AL Wildcard spot, and are attempting to snap a ten-season playoff drought. They also have not finished with a record above .500 since the 2015 season.
Most projection systems are quite low on the possibility of the Angels finding a way to snap their playoff drought this season. FanGraphs projects the Angels to finish with 77.3 wins, and offers them only an 8.2% chance of making the playoffs. Bet365 currently lists the Angels at +850 to make the playoffs, implying a probability of 10.5%.
Los Angeles holds an Expected Win-Loss of 38-48, based on its -46 run differential. It ranks 16th in MLB averaging 4.31 runs scored per game, and has allowed 4.85 runs against per game.
The Angels have been in strong form offensively over the last 30 days, though, as they rank ninth with a wRC+ rating of 109. They hold baseball’s highest hard-hit rate in that span and rank 11th in OPS.
They have been considerably less effective versus left-handed pitching than righties this season, as they rank 22nd in wRC+, rank 22nd in BB/K ratio, and 15th in hard-hit rate. Over the last 30 days they rank 16th with a wRC+ of 96 versus lefties, and rank first with a hard-hit rate of 40.3%.
Highly touted rookie Christian Moore suffered a thumb injury during last night’s loss versus the Atlanta Braves, and will be unavailable for this matchup. Joan Moncada started a rehab assignment this week and is close to returning, but will also be unavailable for this matchup. Moncada has had a strong start to the season, slugging .505 with an .841 OPS.
Hendricks finished the 2024 season with a 5.92 ERA and 4.81 xERA, but has offered improved form this season with a 4.66 ERA and 3.91 xERA. He also holds an xFIP of 4.77 and a 10.0% strikeout minus walk-rate. His four-pitch grades out poorly (Stuff+ of 82), but he holds a Pitching+ rating of 92 based on strong command.
The Angels bullpen has been a concern this season, as Angels relievers have pitched to a 27th-ranked ERA of 5.22. They also rank 27th in xFIP, and 24th in strikeout minus walk-rate.

About the Blue Jays (49-38 SU, 53-34 ATS, 48-37-2 o/u)

Nothing is a certainty in baseball, which is always important to keep in mind when gambling, but on paper Hendricks provides a much softer matchup than the Blue Jays have seen over the last four days. Each of the four Yankees starters that pitched in this week’s series had offered far better than average results recently. Toronto displayed an excellent process at the plate throughout the series, grinding out consistently high-quality ABs which led to excellent results versus high-end pitchers.
Over the last 30 days, the Blue Jays rank 5th in wRC+ and fourth in weighted on-base average. They have struck out only 15.9% of the time in that span, which is the lowest mark in MLB by a wide margin, and have received plenty of production from all over the lineup.
Bo Bichette remained out of the lineup in Thursday’s matchup versus the Yankees, but manager John Schneider did note that it is “very realistic” that Bichette will return Friday. Given the number of batters producing effectively, the team is likely playing it safe with regard to Bichette’s return.
The addition of Lauer is looking like a savvy move from the Blue Jays front office, as he has been surprisingly effective, posting a 2.60 ERA in his 45 innings of work. Given his career numbers and expected level of play entering the season, it’s no surprise that most underlying statistics do suggest that Lauer is likely to offer slightly less dominant results moving forward.
However Lauer’s underlying profile is still quite solid overall, even if a sub-three ERA seems unlikely the rest of the way. He holds an xERA of 3.30, an xFIP of 4.15, and a strikeout minus walk-rate of 17.1%. Stranding 88.8% of base runners has been a key causation towards his elite ERA, but even given his expected regression in that area, he still should be a better-than-average starter moving forward.
The Blue Jays bullpen is in pretty rough shape, as the team has not had an off-day since June 23rd. Yariel Rodriguez and Yimi Garcia may be unavailable in this matchup based on their recent usage, and all of the Blue Jays high-leverage relievers have worked several times over the last five days.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • The Blue Jays are 21-13 when playing as an underdog this season.
  • The Blue Jays are 15-4 in their last 19 home games.
  • The Angels are 31-35 when playing as an underdog this season.

Angels vs. Blue Jays best bets

  • Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings -120 (Bet365, Play to -125): Though this game could be viewed as a potential letdown spot after an emotional sweep over the Yankees, a price of -125 for Toronto to win the first five innings does appear to be a great number.
Hendricks has been a well below average starter this season, and the Blue Jays red-hot lineup should be able to manage plenty of hard contact off of him early on. He’s been hard-hit 39% of the time since June 1st while striking out only 18% of batters, and those numbers are concerning considering the Blue Jays excellent approach at the plate recently.
Lauer likely will come down to earth to some extent moving forward, but he still looks to be the superior starter in this matchup and should fare well versus an Angels side that has struggled with left-handed pitching this season.

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